Causal Associations of Urate With Cardiovascular Risk Factors: Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization

Two sample Mendelian Randomisation using an outcome from a multilevel model of disease progression

Identifying factors that are causes of disease progression, especially in neurodegenerative diseases, is of considerable interest. Disease progression can be described as a trajectory of outcome over time-for example, a linear trajectory having both an intercept (severity at time zero) and a slope (rate of change). A technique for identifying causal relationships between one exposure and one outcome in observational data whilst avoiding bias due to confounding is two sample Mendelian Randomisation (2SMR). We consider a multivariate approach to 2SMR using a multilevel model for disease progression to estimate the causal effect an exposure has on the intercept and slope. We carry out a simulation study comparing a naïve univariate 2SMR approach to a multivariate 2SMR approach with one exposure that effects both the intercept and slope of an outcome that changes linearly with time since diagnosis. The simulation study results, across six different scenarios, for both approaches were similar with no evidence against a non-zero bias and appropriate coverage of the 95% confidence intervals (for intercept 93.4-96.2% and the slope 94.5-96.0%). The multivariate approach gives a better joint coverage of both the intercept and slope effects. We also apply our method to two Parkinson's cohorts to examine the effect body mass index has on disease progression. There was no strong evidence that BMI affects disease progression, however the confidence intervals for both intercept and slope were wide.

Detecting potential causal relationship between inflammatory bowel disease and rosacea using bi-directional Mendelian randomization

The association between rosacea and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been studied in previous observational studies. It is unclear, however, whether the association is causal or not. Independent genetic variants for IBD were chosen as instruments from published Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) studies involving 38,155 cases with an IBD diagnosis and 48,485 controls in order to investigate the causal effect of IBD on rosacea. Summarized data for rosacea were gathered from various GWAS studies that included 1195 cases and 211,139 controls without rosacea. Reverse-direction Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was done to investigate the relationship between genetically proxied rosacea and IBD. With the use of the inverse variance-weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, and weighted median approaches, a 2-sample Mendelian randomization study was carried out. Analysis of heterogeneity and sensitivity was performed to examine the pleiotropy and robustness of effect estimates. The forward-direction of the MR study was to reveal that genetic predisposition to IBD including its two main subtypes: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) was associated with an increased risk of rosacea. The reverse-direction MR analyses did not demonstrate that a genetic predisposition to rosacea was associated with total IBD, UC and CD. Our findings provided evidence for a causal impact of IBD, UC, and CD on rosacea, but not vice versa. The elevated incidence of rosacea in patients with IBD should be recognized by doctors to make an early diagnosis and initiate specialized therapy.

Causal relationship between insomnia and tuberculosis: A bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis

Previous observational studies appear to have established a bi-directional association between sleep disorders and tuberculosis. However, their conclusions are prone to be biased by confounding effects and reverse causation due to the nature of observational studies. Mendelian randomization (MR) approach provides unconfounded estimates of causal effects and overcomes the limitations of observational studies. We performed a bi-directional MR analysis to clarify whether there existed a causal effect of insomnia on tuberculosis, or tuberculosis on insomnia. In forward-direction MR, we chose genome-wide significant (P < .5 × 10-8) and independent (r2 < 0.001) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variants (IVs), then extracted effect estimates of these IVs in tuberculosis genome-wide association study (GWAS) dataset to explore causal effect of genetically proxied insomnia on tuberculosis using inverse variance-weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, and weighted median methods. Additionally, we examined robustness and pleiotropy of effect estimates by heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis. Similarly, we investigated causal effect of genetically proxied tuberculosis on insomnia in reverse-direction MR. We revealed no causal relationship between genetically proxied insomnia and tuberculosis using 15 SNPs in forward-direction MR (IVW OR 5.305 [0.100-281.341], P = .410) and reverse-direction MR analysis (ORs and P values were not applicable due to no eligible SNPs in GWAS), with insignificant heterogeneity (Q = 22.6, I2 < 0.001, P = .066) and pleiotropy (intercept = 0.032, SE = 0.057, P = .592) in effect estimates. Our bi-directional MR analysis affirms no causal effect of insomnia on tuberculosis, or tuberculosis on insomnia.

ADHD and its neurocognitive substrates: A two sample Mendelian randomization study

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with a wide array of neural and cognitive features, and other psychiatric disorders, identified mainly through cross-sectional associations studies. However, it is unclear if the disorder is causally associated with these neurocognitive features. Here, we applied a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study to summary GWAS data to explore the presence and direction of a causal effect between ADHD and a range of neurocognitive features and other psychiatric disorders. The inverse variance weighted method was used in the main analysis, and two MR methods (MR-Egger, weighted median) were used for robustness checks. We found that genetic risk for ADHD was causally associated with a decreased area of lateral orbitofrontal cortex. Conversely, we found that brain volume and some features of intrinsic functional connectivity had causal effects on ADHD risk. Bidirectional causal links were found between ADHD and adult general intelligence, as well as depression and autistic spectrum disorders. Such work highlights the important ties between ADHD and general cognitive ability, and suggest some neural features, previously merely associated with the disorder, may play a causal role in its pathogenesis.