Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Elevated Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Patients With Diabetes Using Machine Learning

A cost-effective, machine learning-driven approach for screening arterial functional aging in a large-scale Chinese population

Introduction

An easily accessible and cost-free machine learning model based on prior probabilities of vascular aging enables an application to pinpoint high-risk populations before physical checks and optimize healthcare investment.

Methods

A dataset containing questionnaire responses and physical measurement parameters from 77,134 adults was extracted from the electronic records of the Health Management Center at the Third Xiangya Hospital. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and recursive feature elimination-Lightweight Gradient Elevator were employed to select features from a pool of potential covariates. The participants were randomly divided into training (70%) and test cohorts (30%). Four machine learning algorithms were applied to build the screening models for elevated arterial stiffness (EAS), and the performance of models was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

Results

Fourteen easily accessible features were selected to construct the model, including "systolic blood pressure" (SBP), "age," "waist circumference," "history of hypertension," "sex," "exercise," "awareness of normal blood pressure," "eat fruit," "work intensity," "drink milk," "eat bean products," "smoking," "alcohol consumption," and "Irritableness." The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed the other three models, achieving AUC values of 0.8722 and 0.8710 in the training and test sets, respectively. The most important five features are SBP, age, waist, history of hypertension, and sex.

Conclusion

The XGBoost model ideally assesses the prior probability of the current EAS in the general population. The integration of the model into primary care facilities has the potential to lower medical expenses and enhance the management of arterial aging.

A systematic comparison of machine learning algorithms to develop and validate prediction model to predict heart failure risk in middle-aged and elderly patients with periodontitis (NHANES 2009 to 2014)

Periodontitis is increasingly associated with heart failure, and the goal of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model based on machine learning algorithms for the risk of heart failure in middle-aged and elderly participants with periodontitis. We analyzed data from a total of 2876 participants with a history of periodontitis from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009 to 2014, with a training set of 1980 subjects with periodontitis from the NHANES 2009 to 2012 and an external validation set of 896 subjects from the NHANES 2013 to 2014. The independent risk factors for heart failure were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and multilayer perceptron were used on the training set to construct the models. The performance of the machine learning models was evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation on the training set and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis in the validation set. Based on the results of univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression, it was found that age, race, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus status were independent predictors of the risk of heart failure in participants with periodontitis. Six machine learning models, including logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and multilayer perceptron, were built on the training set, respectively. The area under the ROC for the 6 models was obtained using 10-fold cross-validation with values of 0 848, 0.936, 0.859, 0.889, 0.927, and 0.666, respectively. The areas under the ROC on the external validation set were 0.854, 0.949, 0.647, 0.933, 0.855, and 0.74, respectively. K-nearest neighbor model got the best prediction performance across all models. Out of 6 machine learning models, the K-nearest neighbor algorithm model performed the best. The prediction model offers early, individualized diagnosis and treatment plans and assists in identifying the risk of heart failure occurrence in middle-aged and elderly patients with periodontitis.

Fully automatic carotid arterial stiffness assessment from ultrasound videos based on machine learning

Arterial stiffness (AS) refers to the loss of arterial compliance and alterations in vessel wall properties. The study of local carotid stiffness (CS) is particularly important since carotid artery stiffening raises the risk of stroke, cognitive impairment, and dementia. So, stiffness measurement as a screening tool approach is crucial because it can reduce mortality and facilitate therapy planning. This study aims to evaluate the stiffness of the CCA using machine learning (ML) through the features of diameter change (ΔD) and stiffness parameters. This study was conducted in seven stages: data collection, preprocessing, CCA segmentation, CCA lumen diameter (DCCA) computing during cardiac cycles, denoising signals of DCCA, computational of AS parameters, and stiffness assessment using ML. The 51 videos (with 25 s) of CCA B-mode ultrasound (US) were used and analyzed. Each US video yielded approximately 750 sequential frames spanning about 24 cardiac cycles. Firstly, US preset settings with time gain compensation with a U-pattern were employed to enhance CCA segmentations. The study showed that auto region-growing, employed three times, is appropriate for segmenting walls with a short running time (4.56 s/frame). The diameter computed for frames constructs a signal (diameter signal) with noisy parts in the shape of peak variance and an un-smooth side. Among the 12 employed smoothing methods, spline fitting with a mean peak difference per cycle (MPDCY) of 0.58 pixels was the most effective for the diameter signal. The authors propose the MPDCY as a new selection criterion for smoothing methods with highly preserved peaks. The ΔD (D_sys-D_dia) determined in this study was validated by statistical analysis as a viable replacement for manual ΔD measurement. Statistical analysis was carried out by Mann-Whitney t-test with a p-value of 0.81, regression line R² = 0.907, and there was no difference in means between the two groups for box plots. The stiffness parameters of the carotid arteries were calculated based on auto-ΔD and pulse pressure. Five ML models, including K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), logistic regression (LR), and random forest (RF), fed by distension (ΔD) and five stiffness parameters, were used to distinguish between the stiffened and un-stiffened CCA. Except for SVM, all models performed excellently in terms of specificity, sensitivity, precision, and area under the curve (AUC). In addition, the scatterplot and statistical analysis of the fed features confirm these remarkable outcomes. The scatter plot demonstrates that a linear hyperline can easily distinguish between the two classes. The statistical analysis shows that the stiffness parameters computed from the database of this work were statistically (p < 0.05) distributed into the non-stiffness and stiffness groups. The presented models are validated by applying them to additional datasets. Applying models to other datasets reveals a model performance of 100%. The proposed ML models could be applied in clinical practice to detect CS early, which is essential for preventing stroke.

The positive correlation between brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity and aortic diameter in Chinese patients with diabetes

Aortic dilation is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Increased brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a hallmark of vascular aging and arterial stiffness, as well as an important risk factor for vascular disease. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze the correlation between baPWV and aortic diameter (AoD) of inpatients with diabetes. A total of 1294 diabetic patients with the detailed medical records were investigated. Arterial stiffness was assessed using baPWV and AoD using echocardiography. The results showed that baPWV and AoD increase with age (p <0.05). Based on multiple linear regression analysis, age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, left atrial diameter, right ventricle diameter, pulmonary artery diameter, peak velocity of early transmitral blood flow/peak velocity of late transmitral blood flow, and baPWV independently correlated with AoD in patients with diabetes. Additionally, an increased risk of aortic dilation occurred in the highest baPWV quartile compared with the lowest quartile (p <0.001). In conclusion, baPWV is independently and positively associated with AoD. Hence, prospective cohorts or randomized clinical trials will be the next step to further determine whether interventions designed to improve arterial stiffness in patients with diabetes will reduce the risk of aortic dilation.