Data-Driven Computational Social Network Science: Predictive and Inferential Models for Web-Enabled Scientific Discoveries

Empirical causal analysis of flood risk factors on U.S. flood insurance payouts:Implications for solvency and risk reduction

This paper presents a regression model that quantifies the causal relationship between flood risk factors and the flood insurance payout in the U.S. The flood risk factors that have been considered in this research are flood exposure, infrastructure vulnerability, social vulnerability, and the number of mobile homes. Historical data for the annual flood insurance payout, flood risk factors, and other control variables were collected for six years between 2016 and 2021 and used in a Mixed Effects Regression model to derive the empirical relationships. The regression model expressed the natural logarithm of the annual flood insurance payout in a county based on the flood risk factors and control variables. The paper presents the regression coefficients that quantify the causal influence. It has been found that all four flood risk factors have statistically significant positive influence on the flood insurance payout in a county. However, the extent of the influence is different for different flood risk factors. Among them, flood exposure has the highest influence on the flood insurance payout, which is followed by the number of mobile homes, infrastructure vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Since the federal flood insurance program in the U.S. has a large debt to the U.S. treasury, the government should plan for effective risk reduction that can reduce the flood insurance payout in future to keep the program solvent. The outcomes of this research are expected to facilitate that decision-making process by providing the empirical relationship between flood risk factors and flood insurance payout.

Disparities and resilience: analyzing online Health information provision, behaviors and needs of LBGTQ + elders during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Prior studies indicate that older members of LGBTQ+ communities have specific health provision and health information needs related to coping with COVID-19, its long-term effects, and the social and economic impact of the pandemic. This study addresses the issue of a lack of timely, complete, and high-quality data about this population's healthcare and healthcare information needs and behaviors. Recognizing also that this is a diverse population made up of multiple communities and identities with different concerns and experiences, this research seeks to develop and refine a method that can provide additional nuanced data and insights that can support improved and more closely targeted health interventions and online information provision.

METHODS

We use computational discourse analysis, which is based on NLP algorithms, to build and analyze a digital corpus of online search results containing rich, wide-ranging content such as quotes and anecdotes from older members of LGBTQ+ communities as well as practitioners, advice, and recommendations from policymakers and healthcare experts, and research outcomes. In our analysis, we develop and apply an innovative disparities and resilience (D&R) framework to identify external and internal perspectives and understand better disparities and resilience as they pertain to this population.

RESULTS

Results of this initial study support previous research that LGBTQ+ elders experience aggravated health and related social-economic disparities in comparison to the general population of older people. We also find that LGBTQ+ elders leverage individual toughness and community closeness, and quickly adapt mentally and technologically, despite inadequate social infrastructure for sharing health information and elders' often low social economic status. The methods used therefore are able to surface distinctive resilience in the face of distinctive disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence that methodological innovation in gathering and analyzing digital data relating to overlooked, disparately affected, and socially and economically marginalized intersectional communities such as LGBTQ+ elders can result in increased external and self-knowledge of these populations. Specifically, it demonstrates the potential of computational discourse analysis to surface hidden and emerging issues and trends relating to a multi-faceted population that has important concerns about public exposure in highly timely and automated ways. It also points to the potential benefits of triangulating data gathered through this approach with data gathered through more traditional mechanisms such as surveys and interviews.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not Applicable.

Limitations of Explainability for Established Prognostic Biomarkers of Prostate Cancer

High-throughput technologies do not only provide novel means for basic biological research but also for clinical applications in hospitals. For instance, the usage of gene expression profiles as prognostic biomarkers for predicting cancer progression has found widespread interest. Aside from predicting the progression of patients, it is generally believed that such prognostic biomarkers also provide valuable information about disease mechanisms and the underlying molecular processes that are causal for a disorder. However, the latter assumption has been challenged. In this paper, we study this problem for prostate cancer. Specifically, we investigate a large number of previously published prognostic signatures of prostate cancer based on gene expression profiles and show that none of these can provide unique information about the underlying disease etiology of prostate cancer. Hence, our analysis reveals that none of the studied signatures has a sensible biological meaning. Overall, this shows that all studied prognostic signatures are merely black-box models allowing sensible predictions of prostate cancer outcome but are not capable of providing causal explanations to enhance the understanding of prostate cancer.

From the Digital Data Revolution toward a Digital Society: Pervasiveness of Artificial Intelligence

Technological progress has led to powerful computers and communication technologies that penetrate nowadays all areas of science, industry and our private lives. As a consequence, all these areas are generating digital traces of data amounting to big data resources. This opens unprecedented opportunities but also challenges toward the analysis, management, interpretation and responsible usage of such data. In this paper, we discuss these developments and the fields that have been particularly effected by the digital revolution. Our discussion is AI-centered showing domain-specific prospects but also intricacies for the method development in artificial intelligence. For instance, we discuss recent breakthroughs in deep learning algorithms and artificial intelligence as well as advances in text mining and natural language processing, e.g., word-embedding methods that enable the processing of large amounts of text data from diverse sources such as governmental reports, blog entries in social media or clinical health records of patients. Furthermore, we discuss the necessity of further improving general artificial intelligence approaches and for utilizing advanced learning paradigms. This leads to arguments for the establishment of statistical artificial intelligence. Finally, we provide an outlook on important aspects of future challenges that are of crucial importance for the development of all fields, including ethical AI and the influence of bias on AI systems. As potential end-point of this development, we define digital society as the asymptotic limiting state of digital economy that emerges from fully connected information and communication technologies enabling the pervasiveness of AI. Overall, our discussion provides a perspective on the elaborate relatedness of digital data and AI systems.