Validity of Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability in the Japanese Forensic Probation Service

Reducing Risk for Future Violence From Forensic Psychiatric Patients by Using Critical Factors of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability as a Caring Tool

BACKGROUND

The dual task for forensic mental health care is community protection and treatment of mental disorders. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has become an established tool for risk assessment and care planning in forensic psychiatry. When using the START, items judged as critical factors are chosen to be addressed in the care plan. However, it is not known which critical factors that are of special interest need to be addressed to reduce the risk for future violence.

AIMS

The main aim of this study was to explore how staff's choice of critical factors in the care planning influences risk for future violence.

METHODS

The study is based on 787 START assessments from 285 convicted and involuntary admitted inpatients at the Forensic Psychiatric Clinic of Stockholm County, Sweden. The influence on risk for future violence by selecting a certain item as a critical factor in the care plan was measured by comparing patients' sum of vulnerabilities at the time this certain critical factor was selected with this sum at the next assessment.

RESULTS

The results show that a patient's overall risk for future violence decreases significantly when the items "insight," "attitudes," "mental state," "coping," and "drug use" were addressed as critical factors in the care planning. The importance of specified critical factors differs between diagnostic groups and time after admission.

CONCLUSIONS

When staff select certain specified items as critical factors in the care planning, the patients' risk of relapse into acts of violence was significantly reduced.

Identification of the role of autophagy-related TNFSF10/ hsa-let-7a-5p axis in vitiligo development and potential herbs exploring based on a bioinformatics analysis

Background

Vitiligo is a common clinical disorder caused by the destruction of epidermal melanocytes, which is often associated with autoimmune mechanisms. Autophagy plays a crucial role in maintaining cellular homeostasis and exhibits close associations with various autoimmune disorders. While dysautophagy of melanocytes is associated with vitiligo pathogenesis, there is a lack of studies on autophagy-related genes (ARGs) in blood samples from individuals with vitiligo.

Methods

Blood samples from individuals with vitiligo and healthy controls were compared to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs), which were subsequently subjected to further analysis. Then, miRNAs correlated with core genes were predicted by five distinct online tools, and those miRNAs that appeared in three or more tools at the same time were chosen for further enrichment analysis. Furthermore, in vitro experiments of targeting core genes were conducted.

Results

The results showed that there were a total of 30 ARGs among DEGs, with 13 up-regulated genes and 17 down-regulated genes. Based on the functional enrichment analysis of DEGs and projected miRNAs, we hypothesized that autophagy and apoptosis may synergistically contribute to the progression of vitiligo, with the TNFSF10/hsa-let-7a-5p axis potentially playing an important role that should not be ignored. In addition, epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG) was found to be the common component in BAI GUO, CHA YE, and MEI ZHOU JIN LV MEI, which were discovered to be potential in vitiligo treatment by inducing cell autophagy and apoptosis targeting TNFSF10.

Conclusion

It was the first time that TNFSF/hsa-let-7a-5p was discovered to be involved in the development of vitiligo through autophagy and apoptosis. Meanwhile, we observed that BAI GUO, CHA YE, and MEI ZHOU JIN LV MEI were promising to treat vitiligo by regulating autophagy and apoptosis via TNFSF10. These findings could lead to new directions for investigating the pathogenesis and therapy of vitiligo.

Violence risk assessment instruments in forensic psychiatric populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although structured tools have been widely used to predict violence risk in specialist mental health settings, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance. We aimed to systematically review the predictive performance of tools used to assess violence risk in forensic mental health, where they are routinely administered.

METHODS

In our systematic review and meta-analysis, we followed PRISMA guidelines and searched four databases (PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and Global Health) from database inception to Nov 1, 2022, to identify studies examining the predictive performance of risk assessment tools in people discharged from forensic (secure) mental health hospitals. Systematic and narrative reviews were excluded from the review. Performance measures and descriptive statistics were extracted from published reports. A quality assessment was performed for each study using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Meta-analysis was conducted on the performance of instruments that were independently externally validated with a sample size greater than 100. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022304716.

FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review of 50 eligible publications, assessing the predictive performance of 36 tools, providing data for 10 460 participants (88% men, 12% women; median age [from 47 studies] was 35 years, IQR 33-38) from 12 different countries. Post-discharge interpersonal violence and crime was most often measured by new criminal offences or recidivism (47 [94%] of 50 studies); only three studies used informant or self-report data on physical aggression or violent behaviour. Overall, the predictive performance of risk assessment tools was mixed. Most studies reported one discrimination metric, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); other key performance measures such as calibration, sensitivity, and specificity were not presented. Most studies had a high risk of bias (49 [98%] of 50), partly due to poor analytical approaches. A meta-analysis was conducted for violent recidivism on 29 independent external validations from 19 studies with at least 100 patients. Pooled AUCs for predicting violent outcomes ranged from 0·72 (0·65-0·79; I2=0%) for H10, to 0·69 for the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 version 2 (95% CI 0·65-0·72; I2=0%) and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (0·63-0·75; I2=0%), to 0·64 for the Static-99 (0·53-0·73; I2=45%).

INTERPRETATION

Current violence risk assessment tools in forensic mental health have mixed evidence of predictive performance. Forensic mental health services should review their use of current risk assessment tools and consider implementing those with higher-quality evidence in support.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Evaluating the Risk of Suicide and Violence in Severe Mental Illness: A Feasibility Study of Two Risk Assessment Tools (OxMIS and OxMIV) in General Psychiatric Settings

BACKGROUND

Two OxRisk risk assessment tools, the Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide (OxMIS) and the Oxford Mental Illness and Violence (OxMIV), were developed and validated using national linked registries in Sweden, to assess suicide and violence risk in individuals with severe mental illness (schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and bipolar disorders). In this study, we aim to examine the feasibility and acceptability of the tools in three different clinical services.

METHOD

We employed a two-step mixed-methods approach, by combining quantitative analyses of risk scores of 147 individual patients, and thematic analyses of qualitative data. First, 38 clinicians were asked to use OxMIS and OxMIV when conducting their routine risk assessments in patients with severe mental illness. The risk scores for each patient (which provide a probability of the outcome over 12 months) were then compared to the unstructured clinical risk assessment made by the treating clinician. Second, we carried out semi-structured interviews with the clinicians on the acceptability and utility of the tools. Thematic analysis was conducted on the qualitative data to identify common themes, in terms of the utility, accuracy, and acceptability of the tools. The investigations were undertaken in three general adult psychiatric clinics located in the cities of Barcelona and Sevilla (Spain), and Changsha (China).

RESULTS

Median risk probabilities over 12 months for OxMIS were 1.0% in the Spanish patient sample and 1.9% in the Chinese sample. For OxMIV, they were 0.7% (Spanish) and 0.8% (Chinese). In the thematic analysis, clinicians described the tools as easy to use, and thought that the risk score improved risk management. Potential additions to predictors were suggested, including family history and the patient's support network. Concordance rates of risk estimates between the tools and clinicians was high for violence (94.4%; 68/72) and moderate for suicide (50.0%; 36/72).

CONCLUSION

Both OxMIS and OxMIV are feasible and practical in different general adult psychiatric settings. Clinicians interviewed found that both tools provide a useful structured approach to estimate the risk of suicide and violence. Risk scores from OxMIS and OxMIV can also be used to assist clinical decision-making for future management.