CD200R Combined Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio Predict 90-Day Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

Predictive value of NLR, Fib4, and APRI in the occurrence of liver failure after hepatectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), fibrosis index based on four factors (Fib4), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) can be used for prognostic evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, no study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma based on these factors.

AIM

To screen the factors that affect the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma and establish a nomogram model that predicts postoperative liver failure after hepatic resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

In total, 220 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated in our hospital from January 2022 to January 2023 were selected. They were divided into 154 participants in the modeling cohort, and 66 in the validation cohort. Comparative analysis of the changes in NLR, Fib4, and APRI levels in 154 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma before liver resection and at 3 mo, 6 mo, and 12 mo postoperatively was conducted. Binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors on the occurrence of liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma patients, roadmap prediction modeling, and validation, patient work characteristic curves (ROCs) to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model, calibration curves to assess the consistency, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the model's validity were also conducted.

RESULTS

Binary logistic regression showed that Child-Pugh grading, Surgical site, NLR, Fib4, and APRI were all risk factors for liver failure after hepatic resection in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. The modeling cohort built a column-line graph model, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.986 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.963-1.000]. The patients in the validation cohort utilized the column-line graph to predict the probability of survival in the validation cohort and plotted the ROC curve with an area under the curve of the model of 0.692 (95%CI: 0.548-0.837). The deviation of the actual outcome curves from the calibration curves of the column-line plots generated by the modeling and validation cohorts was small, and the DCA confirmed the validity.

CONCLUSION

NLR, Fib4, and APRI independently influence posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. The column-line graph prediction model exhibited strong prognostic capability, with substantial concordance between predicted and actual events.

Predictive effect of systemic immune inflammatory index combined with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio on prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

OBJECTIVE

To explore the predictive effect of systemic immune inflammatory index (SII) combined with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 160 patients diagnosed with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-ACLF in Hunan Provincial People's Hospital from June 2022 to June 2023. The patients were divided into a survival group and a death group based on their survival status within 90 days after admission. General data, laboratory indicators, and complications were recorded. The risk factors affecting prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients and the correlation between NLR, SII, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were analyzed, and the predictive effect of NLR and SII on prognosis was evaluated.

RESULTS

Compared to the survival group, the age, MELD score, and incidence of infection of the death group were higher, and the expression levels of total bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, serum creatinine, white blood count, neutrophil, NLR, SII, and international normalized ratio were increased, while the expression levels of alanine aminotransferase, platelets and lymphocytes were decreased (all P<0.05). NLR, SII and MELD score were all risk factors affecting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients (all P<0.001). There was a positive correlation between NLR, SII and MELD score (P<0.001). SII combined with NLR showed good performance in predicting the prognosis within 90 days after admission in ACLF patients.

CONCLUSION

SII combined with NLR has a good prognostic effect on ACLF patients.

CHINAT-CD4 Score Predicts Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Aim

The early prognosis evaluation of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is important to decrease its mortality. We aimed to develop a new score to accurately predict the outcome of patients with ACLF.

Methods

A derivation set of 408 patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) based on the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver criteria is used to develop a prognostic score that was validated in 209 patients with HBV-ACLF and 195 patients with non-HBV-ACLF.

Results

Seven factors were significantly related to the 28-day mortality and constituted a new score (CHINAT-CD4 = 0.320 × ln (creatinine) + 0.668 × hepatic encephalopathy score + 0.745 × ln (international normalized ratio) + 0.476 × ln (neutrophil) + 0.251 × ln (aspartate aminotransferase) + 0.411 × ln (total bilirubin) - 0.605 × ln (CD4+ T cells count)). The C-indices of the new score for the 28-/90-day mortality (0.810/0.806) outperformed those of the other seven scores (p≤0.05). The results were confirmed in a validation set (0.798/793 for HBV-ACLF; 0.790/0.788 for non-HBV-ACLF). The novel score based on CD4⁺ T cell count showed high predictive performance for the 28-/90-day mortality of ACLF.

Conclusion

The novel score based on CD4⁺ T cell count can accurately predict the 28-/90-day mortality for patients with ACLF.