Potential Impact of the Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods Tax on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children: A Modeling Study

Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

Background

The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic.

Methods

Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico.

Findings

We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20-64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively.

Interpretation

Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans.

Funding

This study received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, awarded to Juan A. Rivera from the National Institute of Public Health; Community Jameel, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Kenneth C Griffin, and the World Health Organization.

Association of early menarche with elevated BMI, lower body height and relative leg length among 14- to 16-year-old post-menarcheal girls from a Maya community in Yucatan, Mexico

Human body segments have different timing and tempo of growth. Early menarche (EM) as an indicator of early reproductive maturity results in a shortened height and leg length. Relatively larger trunk may increase risk for more body fat deposit and higher body mass index (BMI) due to the allometry of total body fat with body proportions. The objective of the study was to assess the association of EM with BMI, absolute body size [height, sitting height (SH), subischial leg length (SLL)] and relative body dimensions [sitting height to subischial leg length ratio (SHSLLR), relative subischial leg length (RSLL)] among 14- to 16-year-old post-menarcheal girls from a rural Maya community in Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Mexico. In a cross-sectional study, post-menarcheal girls (n=51) aged 14 to 16 years had EM (n=22) (<12 years of age) and not early menarche (NEM, n=29). Anthropometric measurements of height, weight, and SH were recorded. Derived variables were BMI, height and BMI-for-age z-scores, SLL, SHSLLR, and RSLL. Mean value of age at menarche (AM) was 13 years (EM 11 years, NEM 14 years). Mean values of height (EM 159 cm, NEM 164 cm), BMI (EM 20 kg/m2, NEM 19 kg/m2), sitting height (EM 81 cm, NEM 78 cm), SLL (EM 79 cm, NEM 85 cm), SHSLLR (EM 102.93%, NEM 92.03%), and RSLL (EM 49%, NEM 52%) were different (p<0.05) in the two groups. BMI showed significant negative correlation with AM (Pearson’s r=-0.29, p<0.04). Linear regression models adjusted for age showed that EM had different interrelationships (p<0.05) with body dimensions: positive with BMI, SH, SHSLLR, and negative with height, SLL, and RSLL. Earlier AM was associated with higher BMI, SH, SHSLLR and lower SLL, RSLL, explaining lower body height and leg length among the participant EM girls. In the light of life history theory, EM results in a growth trade-off, short stature and larger trunk relative to leg length that might enhance risk for body fat gain.

Associations of a National Tax on Non-Essential High Calorie Foods with Changes in Consumer Prices

Several governments are considering taxes on non-essential energy-dense, high calorie foods (NEDF) to increase their prices and thereby encourage better diet and health. Alongside a tax on sugary drinks in January 2014, Mexico implemented such a tax: an 8 percent ad-valorem tax on NEDF, defined as those with energy density equal or larger than 275kcal/100g. We study the changes in the prices of taxed and tax-exempt foods following this tax both on average and by tax-eligible foods across store types and cities, using monthly price data between 2012 and 2016. We compare within-product price changes before and after the tax adjusting for product fixed effects, seasonality, and trends, and find that prices of taxed foods increased by 4.8 % on average, but differentially across foods. Prices of candies, cookies and packaged pastries increased by eight or more percent post-tax (vs pre-tax); prices of cakes, and savory snacks increased by less. Prices of fresh pastry and ready-to-eat cereal increased, but only in 2014. Prices of chocolate and pizza did not increase after the tax. For tax-exempt foods, no significant price changes were observed. Variability in price changes for taxed foods were observed by cities as well as by stores: increases were larger in supermarkets compared to smaller grocery stores on average and for most foods. Differences in how prices changed across foods, cities and stores have implications for who is likely to be affected by the tax and how tax effects on diet may vary due to the differential tax pass-through in addition to a heterogenous demand response to changed prices.