Construction of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Elderly Patients With Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Metastasis pattern and prognosis of large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma: a population-based study

PURPOSE

As a rare type of tumor, the metastasis pattern of large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC) is still unclear. Our aim was to investigate metastatic patterns and develop a predictive model of prognosis in patients with advanced LCNEC.

METHODS

Patients of LCNEC diagnosed between 2010-2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively included. Chi-square test was used for baseline characteristics analysis. Survival differences were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate Cox proportional risk model were used for the construction of nomogram.

RESULTS

557 eligible patients with metastasis LCNEC (median (IQR), 64 (56 to 72) years; 323 males) were included in this research. Among patients with isolated metastases, brain metastases had the highest incidence (29.4%), and multisite metastases had worse OS (HR: 2.020: 95% CI 1.413-2.888; P < 0.001) and LCSS (HR: 2.144, 95% CI 1.480-3.104; P < 0.001) in all age groups. Independent prognostic indicators including age, race, T stage, N stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy and metastatic site were used for the construction of nomogram. Concordance index (C-index) and decision-curve analyses (DCAs) showed higher accuracy and net clinical benefit of nomogram compared to the 7th TNM staging system (OS: 0.692 vs 0.555; P < 0.001; LCSS: 0.693 vs 0.555; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We firstly established a novel comprehensive nomogram to predict the prognosis of metastasis LCNEC. The prognostic model demonstrated excellent accuracy and predictive performance. Chemotherapy and metastasis pattern were the two strongest predictive variables. Close follow-up of patients with LCNEC is necessary to make individualized treatment decisions according to different metastasis patterns.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with stage III-N2 lung adenocarcinoma based on the SEER database

Background

There is variability in the prognosis of stage III-N2 lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients. The current tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging is not sufficient to precisely estimate the prognosis of stage III-N2 LUAD patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database collected first-hand information from a large number of LUAD patients. Based on the SEER database, this study aimed to determine the prognostic factors that affect overall survival (OS) in stage III-N2 LUAD patients and then establish a nomogram for predicting OS in this type of cancer to identify the high-risk population that may require more frequent surveillance or intensive care.

Methods

Data for 1,844 stage III-N2 primary LUAD patients who were registered between 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. These patients were randomly assigned to either training (n=1,290) or validation (n=554) cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression (UCR and MCR) analyses were performed to find the relevant independent prognostic factors. To predict the OS based on these prognostic factors, a nomogram was then developed. The performance of the nomogram was examined based on the calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ability of nomogram to stratify patient risk was validated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results

Age, gender, tumor location, T-stage and treatment modality (chemotherapy, radiation therapy, surgery and scope of lymph node dissection) of stage III-N2 LUAD patients were significantly associated with prognosis. The area under the curve (AUC) values of OS predicted by the nomogram constructed with these factors at 12-, 36- and 60-month were 0.784, 0.762 and 0.763 in the training cohort, whereas 0.707, 0.685 and 0.705 in the validation cohort, respectively. Additionally, calibration curves demonstrated concordance between predicted and observed outcomes. Nomogram risk stratification provides a meaningful distinction between patients with various survival risks.

Conclusions

A survival prediction model that may be useful for risk stratification and decision-making is developed and validated for stage III-N2 LUAD patients. A high-risk patient predicted by the prediction model may require more frequent surveillance or intensive care.

Prediction of lung papillary adenocarcinoma-specific survival using ensemble machine learning models

Accurate prognostic prediction is crucial for treatment decision-making in lung papillary adenocarcinoma (LPADC). The aim of this study was to predict cancer-specific survival in LPADC using ensemble machine learning and classical Cox regression models. Moreover, models were evaluated to provide recommendations based on quantitative data for personalized treatment of LPADC. Data of patients diagnosed with LPADC (2004-2018) were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The set of samples was randomly divided into the training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Three ensemble models were selected, namely gradient boosting survival (GBS), random survival forest (RSF), and extra survival trees (EST). In addition, Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) regression was used to construct the prognostic models. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index), integrated Brier score (IBS), and area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the predictive models. A user-friendly web access panel was provided to easily evaluate the model for the prediction of survival and treatment recommendations. A total of 3615 patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts (n = 2530 and 1085, respectively). The extra survival trees, RSF, GBS, and CoxPH models showed good discriminative ability and calibration in both the training and validation cohorts (mean of time-dependent AUC: > 0.84 and > 0.82; C-index: > 0.79 and > 0.77; IBS: < 0.16 and < 0.17, respectively). The RSF and GBS models were more consistent than the CoxPH model in predicting long-term survival. We implemented the developed models as web applications for deployment into clinical practice (accessible through https://shinyshine-820-lpaprediction-model-z3ubbu.streamlit.app/ ). All four prognostic models showed good discriminative ability and calibration. The RSF and GBS models exhibited the highest effectiveness among all models in predicting the long-term cancer-specific survival of patients with LPADC. This approach may facilitate the development of personalized treatment plans and prediction of prognosis for LPADC.

A nomogram for predicting postoperative overall survival of patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma: A SEER-based study

Background

Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) is a common subtype of non-small cell lung cancer. Our study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) for postoperative LSCC patients.

Methods

A total of 8,078 patients eligible for recruitment between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Study outcomes were 1-, 2- and 3-year OS. Analyses performed included univariate and multivariate Cox regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve construction, calibration plotting, decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier survival plotting.

Results

Seven variables were selected to establish our predictive nomogram. Areas under the ROC curves were 0.658, 0.651 and 0.647 for the training cohort and 0.673, 0.667 and 0.658 for the validation cohort at 1-, 2- and 3-year time-points, respectively. Calibration curves confirmed satisfactory consistencies between nomogram-predicted and observed survival probabilities, while DCA confirmed significant clinical usefulness of our model. For risk stratification, patients were divided into three risk groups with significant differences in OS on Kaplan-Meier analysis (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Here, we designed and validated a prognostic nomogram for OS in postoperative LSCC patients. Application of our model in the clinical setting may assist clinicians in evaluating patient prognosis and providing highly individualized therapy.

Prognostic factors and survival prediction for patients with metastatic lung adenocarcinoma: A population-based study

The prognosis of metastatic lung adenocarcinoma (MLUAD) varies greatly. At present, no studies have constructed a satisfactory prognostic model for MLUAD. We identified 44,878 patients with MLUAD. The patients were randomized into the training and validation cohorts. Cox regression models were performed to identify independent prognostic factors. Then, R software was employed to construct a new nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with MLUAD. Accuracy was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots. Finally, clinical practicability was examined via decision curve analysis. The OS time range for the included populations was 0 to 107 months, and the median OS was 7.00 months. Nineteen variables were significantly associated with the prognosis, and the top 5 prognostic factors were chemotherapy, grade, age, race and surgery. The nomogram has excellent predictive accuracy and clinical applicability compared to the TNM system (C-index: 0.723 vs 0.534). The C-index values were 0.723 (95% confidence interval: 0.719-0.726) and 0.723 (95% confidence interval: 0.718-0.729) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The area under the curve for 6-, 12-, and 18-month OS was 0.799, 0.764, and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.799, 0.762, and 0.746, respectively, in the validation cohort. The calibration plots show good accuracy, and the decision curve analysis values indicate good clinical applicability and effectiveness. The nomogram model constructed with the above 19 prognostic factors is suitable for predicting the OS of MLUAD and has good predictive accuracy and clinical applicability.

Associations of Depression, Anxiety, and Life Events With the Risk of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Evaluated by Berlin Questionnaire

Background

Psychological problems are prevalent in the general population, and their impacts on sleep health deserve more attention. This study was to examine the associations of OSA risk with depression, anxiety, and life events in a Chinese population.

Methods

A total of 10,287 subjects were selected from the Guangzhou Heart Study. Berlin Questionnaire (BQ) was used to ascertain the OSA. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and Zung's self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) were used to define depression and anxiety. A self-designed questionnaire was used to assess life events. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated by using the logistic regression model.

Results

There were 1,366 subjects (13.28%) classified into the OSA group. After adjusting for potential confounders, subjects with anxiety (OR: 2.60, 95% CI: 1.63-4.04) and depression (OR: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.19-2.97) were more likely to have OSA. Subjects suffering from both anxiety and depression were associated with a 3.52-fold (95% CI: 1.88-6.31) risk of OSA. Every 1-unit increment of CES-D score and SAS index score was associated with 13% (95% CI: 1.11-1.15) and 4% (95% CI: 1.03-1.06) increased risk of OSA. Neither positive life events nor adverse life events were associated with OSA.

Conclusions

The results indicate that depression and anxiety, especially co-occurrence of both greatly, were associated with an increased risk of OSA. Neither adverse life events nor positive life events were associated with any risk of OSA. Screening for interventions to prevent and manage OSA should pay more attention to depression and anxiety.

Surgical Treatment is Still Recommended for Patients Over 75 Years with IA NSCLC: A Predictive Model Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Database

Background

To determine the populations who suitable for surgical treatment in elderly patients (age ≥ 75 y) with IA stage.

Methods

The clinical data of NSCLC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the SEER database and divided into surgery group (SG) and no-surgery groups (NSG). The confounders were balanced and differences in survival were compared between groups using PSM (Propensity score matching, PSM). Cox regression analysis was used to screen the independent factors that affect the Cancer-specific survival (CSS). The surgery group was defined as the patients who surgery-benefit and surgery-no benefit according to the median CSS of the no-surgery group, and then randomly divided into training and validation groups. A surgical benefit prediction model was constructed in the training and validation group. Finally, the model is evaluated using a variety of methods.

Results

A total of 7297 patients were included. Before PSM (SG: n = 3630; NSG: n = 3665) and after PSM (SG: n = 1725, NSG: n = 1725) confirmed that the CSS of the surgery group was longer than the no-surgery group (before PSM: 82 vs. 31 months, P < .0001; after PSM: 55 vs. 39 months, P < .0001). Independent prognostic factors included age, gender, race, marrital, tumor grade, histology, and surgery. In the surgery cohort after PSM, 1005 patients (58.27%) who survived for more than 39 months were defined as surgery beneficiaries, and the 720 patients (41.73%) were defined surgery-no beneficiaries. The surgery group was divided into training group 1207 (70%) and validation group 518 (30%). Independent prognostic factors were used to construct a prediction model. In training group (AUC = .678) and validation group (AUC = .622). Calibration curve and decision curve prove that the model has better performance.

Conclusions

This predictive model can well identify elderly patients with stage IA NSCLC who would benefit from surgery, thus providing a basis for clinical treatment decisions.