Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Long Trend of Mortality for Stroke and Subtypes Attributed to High SBP in Chinese Adults

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

Background

This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.

Results

Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Conclusions

Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Forecasting the Worldwide Impact of Stroke for Individuals Aged 45 and Above

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the global impact of stroke in people aged 45 years and older between 1990 and 2030, focusing on morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

METHODS

Generalized additive models were used to project disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and stroke burden was investigated, and regional differences were assessed by Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

The overall age-standardized stroke incidence rate (ASIR) among adults aged 45 years and older is projected to increase from 2020 to 2030, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 1.29. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.48, and the age-standardized DALY in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.66. By 2030, men are expected to have higher ASIR (181.81) and ASDR (87.31) than women (ASIR: 151.85, ASDR: 65.20). Regional differences are large. East Asia is expected to have the highest ASIR in 2030 (265.55). Age estimates show that older age groups, particularly those aged 75-79, are at higher risk of stroke. In addition, there is a significant inverse relationship between SDI and stroke severity, with areas with higher SDI tending to have lower morbidity, mortality, and DALYs.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2030, ASIR is expected to upgrade, especially in East Asia and regions with lower SDI. Men will bear a greater burden than women.

Age-period-cohort analysis of ischemic stroke deaths attributable to physical inactivity in different income regions

This study assessed the global and regional burden of IS (ischemic stroke) deaths due to LPA (low physical activity) from 1990 to 2019, analyzed regional, sex, and age differences in ASMR (age-standardized mortality rate), and provided a comprehensive understanding of the impact of age, period, and cohort on low physical activity related ischemic stroke ASMR. We conducted an APC (age-period-cohort) analysis of the global and four World Bank income level regions' IS mortality data attributed to LPA from 1990 to 2019, using the GBD2019 database, and the results showed that the global net drift of the Ischemic stroke age-standardized mortality attributable to low physical activity was - 1.085%[95% CI: - 1.168, - 1.003].The ASMR drop is most pronounced in the high-income zone, with a net drift of - 2.473% [95% CI: - 2.759, - 2.187] across the four income groups. The influence of age on mortality is increasing in the worldwide old population, while the period and cohort effects are decreasing. We also performed a Joinpoint regression analysis, which revealed that the specific time of considerable drop in ASMR of IS in the global LPA population was 2002-2007, with an APC of -2.628%. The specific period of considerable drop in ASMR in high-income regions with the highest variation was 1999-2007, with an APC = - 4.726%. The global burden of public health deaths caused by LPA is diminishing, with the most notable progress observed in high-income regions. However, in low and lower-middle income areas, the situation continues to deteriorate. Within the global elderly population, the effects of age on mortality is increasing, while the effects of period and cohort are diminishing. These trends vary across income levels, highlighting the necessity for enhanced international collaboration to formulate context-specific public health strategies aimed at enhancing cardiovascular health on a global, regional, and national scale.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Ischemic Stroke Mortality in China Caused by Specific Risk Factors from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to study the primary risk factors for the long-term trends of mortality rates in ischemic stroke (IS) in China.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database, research was conducted on the 11 primary risk factors for the mortality rates of IS in China from 1990 to 2019. This study employed joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort method to evaluate the trends of mortality rates divided by age, period, and cohort over time.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) caused by a diet high in red meat and high body mass index in China showed an upward trend. ASMR increased first and then decreased due to smoking, diet high in sodium, particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose, and high systolic blood pressure. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), kidney dysfunction, low temperature, and lead exposure remained relatively stable during this period. In the 35-45 age group, the mortality rate of IS due to high LDL-C was up to about 60%, and smoking affected men more than women. Overall, high LDL-C, high systolic blood pressure, and particulate matter pollution were the most common risk factors in patients with IS. The risk of death rose with age. The period and cohort relative risks showed that metabolic risk factors had the greatest impact on the mortality of IS.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic risk factors have become the primary risk factors for the ASMR of IS in China. Relevant authorities should pay attention to their long-term effects on IS. Effective public health policies and interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of IS.

Temporal trends in mortality of tuberculosis attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Nowadays, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been identified as the important risk factor contributing to the increased burden of diseases. But there remains a lack of research on tuberculosis (TB) mortality specifically attributable to HFPG. Thus, this study aims to explore the long-term trends in HFPG-related TB mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on HFPG-related TB mortality were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Analyzing the data using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort methods adjusting for age, period, and cohort allowed us to assess the trends in TB mortality due to HFPG.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of TB attributable to HFPG exhibited a downward trend in China from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -7.0 (95% CI, -7.5 to -6.6). Similar trends were found for male (AAPC of -6.5 [95% CI, -7.0 to -6.0]) and female (AAPC of -8.2 [95% CI, -8.5 to -7.9]), respectively. Local drifts curve with a U-shaped pattern reflected the AAPC of TB mortality due to HFPG across age groups. The greatest decline was observed in the age group of 60-64 years. The mortality rates related to HFPG first increased and then decreased with increasing age, peaking in the 55-59 age group. Our analysis of the period and cohort effects found that the rate ratios of TB mortality due to HFPG have decreased over the past three decades, more prominently in women. It is noteworthy that while both genders have seen a decline in HFPG-attributable TB mortality and risk, men have a higher risk and slightly less significant decline than women.

Conclusion

The present study shows that HFPG-related ASMRs and risk of TB in China decreased over the last 30 years, with similar trends observed in both men and women. In order to attain the recommended level set by the WHO, the effective strategies for glycemic control and management still needed to be implemented strictly to further decrease the burden of TB.

Imaging and Hemodynamic Characteristics of Vulnerable Carotid Plaques and Artificial Intelligence Applications in Plaque Classification and Segmentation

Stroke is a massive public health problem. The rupture of vulnerable carotid atherosclerotic plaques is the most common cause of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) across the world. Currently, vessel wall high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (VW-HRMRI) is the most appropriate and cost-effective imaging technique to characterize carotid plaque vulnerability and plays an important role in promoting early diagnosis and guiding aggressive clinical therapy to reduce the risk of plaque rupture and AIS. In recent years, great progress has been made in imaging research on vulnerable carotid plaques. This review summarizes developments in the imaging and hemodynamic characteristics of vulnerable carotid plaques on the basis of VW-HRMRI and four-dimensional (4D) flow MRI, and it discusses the relationship between these characteristics and ischemic stroke. In addition, the applications of artificial intelligence in plaque classification and segmentation are reviewed.

Development of stroke predictive model in community-dwelling population: A longitudinal cohort study in Southeast China

Background

Stroke has been the leading cause of death and disability in the world. Early recognition and treatment of stroke could effectively limit brain damage and vastly improve outcomes. This study aims to develop a highly accurate prediction model of stroke with a list of lifestyle behaviors and clinical characteristics to distinguish high-risk groups in the community-dwelling population.

Methods

Participants in this longitudinal cohort study came from the community-dwelling population in Suzhou between November 2018 and June 2019. A total of 4,503 residents participated in the study, while stroke happened to 22 participants in the 2-year follow-up period. Baseline information of each participant was acquired and enrolled in this study. T-test, Chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test were used to examine the relationship of these indexes with stroke, and a prediction scale was constructed by multivariate logistic regression afterward. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to testify to the prediction accuracy.

Results

A highly accurate prediction model of stroke was constructed by age, gender, exercise, meat and vegetarian diet, BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, Chinese visceral adiposity index, and waist-height ratio. Two additional prediction models for overweight and non-overweight individuals were formulated based on crucial risk factors, respectively. The stroke risk prediction models for community-dwelling and overweight populations had accuracies of 0.79 and 0.82, severally. Gender and exercise were significant predictors (χ² > 4.57, p < 0.05) in the community-dwelling population model, while homocysteine (χ² = 4.95, p < 0.05) was significant in the overweight population model.

Conclusion

The predictive models could predict 2-year stroke with high accuracy. The models provided an effective tool for identifying high-risk groups and supplied guidance for improving prevention and treatment strategies in community-dwelling population.

Stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea: An age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis

The high intake of red meat is well recognized as a major health concern worldwide. It has been recognized as a risk factor for several non-communicable chronic diseases, including stroke. However, previously published studies have not performed a comprehensive analysis of the long-time trend of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake in China and South Korea, two countries with similar dietary patterns and changing trends. Therefore, this study aimed to reveal the influence of age, time period, and birth cohort on long-term trends of stroke mortality attributable to high red meat intake and relative gender differences in China and South Korea. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. The age–period–cohort model was used to estimate the effect of age, time period, and birth cohort. The average and annual percent changes were estimated using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results indicated that the overall attributable age-standardized mortality rates of stroke in China decreased by 1.0% (P < 0.05) for female and 0.1% (P > 0.05) for male individuals, compared with a decrease of 4.9% for female and 3.7% for male individuals in South Korea (both P < 0.05). Age–period–cohort analysis revealed that the attributable stroke mortality decreased along with the time period, and increased along with age. Significant gender differences were observed, male individuals in both countries were at higher risk than their female counterparts, especially in China. Joinpoint analysis suggested that the attributable stroke mortality for both genders in South Korea and female individuals in China showed a decreasing trend, while it is stable for male individuals in China. Although prominent reductions were observed during the past decades, the attributable stroke mortality risk in China and South Korea is still high. Our findings indicate that controlling the intake of red meat may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce stroke mortality risk and the corresponding disease burden, especially for Chinese male individuals.