Perspective: the challenge of clinical decision-making for drug treatment in older people. The role of multidimensional assessment and prognosis

Clinical prognostic factors for older people: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To explore the accuracy and precision of prognostic tools used in older people in predicting mortality, hospitalization, and nursing home admission across different settings and timings.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective and retrospective studies.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic search from database inception until 01st February 2023 was run in Medline, Embase, Cinhal, Cochrane Library.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies were eligible if they reported accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]) and/or precision (C-index) for the prognostic index in relation to any of the following outcomes: mortality, hospitalization, and nursing home admission.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers extracted data. Data were pooled using a random effects model. The risk of bias was assessed with the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. If more than three studies for the same setting and time were available, a meta-analysis was performed and evaluated using the GRADE tool; other data were reported descriptively.

RESULTS

Among 16,082 studies initially considered, 159 studies with a total of 2398856 older people (mean age: 78 years) were included. The majority of the studies was carried out in hospital or medical wards. In the community setting, only two tools (Health Assessment Tool and the Multidimensional Prognostic Index, MPI) had good precision for long-term mortality. In emergency department setting, Barthel Index had an excellent accuracy in predicting short-term mortality. In medical wards, the MPI had a moderate certainty of the evidence in predicting short-term mortality (13 studies; 11,787 patients; AUC=0.79 and 4 studies; 3915 patients; C-index=0.82). Similar findings were available for MPI when considering longer follow-up periods. When considering nursing home and surgical wards, the literature was limited. The risk of bias was generally acceptable; observed bias was mainly owing to attrition and confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Several tools are used to predict poor prognosis in geriatric patients, but only those derived from a multidimensional evaluation have the characteristics of precision and accuracy.

Using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Clinical Outcomes of Hospitalized Older Persons: A Prospective, Multicenter, International Study

BACKGROUND

Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is useful as a prognostic tool in hospitalized older patients, but our knowledge is derived from retrospective studies. We therefore aimed to evaluate in a multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study whether the MPI at hospital admission is useful to identify groups with different mortality risk and whether MPI at discharge may predict institutionalization, rehospitalization, and use of home care services during 12 months.

METHODS

This longitudinal study, carried out between February 2015 and August 2017, included nine public hospitals in Europe and Australia. A standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment including information on functional, nutritional, cognitive status, risk of pressure sores, comorbidities, medications, and cohabitation status was used to calculate the MPI and to categorize participants in low, moderate, and severe risk of mortality. Data regarding mortality, institutionalization, rehospitalization, and use of home care services were recorded through administrative information.

RESULTS

Altogether, 1,140 hospitalized patients (mean age 84.1 years, women = 60.8%) were included. In the multivariable analysis, compared to patients with low risk group at admission, patients in moderate (odds ratio [OR] = 3.32; 95% CI: 1.79-6.17; p < .001) and severe risk (OR = 10.72, 95% CI: 5.70-20.18, p < .0001) groups were at higher risk of overall mortality. Among the 984 older patients with follow-up data available, those in the severe-risk group experienced a higher risk of overall mortality, institutionalization, rehospitalization, and access to home care services.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of hospitalized older adults, higher MPI values are associated with higher mortality and other negative outcomes. Multidimensional assessment of older people admitted to hospital may facilitate appropriate clinical and postdischarge management.

Gait Speed Test and Cognitive Decline in Frail Women With Acute Myocardial Infarction

Women with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have poorer clinical outcomes than men. Elderly women present high risk of developing frailty and frail women with AMI have a higher prevalence of functional impairments than men on presentation, including physical and cognitive impairment. The Mini-Mental State Examination is a simple test that evaluates global cognitive functions. Gait speed test is a fast, inexpensive, easy measure of physical capacity with documented predictive value for major clinical outcomes. Cognitive and physical decline are very common in frail women, and their prevalence increases with age. On the basis of existing literature, we may speculate that frail women with AMI should be studied with 5-m gait speed test and Mini-Mental State Examination before hospital discharge, for a better evaluation of physical status and global cognitive function.

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index Predicts Falls in Older People: An 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study of the Osteoarthritis Initiative

OBJECTIVES

Falls are associated with several negative outcomes. Early identification of those who are at risk of falling is of importance in geriatrics, and comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) seems to be promising in this regard. Therefore, the present study investigated whether the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), based on a standard CGA, is associated with falls in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

DESIGN

Longitudinal, 8 years of follow-up.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling older people (≥65 years of age) with knee osteoarthritis or at high risk for this condition.

METHODS

A standardized CGA including information on functional, nutritional, mood, comorbidities, medications, quality of life, and cohabitation status was used to calculate a modified version of the MPI, categorized as MPI-1 (low), MPI-2 (moderate), and MPI-3 (high risk). Falls were self-reported and recurrent fallers were defined as ≥2 in the previous year. Logistic regression was carried out and results are reported as odds ratio (ORs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 885 older adults (mean age 71.3 years, female = 54.6%). Recurrent fallers showed a significant higher MPI than their counterparts (0.46 ± 0.17 vs 0.38 ± 0.16; P < .001). Compared with those in MPI-1 category, participants in MPI-2 (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.53‒2.94; P < .001) and in MPI-3 (OR 5.98; 95% CI 3.29-10.86; P < .001) reported a significant higher risk of recurrent falls over the 8-years of follow-up. Similar results were evident when using an increase in 0.1 points in the MPI or risk of falls after 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Higher MPI values at baseline were associated with an increased risk of recurrent falls, suggesting the importance of CGA in predicting falls in older people.

Development and Validation of a Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Negative Health Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Persons

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-based tool that accurately predicts negative health outcomes in older subjects with different diseases and settings. To calculate the MPI several validated tools are assessed by health care professionals according to the CGA, whereas self-reported information by the patients is not available, but it could be of importance for the early identification of frailty. We aimed to develop and validate a self-administered MPI (SELFY-MPI) in community-dwelling subjects. For this reason, we enrolled 167 subjects (mean age = 67.3, range = 20–88 years, 51% = men). All subjects underwent a CGA-based assessment to calculate the MPI and the SELFY-MPI. The SELFY-MPI included the assessment of (1) basic and instrumental activities of daily living, (2) mobility, (3) memory, (4) nutrition, (5) comorbidity, (6) number of medications, and (7) socioeconomic situation. The Bland–Altman methodology was used to measure the agreement between MPI and SELFY-MPI. The mean MPI and SELFY-MPI values were 0.147 and 0.145, respectively. The mean difference was +0.002 ± standard deviation of 0.07. Lower and upper 95% limits of agreement were −0.135 and +0.139, respectively, with only 5 of 167 (3%) of observations outside the limits. Stratified analysis by age provided similar results for younger (≤65 years old, n = 45) and older subjects (>65 years, n = 122). The analysis of variances in subjects subdivided according to different year decades showed no differences of agreement according to age. In conclusion, the SELFY-MPI can be used as a prognostic tool in subjects of different ages.

Evaluating the effectiveness and risks of oral anticoagulant treatments in multimorbid frail older subjects with atrial fibrillation using the multidimensional prognostic index: the EURopean study of older subjects with atrial fibrillation-EUROSAF

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggested that a different risk of mortality may influence the oral anticoagulant prescription in older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) demonstrated a high grade of accuracy, calibration and feasibility to predict mortality in hospitalized and community-dwelling older people. Prognostic information, as calculated by the MPI, however, is not included in the decision algorithm of treatments in older patients with AF PURPOSE: The aim of this international multicenter prospective observational study was to evaluate whether a different prognostic profile, as determined by the MPI, is associated with different treatments for AF (no treatment vs oral anticoagulants) and differences in the main outcomes, i.e., mortality, major thromboembolic events and side effects.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Older hospitalized patients (age ≥ 65 years) with non-valvular AF will be consecutively enrolled in an European, cross-national, prospective, observational study. At baseline, functional and clinical information will be collected to calculate the MPI, CHA2DS2-VASc score, HAS-BLED score, pharmacological treatments (and the compliance during follow-up) and main and secondary diagnoses. During the 12-month follow-up period, information on survival, major thromboembolic events and major bleeding will be collected. For these aims, a sample size of 3000 people was deemed as sufficient.

CONCLUSIONS

The EUROSAF study has the main objective of evaluating in a population of hospitalized older subjects with AF the clinical benefit/risk ratio of the oral anticoagulant treatments in terms of mortality, major thromboembolic events and bleeding side-effects, giving important information regarding the appropriate prescription of anticoagulant therapy in this population. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT02973984.

Association of Antidementia Drugs and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Frail Older Patients With Dementia: The Role of Mortality Risk Assessment

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether treatment with antidementia drugs is associated with reduced mortality in older patients with different mortality risk at baseline.

DESIGN

Retrospective.

SETTING

Community-dwelling.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 6818 older people who underwent a Standardized Multidimensional Assessment Schedule for Adults and Aged Persons (SVaMA) evaluation to determine accessibility to homecare services or nursing home admission from 2005 to 2013 in the Padova Health District, Italy were included.

MEASUREMENTS

Mortality risk at baseline was calculated by the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), based on information collected with the SVaMA. Participants were categorized to have mild (MPI-SVaMA-1), moderate (MPI-SVaMA-2), and high (MPI-SVaMA-3) mortality risk. Propensity score-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 2-year mortality were calculated according to antidementia drug treatment.

RESULTS

Patients treated with antidementia drugs had a significant lower risk of death than untreated patients (HR 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.92 and 0.56; 95% CI 0.49-0.65 for patients treated less than 2 years and more than 2 years treatment, respectively). After dividing patients according to their MPI-SVaMA grade, antidementia treatment was significantly associated with reduced mortality in the MPI-SVaMA-1 mild (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.54-0.92) and MPI-SVaMA-2 moderate risk (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.40-0.91, matched sample), but not in the MPI-SVaMA-3 high risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

This large community-dwelling patient study suggests that antidementia drugs might contribute to increased survival in older adults with dementia with lower mortality risk.

Polypharmacy Is Associated With Higher Frailty Risk in Older People: An 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether polypharmacy is associated with a higher incidence of frailty in a large cohort of North Americans during 8 years of follow-up.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study, follow-up of 8 years.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 4402 individuals at high risk or having knee osteoarthritis free from frailty at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Details regarding medication prescription were captured and categorized as 0-3, 4-6, and ≥7. Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture index as the presence of ≥2 out of (1) weight loss ≥5% between baseline and the subsequent follow-up visit; (2) inability to do 5 chair stands; and (3) low energy level according to the Study of Osteoporotic Fracture definition. Cox's regression models calculating a hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential confounders, were undertaken.

RESULTS

During the 8-year follow-up, from 4402 participants at baseline, 361 became frail. Compared with participants taking 0-3 medications, the incidence of frailty was approximately double in those taking 4-6 medications and 6 times higher in people taking ≥7 medications. After adjusting for 11 potential baseline confounders, participants using 4-6 medications had a higher risk of frailty of 55% (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.22-1.96; P < .0001), whereas those using more than 7 drugs were at approximately 147% (HR = 2.47; 95% CI 1.78-3.43; P < .0001). Each additional drug used at the baseline increased the risk of frailty at the follow-up of 11% (HR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.07-1.15; P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Polypharmacy is associated with a higher incidence of frailty over 8-year follow-up period. Our data suggest evidence of a dose response relationship. Future research is required to confirm our findings and explore underlying mechanisms.

Relation of Statin Use and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Frail Older Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

Clinical decision-making for statin treatment in older patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is under debate, particularly in community-dwelling frail patients at high risk of death. In this retrospective observational study on 2,597 community-dwelling patients aged ≥65 years with a previous hospitalization for CAD, we estimated mortality risk assessed with the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), based on the Standardized Multidimensional Assessment Schedule for Adults and Aged Persons (SVaMA), used to determine accessibility to homecare services/nursing home admission in 2005 to 2013 in the Padua Health District, Veneto, Italy. Participants were categorized as having mild (MPI-SVaMA-1), moderate (MPI-SVaMA-2), and high (MPI-SVaMA-3) baseline mortality risk, and propensity score-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3-year mortality rate were calculated according to statin treatment in these subgroups. Greater MPI-SVaMA scores were associated with lower rates of statin treatment and higher 3-year mortality rate (MPI-SVaMA-1 = 23.4%; MPI-SVaMA-2 = 39.1%; MPI-SVaMA-3 = 76.2%). After adjusting for propensity score quintiles, statin treatment was associated with lower 3-year mortality risk irrespective of MPI-SVaMA group (HRs [95% confidence intervals] 0.45 [0.37 to 0.55], 0.44 [0.36 to 0.53], and 0.28 [0.21 to 0.39] in MPI-SVaMA-1, -2, and -3 groups, respectively [interaction test p = 0.202]). Subgroup analyses showed that statin treatment was also beneficial irrespective of age (HRs [95% confidence intervals] 0.38 [0.27 to 0.53], 0.45 [0.38 to 0.54], and 0.44 [0.37 to 0.54] in 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and ≥85 year age groups, respectively [interaction test p = 0.597]). In conclusion, in community-dwelling frail older patients with CAD, statin treatment was significantly associated with reduced 3-year mortality rate irrespective of age and multidimensional impairment, although the frailest patients were less likely to be treated with statins.

Development of an oncological-multidimensional prognostic index (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients

Purpose

A multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been developed and validated in independent cohorts of older patients demonstrating good accuracy in predicting one-year mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a cancer-specific modified MPI (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients.

Methods

We enrolled 658 new cancer subjects ≥70 years (mean age 77.1 years, 433 females, 65.8 %) attending oncological outpatient services from September 2004 to June 2011. The Onco-MPI was calculated according to a validated algorithm as a weighted linear combination of the following CGA domains: age, sex, basal and instrumental activities of daily living, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, mini-mental state examination, body mass index, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, number of drugs and the presence of caregiver. Cancer sites (breast 46.5 %, colorectal 21.3 %, lung 6.4 %, prostate 5.5 %, urinary tract 5.0 %, other 15.3 %) and cancer stages (I 37 %, II 22 %, III 19 %, IV 22 %) were also included in the model. All-cause mortality was recorded. Three grades of severity of the Onco-MPI score (low risk: 0.0–0.46, medium risk: 0.47–0.63, high risk: 0.64–1.0) were calculated using RECPAM method. Discriminatory power and calibration were assessed by estimating survival C-indices, along with 95 % confidence interval (CI) and the survival-based Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) measures.

Results

One-year mortality incidence rate was 17.4 %. A significant difference in mortality rates was observed in Onco-MPI low risk compared to medium- and high-risk patients (2.1 vs. 17.7 vs. 80.8 %, p < 0.0001). The discriminatory power of one-year mortality prediction of the Onco-MPI was very good (survival C-index 0.87, 95 % CI 0.84–0.90) with an excellent calibration (HL p value 0.854).

Conclusion

Onco-MPI appears to be a highly accurate and well-calibrated predictive tool for one-year mortality in older cancer patients that can be useful for clinical decision making in this age group.

How healthy is community-dwelling elderly population? Results from Southern Italy

PURPOSE

To explore the frequency of polypharmacy, functional and cognitive capacity among the elderly in Southern Italy.

METHODS

Population-based retrospective cross-sectional study. Information were retrieved from electronic-geriatric-forms matched by record-linkage to outpatient pharmacy-records. The following domains were collected from geriatric forms: BMI, cognitive capacity (SPMSQ), functional status (Barthel-index), mobility, living condition. Polypharmacy status was categorized as non-polypharmacy (0-4), polypharmacy (5-9) and excessive-polypharmacy (≥10). Prevalence of all variables were stratified by age and polypharmacy group.

RESULTS

88,878 old people received a geriatric assessment in the years 2013-2014. Mean age was 74.8 (±7.3) years, 56.6% females. Proportion of elderly in excessive-polypharmacy increased with age (18.9% in 65-75 age-group; 27.9% in >85). Referring to cognitive capacity, the proportion of lucid patients decreased with age (from 94.3% to 58.1%), while confused patient increased with age (from 4.7% to 30.9%). Proportion of subjects with a decline in cognitive status, functional status and mobility increased in polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy group.

CONCLUSION

Polypharmacy is common in people aged 65 years and older with difficulties in activities of daily living and impaired cognition. Furthermore, its prevalence raises with increasing age. Preventive strategies such us optimization of drug regimen should be performed routinely to reduce risk of adverse-health-events.