Concurrent threats and extinction risk in a long-lived, highly fecund vertebrate with parental care

Detecting declines and quantifying extinction risk of long-lived, highly fecund vertebrates, including fishes, reptiles, and amphibians, can be challenging. In addition to the false notion that large clutches always buffer against population declines, the imperiled status of long-lived species can often be masked by extinction debt, wherein adults persist on the landscape for several years after populations cease to be viable. Here we develop a demographic model for the eastern hellbender (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis), an imperiled aquatic salamander with paternal care. We examined the individual and interactive effects of three of the leading threats hypothesized to contribute to the species' demise: habitat loss due to siltation, high rates of nest failure, and excess adult mortality caused by fishing and harvest. We parameterized the model using data on their life history and reproductive ecology to model the fates of individual nests and address multiple sources of density-dependent mortality under both deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Our model suggests that high rates of nest failure observed in the field are sufficient to drive hellbender populations toward a geriatric age distribution and eventually to localized extinction but that this process takes decades. Moreover, the combination of limited nest site availability due to siltation, nest failure, and stochastic adult mortality can interact to increase the likelihood and pace of extinction, which was particularly evident under stochastic scenarios. Density dependence in larval survival and recruitment can severely hamper a population's ability to recover from declines. Our model helps to identify tipping points beyond which extinction becomes certain and management interventions become necessary. Our approach can be generalized to understand the interactive effects of various threats to the extinction risk of other long-lived vertebrates. As we face unprecedented rates of environmental change, holistic approaches incorporating multiple concurrent threats and their impacts on different aspects of life history will be necessary to proactively conserve long-lived species.

Land-use change is associated with multi-century loss of elephant ecosystems in Asia

Understanding historic patterns of land use and land cover change across large temporal and spatial scales is critical for developing effective biodiversity conservation management and policy. We quantify the extent and fragmentation of suitable habitat across the continental range of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) based on present-day occurrence data and land-use variables between 850 and 2015 A.D. We found that following centuries of relative stability, over 64% (3.36 million km²) of suitable elephant habitat across Asia was lost since the year 1700, coincident with colonial-era land-use practices in South Asia and subsequent agricultural intensification in Southeast Asia. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000-16,000 km² and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km² (45% of area) to 54,000 km² (~ 7.5% of area). Whereas 100% of the area within 100 km of the current elephant range could have been considered suitable habitat in the year 1700, over half was unsuitable by 2015, driving potential conflict with people. These losses reflect long-term decline of non-forested ecosystems, exceeding estimates of deforestation within this century. Societies must consider ecological histories in addition to proximate threats to develop more just and sustainable land-use and conservation strategies.

Strategies of protected area use by Asian elephants in relation to motivational state and social affiliations

Animals' space requirements may vary according to life-history and social considerations. We observed 516 wild adult Asian elephants from both sexes, over 9 years, to investigate how life-history traits and social behavior influence protected-area (PA) use at Udawalawe National Park, Sri Lanka. Male PA-use, quantified in terms of average between-sightings-interval (BSI), was significantly influenced by the interaction of age class and motivational state (i.e. reproduction vs. foraging). Musth lengthened with age, with a median of 24.5 days for ages 21-30, 32.5 days for ages 31-40, and 45 days for those > 40. A minority (11%) used it exclusively during musth, while others used it exclusively for foraging (44%) or both (45%). Males using it in both states and older musth-only males were more likely to be seen across years. There were 16 social communities containing between 2-22 adult females. Females' BSI was significantly influenced by social ties, but this relationship was weak, because members of social communities do not necessarily disperse together, resulting in high individual variation in space-use. Inter-annual variability in sightings among individuals of both sexes indicates that around ¾ of the population is likely non-residential across years, challenging the prevailing fortress-conservation paradigm of wildlife management.

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range-wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population-specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62-0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.93) and first-year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11-0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age-specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human-caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.

Relaxed Random Walks at Scale

Relaxed random walk (RRW) models of trait evolution introduce branch-specific rate multipliers to modulate the variance of a standard Brownian diffusion process along a phylogeny and more accurately model overdispersed biological data. Increased taxonomic sampling challenges inference under RRWs as the number of unknown parameters grows with the number of taxa. To solve this problem, we present a scalable method to efficiently fit RRWs and infer this branch-specific variation in a Bayesian framework. We develop a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to approximate the high-dimensional, correlated posterior that exploits a closed-form evaluation of the gradient of the trait data log-likelihood with respect to all branch-rate multipliers simultaneously. Our gradient calculation achieves computational complexity that scales only linearly with the number of taxa under study. We compare the efficiency of our HMC sampler to the previously standard univariable Metropolis-Hastings approach while studying the spatial emergence of the West Nile virus in North America in the early 2000s. Our method achieves at least a 6-fold speed increase over the univariable approach. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of our method by applying the RRW to study the correlation between five mammalian life history traits in a phylogenetic tree with $3650$ tips.[Bayesian inference; BEAST; Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; life history; phylodynamics, relaxed random walk.].

Models for Eco-Evolutionary Extinction Vortices under Balancing Selection

AbstractThe smaller a population is, the faster it loses genetic diversity as a result of genetic drift. Loss of genetic diversity can reduce population growth rate, making populations even smaller and more vulnerable to loss of genetic diversity. Ultimately, the population can be driven to extinction by this "eco-evolutionary extinction vortex." While there are already quantitative models for extinction vortices resulting from inbreeding depression and mutation accumulation, to date extinction vortices resulting from loss of genetic diversity at loci under various forms of balancing selection have been mainly described verbally. To understand better when such extinction vortices arise and to develop methods for detecting them, we propose quantitative eco-evolutionary models, both stochastic individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations, linking loss of genetic diversity and population decline. Using mathematical analysis and simulations, we identify parameter combinations that exhibit strong interactions between population size and genetic diversity and match our definition of an eco-evolutionary vortex (i.e., per capita population decline rates and per-locus fixation rates increase with decreasing population size and number of polymorphic loci). We further highlight cues that may be exhibited by such populations but find that classical early-warning signals are of limited use in detecting populations undergoing an eco-evolutionary extinction vortex.