Development and Validation of a Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure Undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gastrointestinal stromal tumors in the postimatinib era: A study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort

BACKGROUND

After the standardization, recording and follow-up of imatinib use that significantly prolongs survival of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), a comprehensive reassessment of the prognosis of GISTs is necessary and more conductive to treatment options.

METHODS

A total of 2185 GISTs between 2013 and 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and comprised our training (n = 1456) and internal validation cohorts (n = 729). The risk factors extracted from univariate and multivariate analyses were used to establish a predictive nomogram. The model was evaluated and tested in the validation cohort internally and in 159 patients with GIST diagnosed between January 2015 and June 2017 in Xijing Hospital externally.

RESULTS

The median OS was 49 months (range, 0-83 months) in the training cohort and 51 months (0-83 months) in the validation cohort. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% CI, 0.752-0.802) and 0.7787 (0.7785, bootstrap corrected) in training and internal validation cohorts, respectively, and 0.7613 (0.7579, bootstrap corrected) in the external validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) showed a high degree of discrimination and calibration. The area under the curve showed that the new model performed better than the TNM staging system. In addition, the model could be dynamically visualized on a webpage.

CONCLUSION

We developed a comprehensive survival prediction model for assessing the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS of patients with GIST in the postimatinib era. This predictive model outperforms the traditional TNM staging system and sheds light on the improvement of the prognostic prediction and the selection of treatment strategies for GISTs.

Construction of a web-based dynamic nomogram for predicting the prognosis in acute heart failure

AIMS

The early identification and appropriate management may provide clinically meaningful and substained benefits in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). This study aimed to develop an integrative nomogram with myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality in AHF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective study of 147 patients with AHF who received gated MPI (59.0 [47.5, 68.0] years; 78.2% males) were enrolled and followed for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. We analysed the demographic information, laboratory tests, electrocardiogram, and transthoracic echocardiogram by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression for selection of key features. A multivariate stepwise Cox analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors and construct a nomogram. The predictive values of the constructed model were compared by Kaplan-Meier curve, area under the curves (AUCs), calibration plots, continuous net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis. The 1, 3, and 5 year cumulative rates of death were 10%, 22%, and 29%, respectively. Diastolic blood pressure [hazard ratio (HR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-0.99; P = 0.017], valvular heart disease (HR 3.05, 95% CI 1.36-6.83; P = 0.007), cardiac resynchronization therapy (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.17-0.82; P = 0.014), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (per 100 pg/mL; HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03; P < 0.001), and rest scar burden (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; P = 0.008) were independent risk factors for patients with AHF. The cross-validated AUCs (95% CI) of nomogram constructed by diastolic blood pressure, valvular heart disease, cardiac resynchronization therapy, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and rest scar burden were 0.88 (0.73-1.00), 0.83 (0.70-0.97), and 0.79 (0.62-0.95) at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Continuous net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were also observed, and the decision curve analysis identified the greater net benefit of the nomogram across a wide range of threshold probabilities (0-100% at 1 and 3 years; 0-61% and 62-100% at 5 years) compared with dismissing the included factors or using either factor alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive nomogram for the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with AHF was developed and validated in this study. The nomogram incorporated the rest scar burden by MPI is highly predictive, and may help to better stratify clinical risk and guide treatment decisions in patients with AHF.

Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy for Hypertension Complicated by Refractory Heart Failure: An Analysis of Safety and Nursing Highlights

Objective

This research is aimed at analyzing the safety profile and nursing highlights of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) for hypertension (HT) complicated by refractory heart failure (RHF).

Methods

Sixty-six HT + RHF patients admitted between March 2018 and December 2021 were enrolled and assigned to two groups: a CRRT group with 33 cases treated with CRRT and a control group with 33 cases intervened by routine treatment. The therapeutic effect and alterations of cardiac function (CF) indexes were observed in both cohorts. Besides, statistics were made in terms of serum B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), C-reactive protein (CRP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) concentrations, time of asthma relief, heart rate recovery (HRR), edema resolution, and hospitalization, as well as incidence of adverse reactions (ARs). Finally, pre- and posttreatment psychological quality and pain of both cohorts of subjects were assessed using the self-rating anxiety and depression scale (SAS and SDS) and visual analogue scale (VAS), respectively.

Results

CRRT group exhibited higher overall response rate and better CF than control group (P < 0.05), with lower BNP, CRP, and MAP levels, and shorter time of asthma relief, HRR, edema resolution, and hospitalization (P < 0.05); the incidence of ARs was similar (P > 0.05); for both groups, the scores of SAS, SDS, and VAS reduced statistically after treatment (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

CRRT can effectively improve the therapeutic effect and CF of patients with HT complicated by RHF, to protect the health and safety of patients.

Clinical outcomes of severe sepsis and septic shock patients with left ventricular dysfunction undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy

Baseline left ventricular (LV) dysfunction is associated with subsequent risks of acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in patients with sepsis. This study investigated the therapeutic effects of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in hemodynamically unstable patients with severe sepsis and septic shock combined with LV dysfunction. In this multicenter retrospective study, severe sepsis and septic shock patients with LV dysfunction were classified into one of two groups according to the timing of CRRT: the early group (before AKI was detected) or the control group (patients with AKI). Patients from the control group received an accelerated strategy or a standard strategy of CRRT. The primary outcome was all-cause intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Patients were weighted by stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights (sIPTW) to overcome differences in baseline characteristics. After sIPTW analysis, the ICU mortality was significantly lower in the early group than the control group (27.7% vs. 63.5%, p < 0.001). Weighted multivariable analysis showed that early CRRT initiation was a protective factor for the risk of ICU mortality (OR 0.149; 95% CI 0.051–0.434; p < 0.001). The ICU mortality was not different between the accelerated- and standard-strategy group (52.5% vs. 52.9%, p = 0.970). Early CRRT in the absence of AKI is suggested for hemodynamically unstable patients with severe sepsis and septic shock combined with LV dysfunction since it benefits survival outcomes.

Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram to Predict Improved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Patients With Heart Failure After Successful Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion

Background

Heart failure with improved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFiEF) is linked to a good clinical outcome. The purpose of this study was to create an easy-to-use model to predict the occurrence of HFiEF in patients with heart failure (HF), 1 year after successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO) (CTO PCI).

Methods

Patients diagnosed with HF who successfully underwent CTO PCI between January 2016 and August 2019 were included. To mitigate the effect of residual stenosis on left ventricular (LV) function, we excluded patients with severe residual stenosis, as quantitatively measured by a residual synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery score (rSS) of &gt;8. We gathered demographic data, medical history, angiographic and procedural characteristics, echocardiographic parameters, laboratory results, and medication information. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of HFiEF 1 year after CTO revascularization. A nomogram was established and validated according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curves. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling.

Results

A total of 465 patients were finally included in this study, and 165 (35.5%) patients experienced HFiEF 1 year after successful CTO PCI. According to the LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses, four variables were selected for the final prediction model: age [odds ratio (OR): 0.969; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.952–0.988; p = 0.001], previous myocardial infarction (OR: 0.533; 95% CI: 0.357–0.796; p = 0.002), left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (OR: 0.940; 95% CI: 0.910–0.972; p &lt; 0.001), and sodium glucose cotransporter two inhibitors (OR: 5.634; 95% CI: 1.756–18.080; p = 0.004). A nomogram was constructed to present the results. The C-index of the model was 0.666 (95% CI, 0.613–0.719) and 0.656 after validation. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram agreed with the actual observations.

Conclusions

We developed an simple and effective nomogram for predicting the occurrence of HFiEF in patients with HF, 1 year after successful CTO PCI without severe residual stenosis.