On the Progression of COVID-19 in Portugal: A Comparative Analysis of Active Cases Using Non-linear Regression

Anomaly Detection Models for SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Based on Genome k-mers

Since COVID-19 has brought great challenges to global public health governance, developing methods that track the evolution of the virus over the course of an epidemic or pandemic is useful for public health. This paper uses anomaly detection models to analyze SARS-CoV-2 virus genome k-mers to predict possible new critical variants in the collected samples. We used the sample data from Argentina, China and Portugal obtained from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to conduct multiple rounds of evaluation on several anomaly detection models, to verify the feasibility of this virus early warning and surveillance idea and find appropriate anomaly detection models for actual epidemic surveillance. Through multiple rounds of model testing, we found that the LUNAR (learnable unified neighborhood-based anomaly ranking) and LUNAR+LUNAR stacking model performed well in new critical variants detection. The results of simulated dynamic detection validate the feasibility of this approach, which can help efficiently monitor samples in local areas.

Estimation Model for Healthcare Costs and Intensive Care Units Access for Covid-19 Patients and Evaluation of the Effects of Remdesivir in the Portuguese Context: Hypothetical Study

Background and Objectives

In March 2020, the World Health Organization announced a state of emergency due to the appearance of a pandemic caused by the Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a severe acute respiratory syndrome, known as Covid-19. Most governments chose to implement precautionary measures, e.g., physical distancing and use of protective devices, which can in part limit the transmission of the virus. However, the healthcare system experienced numerous structural problems in managing the Covid-19 patients given the limited human and technical resources in critical areas, such as the intensive care units (ICUs). Different therapeutic solutions should therefore be assessed, which can potentially minimize the negative impact of the disease on patients, favoring their recovery and optimizing healthcare resources. The objective of this study is to simulate the impact of remdesivir treatment on the pandemic course in the long term.

Methods

A forecasting model is designed to estimate how remdesivir would impact the ICU capacity and the healthcare costs from the hospital perspective when managing COVID-19 patients. This model is applied in the Portuguese context with a 20-week projection starting on May 1st and concluding on September 18th, 2021. The data inputs were carefully collected by consulting different sources, such as published global literature, official governmental reports, and available infectious diseases databases, i.e., Our World in Data, Portuguese Ministry of Health, and experts’ opinions.

Results

The model showed that the introduction of remdesivir-based treatment in patients with Covid-19 pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen therapy generates a significant reduction in both the number of ICU admissions and deaths, which would produce more than €23 million in cost savings and avoid more than 261 ICUs admissions and 166 deaths.

Conclusion

It is demonstrated that alternative treatments such as remdesivir can reduce both the health burden for healthcare facilities, optimize their management, and improve patients’ clinical conditions. However, the model is centered on Rt values, which cannot be generalized to the entire country; hence, the results of this research should be considered as a “hypothetical study”.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40261-022-01128-8.

Assessment and Impact of the Risk of Exposure of Portuguese Biomedical Scientists in the Context of COVID-19

Currently, the main public health concern worldwide is the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, which was recently discovered and described. Due to its high pathogenicity and infectiousness, it is necessary to determine the risk healthcare professionals face every day while dealing with infected patients and contaminated biological samples. The purpose of this study was to assess Portuguese Biomedical Scientists’ risk of COVID-19 exposure and related stress appraisals. One hundred and forty participants completed online versions of the WHO’s Risk Assessment and Management of Exposure Survey and the Stress Appraisal Measure. Participants worked mainly in outpatient settings (45%), and in emergency services (28%). Twenty three percent of participants were exposed to COVID-19 through community exposure, and 39% through occupational exposure. Although 95% reported using personal protective equipment (PPE), 83.6% were at high risk of infection. However, the use of some types of PPE was related to the risk of exposure. Participants reported moderate perceptions of stress and threat, but also moderate perceptions of control over the situation. These results may contribute to a more efficient risk management of these professionals and prevent disease transmission in hospitals and communities.

Effect of preventive measures in the containment of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: a comparative study

From the time when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, strict regulations are being implemented by policy makers to contain the spread of the virus. The measures taken in different countries spanned from complete isolation and lockdown to different degrees of restrictions to people's movement, contact between people, hygiene and sanitation. Accordingly, the success in containing the virus also differed. Italy was one among the worst-affected countries in the world despite the lockdown measures adopted. A combination of lockdown and Level-3 State of Emergency measures were adopted in Portugal and South Africa, which helped to delay and flatten the epidemic curve. The timely application of Level-3 State of Emergency in Mozambique resulted in recording low infection rates. Above all the tripod, orderly movement of people, social distance and hygiene and sanitation is the keystone measure to prevent spread of the virus. However, for successful outcome, the measures have to be tailored to the local context.