Improving Control of Tuberculosis in Low-Burden Countries: Insights from Mathematical Modeling

Using molecular testing and whole-genome sequencing for tuberculosis diagnosis in a low-burden setting: a cost-effectiveness analysis using transmission-dynamic modelling

BACKGROUND

Despite progress in TB control in low-burden countries like England and Wales, there are still diagnostic delays. Molecular testing and/or whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provide more rapid diagnosis but their cost-effectiveness is relatively unexplored in low-burden settings.

METHODS

An integrated transmission-dynamic health economic model is used to assess the cost-effectiveness of using WGS to replace culture-based drug-sensitivity testing, versus using molecular testing versus combined use of WGS and molecular testing, for routine TB diagnosis. The model accounts for the effects of faster appropriate treatment in reducing transmission, benefiting health and reducing future treatment costs. Cost-effectiveness is assessed using incremental net benefit (INB) over a 10-year horizon with a quality-adjusted life-year valued at £20 000, and discounting at 3.5% per year.

RESULTS

WGS shortens the time to drug sensitivity testing and treatment modification where necessary, reducing treatment and hospitalisation costs, with an INB of £7.1 million. Molecular testing shortens the time to TB diagnosis and treatment. Initially, this causes an increase in annual costs of treatment, but averting transmissions and future active TB disease subsequently, resulting in cost savings and health benefits to achieve an INB of £8.6 million (GeneXpert MTB/RIF) or £11.1 million (Xpert-Ultra). Combined use of Xpert-Ultra and WGS is the optimal strategy we consider, with an INB of £16.5 million.

CONCLUSION

Routine use of WGS or molecular testing is cost-effective in a low-burden setting, and combined use is the most cost-effective option. Adoption of these technologies can help low-burden countries meet the WHO End TB Strategy milestones, particularly the UK, which still has relatively high TB rates.

Transmission analysis of a large tuberculosis outbreak in London: a mathematical modelling study using genomic data

Outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB) - such as the large isoniazid-resistant outbreak centred on London, UK, which originated in 1995 - provide excellent opportunities to model transmission of this devastating disease. Transmission chains for TB are notoriously difficult to ascertain, but mathematical modelling approaches, combined with whole-genome sequencing data, have strong potential to contribute to transmission analyses. Using such data, we aimed to reconstruct transmission histories for the outbreak using a Bayesian approach, and to use machine-learning techniques with patient-level data to identify the key covariates associated with transmission. By using our transmission reconstruction method that accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty, we are able to identify 21 transmission events with reasonable confidence, 9 of which have zero SNP distance, and a maximum distance of 3. Patient age, alcohol abuse and history of homelessness were found to be the most important predictors of being credible TB transmitters.

Management and control of tuberculosis control in socially complex groups: a research programme including three RCTs

Background

Socially complex groups, including people experiencing homelessness, prisoners and drug users, have very high levels of tuberculosis, often complicated by late diagnosis and difficulty in adhering to treatment.

Objective

To assess a series of interventions to improve tuberculosis control in socially complex groups.

Design

A series of observational surveys, evaluations and trials of interventions.

Setting

The pan-London Find&Treat service, which supports tuberculosis screening and case management in socially complex groups across London.

Participants

Socially complex groups with tuberculosis or at risk of tuberculosis, including people experiencing homelessness, prisoners, drug users and those at high risk of poor adherence to tuberculosis treatment.

Interventions and main outcome measures

We screened 491 people in homeless hostels and 511 people in prison for latent tuberculosis infection, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B and hepatitis C. We evaluated an NHS-led prison radiographic screening programme. We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial (2348 eligible people experiencing homelessness in 46 hostels) of the effectiveness of peer educators (22 hostels) compared with NHS staff (24 hostels) at encouraging the uptake of mobile radiographic screening. We initiated a trial of the use of point-of-care polymerase chain reaction diagnostics to rapidly confirm tuberculosis alongside mobile radiographic screening. We undertook a randomised controlled trial to improve treatment adherence, comparing face-to-face, directly observed treatment with video-observed treatment using a smartphone application. The primary outcome was completion of ≥ 80% of scheduled treatment observations over the first 2 months following enrolment. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of latent tuberculosis screening alongside radiographic screening of people experiencing homelessness. The costs of video-observed treatment and directly observed treatment were compared.

Results

In the homeless hostels, 16.5% of people experiencing homelessness had latent tuberculosis infection, 1.4% had current hepatitis B infection, 10.4% had hepatitis C infection and 1.0% had human immunodeficiency virus infection. When a quality-adjusted life-year is valued at £30,000, the latent tuberculosis screening of people experiencing homelessness was cost-effective provided treatment uptake was ≥ 25% (for a £20,000 quality-adjusted life-year threshold, treatment uptake would need to be > 50%). In prison, 12.6% of prisoners had latent tuberculosis infection, 1.9% had current hepatitis B infection, 4.2% had hepatitis C infection and 0.0% had human immunodeficiency virus infection. In both settings, levels of latent tuberculosis infection and blood-borne viruses were higher among injecting drug users. A total of 1484 prisoners were screened using chest radiography over a total of 112 screening days (new prisoner screening coverage was 43%). Twenty-nine radiographs were reported as potentially indicating tuberculosis. One prisoner began, and completed, antituberculosis treatment in prison. In the cluster randomised controlled trial of peer educators to increase screening uptake, the median uptake was 45% in the control arm and 40% in the intervention arm (adjusted risk ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.20). A rapid diagnostic service was established on the mobile radiographic unit but the trial of rapid diagnostics was abandoned because of recruitment and follow-up difficulties. We randomly assigned 112 patients to video-observed treatment and 114 patients to directly observed treatment. Fifty-eight per cent of those recruited had a history of homelessness, addiction, imprisonment or severe mental health problems. Seventy-eight (70%) of 112 patients on video-observed treatment achieved the primary outcome, compared with 35 (31%) of 114 patients on directly observed treatment (adjusted odds ratio 5.48, 95% confidence interval 3.10 to 9.68; p < 0.0001). Video-observed treatment was superior to directly observed treatment in all demographic and social risk factor subgroups. The cost for 6 months of treatment observation was £1645 for daily video-observed treatment, £3420 for directly observed treatment three times per week and £5700 for directly observed treatment five times per week.

Limitations

Recruitment was lower than anticipated for most of the studies. The peer advocate study may have been contaminated by the fact that the service was already using peer educators to support its work.

Conclusions

There are very high levels of latent tuberculosis infection among prisoners, people experiencing homelessness and drug users. Screening for latent infection in people experiencing homelessness alongside mobile radiographic screening would be cost-effective, providing the uptake of treatment was 25–50%. Despite ring-fenced funding, the NHS was unable to establish static radiographic screening programmes. Although we found no evidence that peer educators were more effective than health-care workers in encouraging the uptake of mobile radiographic screening, there may be wider benefits of including peer educators as part of the Find&Treat team. Utilising polymerase chain reaction-based rapid diagnostic testing on a mobile radiographic unit is feasible. Smartphone-enabled video-observed treatment is more effective and cheaper than directly observed treatment for ensuring that treatment is observed.

Future work

Trials of video-observed treatment in high-incidence settings are needed.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17270334 and ISRCTN26184967.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 8, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Impact of Individuals' Attitudes Toward Health Websites on Their Perceived Quality of Health Information: An Empirical Study

Background: A growing number of patients have increasingly used health websites to search and gather health information. Nevertheless, few studies have focused on the driving factors of internet health information quality from the perspective of psychology. Accordingly, this study explores how the attitudes of individuals toward health websites affect their perceived quality of internet health information through the mediation of seeking behavior on treatment information by employing regulatory focus theory. Materials and Methods: We defined six hypotheses that both trust in health websites and expectancy of health websites have a positive impact on emerging and conservative treatment-related online health information seeking; emerging treatment seeking has a negative impact on internet health information quality; and conservative treatment seeking has a positive impact on internet health information quality. Emerging treatment refers to some therapies based on new technologies or research, which is barely used, whereas conservative treatment is more common among the medical field. An online survey involving 336 valid participants was conducted in China. In the research model, all variables were measured using multiple-item scales, and structural equation modeling was employed for testing the hypotheses. Results: The expectancy of health websites significantly affects conservative and emerging treatment-related online health information seeking, but trust in health websites does not. Moreover, trust in health websites strongly affects the expectancy of health websites, and attitudes toward health websites have a strong effect on conservative treatment-related online information seeking. The effect of conservative treatment-related online health information seeking was considerably larger than that of emerging treatment-related online health information seeking on perceived quality of internet health information. Conclusions: From the perspective of health websites operators and public hospitals, conservative treatment and online service might be worth providing and improving. Cooperation between health websites and hospitals might be a good choice.

A cross-sectional survey of the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding tuberculosis among general practitioners working in municipalities with and without asylum centres in eastern Norway

BACKGROUND

The number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Norway is increasing due to immigration from countries with high TB prevalence and few studies have been conducted on general practitioners' (GPs) knowledge of TB in low incidence countries. The main purpose of this study was to explore knowledge, attitudes and practices of TB among Norwegian GPs using a modified Knowledge Attitude Practice (KAP) survey template.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of 30 questions was distributed by email using SurveyMonkey to GPs working in municipalities either with or without an asylum reception centre in Eastern Norway (GPwAS or GPw/oAS). The questionnaire assessed demographic data and had 14 questions on TB knowledge and 7 questions on attitudes and practices. Descriptive and inferential analysis of the data was carried out using SPSS 18.

RESULTS

One hundred ninety five GPs responded and 42% worked in a municipality with an asylum reception centre. There was no significant difference between the two GP groups in relation to demographic variables (all p-values > 0.2). GPwAS were more experienced in diagnosing TB patients compared to GPw/oAS (63.4% vs 44.2%, p = 0.008). There was no significant differences in participation in TB training between the two groups (8.5% vs 7.6%, p = 0.71). The majority of GPs (69%) did not consider TB as a major public health threat and misconceptions of TB epidemiology were identified. Overall, 97 (49.7%) GPs had good TB knowledge level and good TB knowledge level was associated with experience in diagnosing TB patients (p = 0.001) and recent TB training (p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

Gaps in TB knowledge and awareness among GPs in Norway need to be addressed if GPs are to be more involved in TB management and prevention in the future. TB training had an effect on the GPs knowledge level and GPwAS had more experience with TB patients but our survey revealed no major differences in KAP between GPwAS and GPw/oAS.

Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major and growing public health concern. We need to know the expected health burden and treatment cost, and understand uncertainty in those estimates, to inform policymaking and future research. Two models that have been important in informing treatment guidelines and assessments of HCV burden were compared by simulating cohorts of individuals with chronic HCV infection initially aged 20, 35 and 50 years. One model predicts that health losses (measured in quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and treatment costs decrease with increasing initial age of the patients, whilst the other model predicts that below 40 years, costs increase and QALY losses change little with age, and above 40 years, they decline with increasing age. Average per-patient costs differ between the models by up to 38%, depending on the patients' initial age. One model predicts double the total number, and triple the peak annual incidence, of liver transplants compared to the other model. One model predicts 55%-314% more deaths than the other, depending on the patients' initial age. The main sources of difference between the models are estimated progression rates between disease states and rates of health service utilization associated with different disease states and, in particular, the age dependency of these parameters. We conclude that decision-makers need to be aware that uncertainties in the health burden and economic cost of HCV disease have important consequences for predictions of future need for care and cost-effectiveness of interventions to avert HCV transmission, and further quantification is required to inform decisions.

Time to change the single-centre approach to management of patients with tuberculosis: a novel network platform with automatic data import and data sharing

Time to change the single-centre approach to TB http://ow.ly/lCeM30hBcbB.

Comparing different technologies for active TB case-finding among the homeless: a transmission-dynamic modelling study

Homeless persons have elevated risk of tuberculosis (TB) and are under-served by conventional health services. Approaches to active case-finding (ACF) and treatment tailored to their needs are required. A transmission-dynamic model was developed to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of screening with mobile Chest X-ray, GeneXpert, or both. Effectiveness of ACF depends upon the prevalence of infection in the population (which determines screening 'yield'), patient willingness to wait for GeneXpert results, and treatment adherence. ACF is efficient when TB prevalence exceeds 78/100,000 and 46% of drug sensitive TB cases and 33% of multi-drug resistant TB cases complete treatment. This threshold increases to 92/100,000 if additional post-ACF enhanced case management (ECM) increases treatment completion to 85%. Generally, the most efficient option is one-step screening of all patients with GeneXpert, but if too many patients (>27% without ECM, >19% with ECM) are unwilling to wait the 90 minutes required then two-step screening using chest X-ray (which is rapid) followed by GeneXpert for confirmation of TB is the most efficient option. Targeted ACF and support services benefit health through early successful treatment and averting TB transmission and disease. The optimal strategy is setting-specific, requiring careful consideration of patients' needs regarding testing and treatment.