Novel Predictors and Risk Score of Treatment Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis-Related Peritonitis

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting refractory peritoneal dialysis related peritonitis

OBJECTIVE

To identify the risk factors of refractory peritoneal dialysis related peritonitis (PDRP) and construct a nomogram to predict the occurrence of refractory PDRP.

METHODS

Refractory peritonitis was defined as the peritonitis episode with persistently cloudy bags or persistent dialysis effluent leukocyte count >100 × 109/L after 5 days of appropriate antibiotic therapy. The study dataset was randomly divided into a 70% training set and a 30% validation set. Univariate logistic analysis, LASSO regression analysis, and random forest algorithms were utilized to identify the potential risk factors for refractory peritonitis. Independent risk factors identified using multivariate logistic analysis were used to construct a nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibrating ability, and clinical practicality of the nomogram were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 294 peritonitis episodes in 178 patients treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) were enrolled, of which 93 were refractory peritonitis. C-reactive protein, serum albumin, diabetes mellitus, PD duration, and type of causative organisms were independent risk factors for refractory peritonitis. The nomogram model exhibited excellent discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.716-0.847) in the training set and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.627-0.855) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve indicated satisfactory calibration ability of the predictive model. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram model had good clinical utility in predicting refractory peritonitis.

CONCLUSION

This nomogram can accurately predict refractory peritonitis in patients treated with PD.

Persistent peritonitis in peritoneal dialysis: a comphrenesive review of recurrent, relapsing, refractory, and repeat peritonitis

Peritonitis is a major cause of morbidity and technique failure in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. Complicated peritonitis that manifests as multiple or unresolving episodes is classified as refractory, recurrent, relapsing, or repeat peritonitis, and often possesses higher risk of technique failure and mortality as well as lower complete cure rates than primary or uncomplicated episodes. While these peritonitis subtypes affect a considerable portion of PD patients, details regarding their epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, clinical sequelae, and management have not yet been fully elucidated. Improved clinical awareness and understanding of complicated peritonitis subtypes is crucial to ensure optimal management for these patients; thus, we consolidate and report the pertinent findings of recent literature on these four entities.

Random forest can accurately predict the technique failure of peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis patients

Instructions

Peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis (PDAP) is a major cause of technique failure in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. The purpose of this study is to construct risk prediction models by multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms and select the best one to predict technique failure in PDAP patients accurately.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included maintenance PD patients in our center from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2021. The risk prediction models for technique failure were constructed based on five ML algorithms: random forest (RF), the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), decision tree, k nearest neighbor (KNN), and logistic regression (LR). The internal validation was conducted in the test cohort.

Results

Five hundred and eight episodes of peritonitis were included in this study. The technique failure accounted for 26.38%, and the mortality rate was 4.53%. There were resignificant statistical differences between technique failure group and technique survival group in multiple baseline characteristics. The RF prediction model is the best able to predict the technique failure in PDAP patients, with the accuracy of 93.70% and area under curve (AUC) of 0.916. The sensitivity and specificity of this model was 96.67 and 86.49%, respectively.

Conclusion

RF prediction model could accurately predict the technique failure of PDAP patients, which demonstrated excellent predictive performance and may assist in clinical decision making.

Calculated inflammatory markers derived from complete blood count results, along with routine laboratory and clinical data, predict treatment failure of acute peritonitis in chronic peritoneal dialysis patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Complete blood count (CBC)-derived inflammatory markers are predictive biomarkers for the prognosis of many diseases. However, there was no study on patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP). We aimed to investigate the value of these markers in predicting treatment failure of acute peritonitis in chronic PD patients.

METHODS

The records of 138 peritonitis episodes were reviewed and divided into treatment success or failure groups in a single center for 10 years. CBC-derived markers and other routine data were recorded before peritonitis treatment was initiated. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve about the predictors of treatment outcomes were performed.

RESULTS

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and derived NLR were significantly higher in the failure group. Univariate logistic regression results showed that NLR and PLR were risk factors of treatment outcomes. The backward stepwise multivariate logistic regression results demonstrated that NLR [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.376; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.105-1.713; p = .004], PLR (aOR, 1.010; 95%CI, 1.004-1.017; p = .002) were risk factors, but hemoglobin-to-lymphocyte ratio (HLR) (aOR, 0.977; 95%CI, 0.963-0.991; p = .001), and SII (aOR, 0.999; 95%CI, 0.998-1.000; p = .040) were protective factors. A combination of age, PD vintage, Gram-positive peritonitis, staphylococcus aureus, culture-negative, NLR, PLR, HLR, and SII would improve prognostic performance. The area under this ROC curve was 0.85, higher than other factors.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR, PLR, HLR, and SII were associated with PDAP outcomes. Age, PD vintage, NLR, and PLR were significant risk factors in PDAP patients.

Technique failure in peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis: risk factors and patient survival

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the association between patient clinical characteristics and technique failure in peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis (PDRP). The effect of peritonitis-associated technique failure on patient survival was also assessed.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with PDRP from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2022 were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Relevant demographic, biochemical, and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the predictors of peritonitis-associated technique failure in PD. Patients were divided into technique failure (F group) and nontechnique failure (NF group) groups. Patients were followed until death or until the date of Oct 1, 2022. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and landmark analysis were used to assess the survival of the PDRP cohort. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between potential risk factors and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 376 patients with 648 cases of PDRP were included in this study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that peritoneal dialysis (PD) duration (OR = 1.12 [1.03, 1.21], p = 0.005), dialysate WBC count on Day 3 after antibiotic therapy (OR = 1.41 [1.22, 1.64], p = 0.001), blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR = 1.83 [1.25, 2.70], p = 0.002), and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR = 4.13 [1.69, 10.11], p = 0.002) were independent predictors for technique failure in PDRP. Furthermore, serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (OR = 0.28 [0.13, 0.64], p = 0.002) was a protective factor against technique failure. According to the Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients experiencing peritonitis-associated technique failure had lower postperitonitis survival (log-rank = 4.326, p = 0.038). According to the landmark analysis, patients with a history of peritonitis-associated technical failures had a higher 8-year mortality after peritoneal dialysis. A Cox model adjusted for plausible predetermined confounders showed that technique failure was independently associated with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Dialysate WBC count on Day 3, PD duration, NLR, and LDH were independent risk factors for technique failure, whereas HDL was a protective factor. Peritonitis-associated technique failure had a higher risk of mortality and adverse effects on postperitonitis survival.

Comparison of clinical outcomes between culture-negative and positive peritonitis in patients undergoing maintenance peritoneal dialysis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Culture-negative peritonitis is a serious complication in patients undergoing maintenance peritoneal dialysis (PD) and occurs in up to 40% of all peritonitis episodes. Despite its high incidence, data regarding treatment response and prognosis remain poorly defined. This study compared the clinical outcomes of patients with culture-negative and positive peritonitis.

METHOD

This prospective cohort study was conducted between 2021 and 2022. Patients treated with maintenance PD who developed PD-associated peritonitis were included and received standard treatment. The primary endpoint was the primary response (resolution of peritonitis 10 days after the initiation of treatment).

RESULTS

Of the 81 patients who developed PD-associated peritonitis during the study, 35 and 46 had culture-negative and culture-positive peritonitis, respectively. Overall, 52 (64.2%) patients achieved the primary response: 24 (68.6%) in the culture-negative group and 28 (60.9%) in the culture-positive group (p = 0.630). There were no significant differences between the two groups in the incidence of complete cure (complete resolution of peritonitis without the need for Tenckhoff catheter removal or salvage antibiotic therapy or peritonitis within 120 days after treatment) (culture-negative vs. culture-positive group, 57.1% vs. 45.7%), refractory peritonitis (28.6% vs. 41.3%), relapse peritonitis (8.6% vs. 2.2%), repeat peritonitis (11.4% vs. 10.9%), salvage antibiotics (40.0% vs. 50.0%), permanent hemodialysis transfer (11.4% vs. 10.9%), Tenckhoff catheter removal (25.7% vs. 41.3%), or mortality (2.9% vs. 2.2%) (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study offers valuable insights into the clinical outcomes of culture-negative peritonitis versus culture-positive peritonitis. However, caution must be exercised in interpreting these findings due to the limitations of the small sample size.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was retrospectively registered in the Thai Clinical Trials Registry (TCTR20221130006).

Body surface area and treatment failure in peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis

INTRODUCTION

This study mainly discussed the relationship between body surface area (BSA) and treatment failure of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP).

METHODS

The exposures were BSA grouped by the tertiles of BSA levels. The association between BSA and the risk of treatment failure in PDAP, defined as the temporary or permanent switch to hemodialysis and kidney transplantation, was evaluated in Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 483 episodes in 285 patients were recorded in our center. As a three-level categorical variable, in reference to G3, the G1 of BSA displayed a 4.054-fold increased venture of treatment failure in a fully adjusted model. In sensitivity analysis, a lower value of BSA (G1) was identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes (odds ratio = 2.433, 95% confidence interval: 1.184-4.999, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

A lower level of body surface area was remarkably associated with a higher incidence of treatment failure among peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis episodes.

Association between dialysis effluent leukocyte count after initial antibiotic treatment and outcomes of patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Among patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP), It has been regarded as an indicator of deterioration of clinical condition that peritoneal dialysis effluent leukocyte count (PDELC) cannot be restored to normal after initial antibiotic therapy. However, the precise relationship between PDELC on day 5 and the clinical outcomes of PDAP episodes remains uncertain.

AIMS

To explore the association between PDELC on day 5 and clinical outcomes of PDAP episodes.

METHODS

This retrospective study was based on the medical chart database of the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University. Multivariable regressions were used to evaluate the association between PDELC on day 5 and 60-day mortality, half-year mortality, treatment failure, and the length of stay in hospital with adjustment for confounding factors.

RESULTS

A total of 549 PDAP episodes in 309 patients were enrolled. The total 60-day mortality, half-year mortality, and rate of treatment failure was 6.0%, 9.8%, and 14.2%, respectively. Compared with patients with normal PDELC, those with PDELC ≥2000 × 106/L on day 5 had significantly higher 60-day mortality (31.1% vs 2.7%), half-year mortality (35.6% vs 5.6%), and treatment failure (46.7% vs 5.7%). In multivariate adjusted regression, the ORs (95%CI) were 6.99 (2.33, 20.92; p = 0.001), 4.97(1.93, 12.77; p = 0.001), and 5.77 (2.07, 16.11; p = 0.001), respectively. Patients with PDELC were 100-2000 × 106/L on day 5 had a higher rate of treatment failure than those with normal PDELC (26.9% vs 5.7%) (OR = 3.03, 95%CI 1.42, 6.46; p = 0.004). After sensitivity analysis, the results remained robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with PDAP, increased PDELC on day 5 was associated with a greater risk of 60-day mortality, half-year mortality, and treatment failure.

Construction and validation of a predictive model for the risk of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis after peritoneal dialysis catheterization

Aim

To construct and validate a risk prediction model for the development of peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP) in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD).

Methods

This retrospective analysis included patients undergoing PD at the Department of Nephrology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, between January 2016 and January 2021. Baseline data were collected. The primary study endpoint was PDAP occurrence. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 264) and a validation cohort (n = 112) for model building and validation. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression was applied to optimize the screening variables. Predictive models were developed using multifactorial logistic regression analysis with column line plots. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests were used to verify and evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction models. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical validity of the prediction models.

Results

Five potential predictors of PDAP after PD catheterization were screened using LASSO regression analysis, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum ALBumin (ALB), uric acid (UA), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and diabetes mellitus (DM). Predictive models were developed by multi-factor logistic regression analysis and plotted in columns. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values were 0.891 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.829-0.844) and 0.882 (95% CI: 0.722-0.957) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit (p = 0.829 for the training cohort; p = 0.602 for the validation cohort). The DCA curves indicated that the threshold probabilities for the training and validation cohorts were 4-64% and 3-90%, respectively, predicting a good net gain for the clinical model.

Conclusion

NLR, ALB, UA, hsCRP, and DM are independent predictors of PDAP after PD catheterization. The column line graph model constructed based on the abovementioned factors has good discriminatory and calibrating ability and helps to predict the risk of PDAP after PD catheterization.

Development of a clinical risk score system for peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis treatment failure

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to construct a clinical risk score system for peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis (PDAP) treatment failure to provide a theoretical basis for clinical workers.

METHODS

A total of 161 PDAP individuals admitted to our hospital were included, among whom 70 cases were in the treatment-improved group and 87 cases were in the treatment failure group. We compared the general condition, clinical manifestations, and laboratory examination indicators of the two groups of individuals, used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the factors influencing PDAP treatment failure, and developed a clinical risk score system. The diagnostic performance of the risk score system was evaluated utilizing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Significant differences (P < 0.05) were observed between the two groups in terms of contamination, peritoneal fluid culture results, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level, average residual urine (RU) volume, and urea clearance rate (UCR). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that BUN level, CRP level, BNP level, average RU volume, and UCR were independent risk factors affecting PDAP patient treatment outcomes (P < 0.05). The ROC curve analysis of the risk score system for predicting treatment failure in PDAP individuals showed an area under the curve of 0.895 [95% confidence interval (0.847-0.943)]. The optimal cut-off point was 2.5 points, with corresponding sensitivity and specificity of 88.5% and 74.3%, separately.

CONCLUSION

BUN level, CRP level, BNP level, average RU volume, and UCR are independent risk factors for PDAP treatment failure. The clinical risk score system based on these five independent risk factors can accurately predict the risk of treatment failure in PDAP individuals.