Construction and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Non-Smokers in China

Lung cancer screening in never smokers

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening has been established in smokers, but its role in never smokers remains unclear. The differences in lung cancer biology between smokers and nonsmokers highlight the importance of a discriminated approach. This overview focuses on the emerging data and implementation challenges for LDCT screening in nonsmokers.

RECENT FINDINGS

The first LDCT screening study in nonsmokers enriched with risk factors demonstrated a lung cancer detection rate double that of the phase 3 trials in smokers. The relative risk of lung cancer detected by LDCT has also been found to be similar amongst female never smokers and male ever smokers in Asia. Majority of lung cancers detected through LDCT screening are stage 0/1, leading to concerns of overdiagnosis. Risk prediction models to enhance individual selection and nodule management could be useful to enhance the utility of LDCT screening in never smokers.

SUMMARY

With appropriate risk stratification, LDCT screening in never smokers may attain similar efficacy as compared to smokers. A global effort is needed to generate evidence surrounding optimal screening strategies, as well as health and economic benefits to determine the suitability of widespread implementation.

Lung cancer risk score for ever and never smokers in China

BACKGROUND

Most lung cancer risk prediction models were developed in European and North-American cohorts of smokers aged ≥ 55 years, while less is known about risk profiles in Asia, especially for never smokers or individuals aged < 50 years. Hence, we aimed to develop and validate a lung cancer risk estimate tool for ever and never smokers across a wide age range.

METHODS

Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank cohort, we first systematically selected the predictors and explored the nonlinear association of predictors with lung cancer risk using restricted cubic splines. Then, we separately developed risk prediction models to construct a lung cancer risk score (LCRS) in 159,715 ever smokers and 336,526 never smokers. The LCRS was further validated in an independent cohort over a median follow-up of 13.6 years, consisting of 14,153 never smokers and 5,890 ever smokers.

RESULTS

A total of 13 and 9 routinely available predictors were identified for ever and never smokers, respectively. Of these predictors, cigarettes per day and quit years showed nonlinear associations with lung cancer risk (Pnon-linear < 0.001). The curve of lung cancer incidence increased rapidly above 20 cigarettes per day and then was relatively flat until approximately 30 cigarettes per day. We also observed that lung cancer risk declined sharply within the first 5 years of quitting, and then continued to decrease but at a slower rate in the subsequent years. The 6-year area under the receiver operating curve for the ever and never smokers' models were respectively 0.778 and 0.733 in the derivation cohort, and 0.774 and 0.759 in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the 10-year cumulative incidence of lung cancer was 0.39% and 2.57% for ever smokers with low (< 166.2) and intermediate-high LCRS (≥ 166.2), respectively. Never smokers with a high LCRS (≥ 21.2) had a higher 10-year cumulative incidence rate than those with a low LCRS (< 21.2; 1.05% vs. 0.22%). An online risk evaluation tool (LCKEY; http://ccra.njmu.edu.cn/lckey/web) was developed to facilitate the use of LCRS.

CONCLUSIONS

The LCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool designed for ever and never smokers aged 30 to 80 years.

Lung cancer in middle and southern Morocco

Purpose

Determining risk factors associated with a fatal disease such as lung cancer (LC) remains an important key to understanding the factors related to its development and therefore using the correct emergent or accessible treatments. For that, we sought to highlight by describing, and analysing, the risk factors related to LC survival, reflecting the actual situation in Morocco.

Patients and methods

We included 987 LC patients diagnosed from 2015 to 2021 at the Medical Oncology Department at the Mohammed VI University Hospital of Marrakech. An overview of the LC situation was described, and analysed, to determine the risk factors related to survival. The independent prognostic factors were determined using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Analysis. To create a distinction between different risks group in the survival curve, stratification was done, respectively, within sex, age, histology type, treatments and radiation therapy.

Results

We finally included 862 patients with 15 parameters among the 27 extracted, all meeting the inclusion criteria. 89.1% of the patients were male (n = 768) and 10.9% were female (n = 94), of whom 83.5% had a history of tobacco smoking (n = 720). The median survival of both sexes was 716 (5-2,167) days. The average age at diagnosis was 60 years. Five hundred and thirty-four patients presented with advanced stage. Patients above 66 years were the more diagnosed category with adenocarcinoma at T4N2M1c pathological category, and endocrinal comorbidity, in addition to pleurisy syndrome. Moreover, family history was found to be a bad prognostic factor. Interestingly, smoking status was not a bad contributor to survival. Age at diagnosis, histology subtype, performance status, haemoglobin, numbers of cures of the first-line chemotherapy, radiotherapy, anaemia and treatments were identified as risk factors related to survival.

Conclusion

We established a descriptive and analytical overview of the current LC epidemiology situation in the oncology division of Mohammed VI University Hospital in a non-industrialised state taking into account smoking status.

One-off low-dose CT screening of positive nodules in lung cancer: A prospective community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

To improve the early stage diagnosis and reduce the lung cancer (LC) mortality for positive nodule (PN) population, data on effectiveness of PN detection using one-off low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) screening are needed to improve the PN management protocol. We evaluate the effectiveness of PN detection and developed a nomogram to predict LC risk for PNs.

METHODS

A prospective, community-based cohort study was conducted. We recruited 292,531 eligible candidates during 2012-2018. Individuals at high risk of LC based on risk assessment underwent LDCT screening and were divided into PN and non-PN groups. The effectiveness of PN detection was evaluated in LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality. We performed subgroup analysis of characteristic variables for the association between PN and LC risk. A competing risk model was used to develop the nomogram.

RESULTS

Participants (n = 14901) underwent LDCT screening; PNs were detected in 1193 cases (8·0%). After a median follow-up of 6·1 years, 193 were diagnosed with LC (1·3%). Of these, 94 were in the PN group (8·0%). LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality were significantly higher in the PN group (adjusted hazard ratios: 10.60 (7.91-14.20), 7.97 (5.20-12.20), and 1.94 (1.51-2.50), respectively). Additionally, various PN characteristics were associated with an increased probability of developing LC. The C-index value of the nomogram for predicting LC risk of PN individuals was 0·847.

CONCLUSIONS

The protocol of PNs management for improvement could focus on specific characteristic population and high-risk PN individuals by nomogram assessment.

Expanding the Reach and Grasp of Lung Cancer Screening

Low-dose computer tomographic (LDCT) lung cancer screening reduces lung cancer-specific and all-cause mortality among high-risk individuals, but implementation has been challenging. Despite health insurance coverage for lung cancer screening in the United States since 2015, fewer than 10% of eligible persons have participated; striking geographic, racial, and socioeconomic disparities were already evident, especially in the populations at greatest risk of lung cancer and, therefore, most likely to benefit from screening; and adherence to subsequent testing is significantly lower than that reported in clinical trials, potentially reducing the realized benefit. Lung cancer screening is a covered health care benefit in very few countries. Obtaining the full population-level benefit of lung cancer screening will require improved participation of already eligible persons (the grasp of screening) and improved eligibility criteria that more closely match up with the full spectrum of persons at risk (the reach of screening), irrespective of smoking history. We used the socioecological framework of health care to systematically review implementation barriers to lung cancer screening and discuss multilevel solutions. We also discussed guideline-concordant management of incidentally detected lung nodules as a complementary approach to early lung cancer detection that can extend the reach and strengthen the grasp of screening. Furthermore, we discussed ongoing efforts in Asia to explore the possibility of LDCT screening in populations in whom lung cancer risk is relatively independent of smoking. Finally, we summarized innovative technological solutions, including biomarker selection and artificial intelligence strategies, to improve the safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in diverse populations.

The association between outdoor air pollution and lung cancer risk in seven eastern metropolises of China: Trends in 2006-2014 and sex differences

There is a positive association between air pollution and lung cancer burden. This study aims to identify and examine lung cancer risks and mortality burdens associated with air pollutants, including PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂, in seven eastern metropolises of China. The study population comprised a population from seven eastern metropolises of China. The yearly average values (YAV, μg/m³) of the PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂ levels were extracted from China Statistical Yearbook (CSYB) for each selected city from 2006 to 2014. Data collected in the China Cancer Registry Annual Report (CCRAR) provide lung cancer incidence and mortality information. A two-level normal random intercept regression model was adopted to analyze the association between the lung cancer rates and individual air pollutant concentration within a five-year moving window of past exposure. The yearly average values of PM10, SO2 and NO2 significantly decreased from 2006 to 2014. Consistently, the male age-adjusted incidence rate (MAIR) and male age-adjusted mortality rate (MAMR) decreased significantly from 2006 to 2014.Air pollutants have a lag effect on lung cancer incidence and mortality for 2-3 years. NO2 has the significant association with MAIR (RR=1.57, 95% CI: 1.19-2.05, p=0.002), MAMR (RR=1.70, 95% CI: 1.32-2.18, p=0.0002) and female age-adjusted mortality rate (FAMR) (RR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.08-1.49, p=0.003). Our findings suggested that air pollutants may be related to the occurrence and mortality of lung cancer. NO2 was significantly associated with the risk of lung cancer, followed by SO2. Air pollutants have the strongest lag effect on the incidence and mortality of lung cancer within 2-3 years.

Effectiveness of Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation Combined with Enteral Nutrition in the Treatment of Patients with Combined Respiratory Failure after Lung Cancer Surgery and Its Effect on Blood Gas Indexes

Purpose

To investigate the effect of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) combined with enteral nutrition support in the treatment of patients with combined respiratory failure after lung cancer surgery and its effect on blood gas indexes.

Methods

A total of 82 patients with combined respiratory failure after lung cancer surgery who were treated in our hospital from March 2016∼September 2021 were selected as the research subjects, and according to the random number table method, they were equally divided into the parenteral nutrition group (n = 41) with NIPPV + parenteral nutrition support treatment and the enteral nutrition group (n = 41) with NIPPV + enteral nutrition support treatment. The curative effects of two groups after treatment were compared, and the pulmonary function indexes (maximum expiratory pressure (PEmax), maximum midexpiratory flow rate (MMF), and maximum ventilation volume (MVV)), blood gas indexes (blood oxygen partial pressure (PaO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2)), oxygen metabolism indicators [mixed venous oxygen tension (PvO2) and central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2)], nutritional status indicators (hemoglobin (HGB), serum albumin (ALB), and total protein (TP)), and nutritional score before and after treatment in two groups were detected, and the 6-month follow-up of the two groups was recorded.

Results

After treatment, the total effective rate of the enteral nutrition group 95.12% (39/41) was higher than that of the parenteral nutrition group 80.49% (33/41) (P < 0.05). At 3, 12, 24, and 48 hours after the operation, the levels of PEmax, MMF, and MVV in two groups were higher than those before treatment, and the enteral nutrition group was higher than the parenteral nutrition group at the same time point (P < 0.05). At 3, 12, 24, and 48 hours after the operation, the PaO2 levels in two groups were higher than those before treatment, and the PaCO2 levels were lower than those before treatment. The PaO2 levels in the enteral nutrition group were higher than those in the parenteral nutrition group at the same time point, and the PaCO2 levels were lower than those in the parenteral nutrition group at the same time point (P < 0.05). At 3, 12, 24, and 48 hours after the operation, the levels of PvO2 and ScvO2 in two groups were higher than those before treatment, and the enteral nutrition group was higher than the parenteral nutrition group at the same time point (P < 0.05). After treatment, the levels of HGB, ALB, and TP in two groups were higher than those before treatment, and the enteral nutrition group was higher than the parenteral nutrition group (P < 0.05). After treatment, the nutritional scores of the two groups were higher than those before treatment, and the enteral nutrition group was higher than the parenteral nutrition group (P < 0.05). At 6-month postoperative follow-up, the incidence of death in the enteral nutrition group 2.44% (1/41) was lower than that of the parenteral nutrition group 17.07% (7/41) (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

The efficacy of NIPPV combined with enteral nutrition support in treating patients with combined respiratory failure after lung cancer surgery is remarkable. It can improve patients' pulmonary function and blood gas index, correct patients' hypoxia status and the patients' nutritional level was significantly improved, which helped to reduce the mortality rate and improve the prognosis.

Advances in lung cancer screening and early detection

Lung cancer is associated with a heavy cancer-related burden in terms of patients' physical and mental health worldwide. Two randomized controlled trials, the US-National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek (NELSON), indicated that low-dose CT (LDCT) screening results in a statistically significant decrease in mortality in patients with lung cancer, LDCT has become the standard approach for lung cancer screening. However, many issues in lung cancer screening remain unresolved, such as the screening criteria, high false-positive rate, and radiation exposure. This review first summarizes recent studies on lung cancer screening from the US, Europe, and Asia, and discusses risk-based selection for screening and the related issues. Second, an overview of novel techniques for the differential diagnosis of pulmonary nodules, including artificial intelligence and molecular biomarker-based screening, is presented. Third, current explorations of strategies for suspected malignancy are summarized. Overall, this review aims to help clinicians understand recent progress in lung cancer screening and alleviate the burden of lung cancer.

Screening Intention Prediction of Colorectal Cancer among Urban Chinese Based on the Protection Motivation Theory

Colorectal cancer poses a serious threat worldwide. Although early screening has been proved to be the most effective way to prevent and control colorectal cancer, the current situation of colorectal cancer screening remains not optimistic. The aim of this article is to apply the protection motivation theory (PMT) to examine the influencing factors on screening intention of colorectal cancer (CRC). This cross-sectional survey was launched in five communities in Wuhan, China. All the eligible urban Chinese were recruited and interviewed using paper-and-pencil questionnaires. The intention of colorectal cancer screening (CRCS) was measured using six PMT subconstructs, including perceived risk, perceived severity, fear arousal, response efficacy, response cost, and self-efficacy. Data on sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CRC were also collected. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method was used for data analysis. Among all the 569 respondents, 83.66% expressed willingness to participate in CRCS. Data of the research fit the proposed SEM model well (Chi-square/df = 2.04, GFI = 0.93, AGFI = 0.91, CFI = 0.91, IFI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.04). Two subconstructs of PMT (response efficacy and self-efficacy) and CRC knowledge were directly and positively associated with screening intention. Age, social status, medical history, physical activity, and CRC knowledge were indirectly related to the screening intention through at least one of the two PMT subconstructs (response efficacy and self-efficacy). The findings of this study suggest the significance of enhancing response efficacy and self-efficacy in motivating urban Chinese adults to participate in CRC screening. Knowledge of CRC is significantly associated with screening intention. This study can provide useful information for the formulation and improvement of colorectal cancer screening strategies and plans.