Estimating the future global dose demand for measles-rubella microarray patches

Estimates of Potential Demand for Measles and Rubella Microarray Patches

Global measles vaccine coverage has stagnated at approximately 85% for over a decade. By simplifying vaccine logistics and administration, the measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) may improve coverage. Clinical trials have demonstrated similar safety and immunogenicity in 9-month-old infants for MR-MAPs compared with syringe-and-needle vaccination. To aid commercialization, we present estimates of MR-MAP demand. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate demand for MR-MAPs using data from 180 WHO countries during 2000-2016. Five immunization scenarios were analyzed: (1a) Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)-eligible countries and (1b) WHO countries where preventive SIAs are routinely conducted; (2) SIAs and outbreak response immunization in all WHO countries; (3) routine immunization (RI) and SIAs in six high-burden measles countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); (4) RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries; and (5) hard-to-reach populations. MR-MAP demand varied greatly across scenarios. Forecasts for 2025-2034 estimate from 137 million doses in hard-to-reach populations (scenario 5) to 2.587 billion doses for RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries (scenario 4). When policymakers and manufacturers assess MR-MAP demand, they may consider multiple scenarios to allow for a complete consideration of potential markets and public health needs.

Exploring Important Attributes, the Potential Use Cases and Feasibility of Introduction of Measles and Rubella Microarray Patches (MR-MAPs): Insights from Nine Countries

Background: Microarray patches (MAPs) are innovative, needle-free vaccine delivery systems, suitable for administration by minimally trained health care workers or trained community health workers. Their introduction may transform immunization programmes, particularly for vaccines where high coverage is required for population immunity, such as measles, and where vaccine delivery is challenging, such as in low- and middle-income countries. Recognizing the need to understand how best to tailor these products to reflect country priorities, workshops on measles and rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) were conducted in multiple regions to collect insights on needs and preferences from relevant stakeholders at country level. Methods: The CAPACITI Innovation Framework was used to structure stakeholder discussions in nine countries in the period from August 2022 to July 2023. The discussions, building on the findings from a situation analysis on the barriers related to measles and rubella vaccine delivery, followed the four-step process outlined in the framework. Results: Key barriers hindering delivery of measles and rubella vaccines across the countries were in the categories of human resource management, service delivery, and demand generation. MR-MAP attributes that stakeholders believed would reduce or eliminate these barriers included ease of preparation and administration, improved thermostability, fewer (ancillary) components, and single-dose presentation. Some attributes such as the site of administration, wear time, and storage volume could exacerbate certain barriers. Based on an understanding of key barriers, product attributes, and underserved populations, stakeholders identified several potential use cases for MR-MAPs: (i) delivery at a fixed health post, (ii) delivery through outreach sessions conducted by health workers, and (iii) administration by community health workers. To enable robust national decision making about the introduction of MR-MAPs and successful implementation, global and national evidence on feasibility and acceptability of MR-MAPs should be generated. To prepare for the potential introduction of MR-MAPs, immunization programmes should evaluate their immunization policies based on their preferred use cases and modify them if needed, for example, to enable community health workers to administer vaccines, along with making programmatic adjustments to waste management and training. Conclusions: MR-MAPs have the potential to reduce key barriers to MR delivery. Yet, their future impact depends on the ability of global stakeholders to steer the development of MR-MAPs to be responsive to country needs and preferences. The generation of evidence to enable robust decision making, timely modification of vaccine policies, and addressing programmatic considerations will be key to successful uptake.

An Application of an Initial Full Value of Vaccine Assessment Methodology to Measles-Rubella MAPs for Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030-2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16-81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

Possible Paths to Measles Eradication: Conceptual Frameworks, Strategies, and Tactics

Measles elimination refers to the interruption of measles virus transmission in a defined geographic area (e.g., country or region) for 12 months or more, and measles eradication refers to the global interruption of measles virus transmission. Measles eradication was first discussed and debated in the late 1960's shortly after the licensure of measles vaccines. Most experts agree that measles meets criteria for disease eradication, but progress toward national and regional measles elimination has slowed. Several paths to measles eradication can be described, including an incremental path through country-wide and regional measles elimination and phased paths through endgame scenarios and strategies. Infectious disease dynamic modeling can help inform measles elimination and eradication strategies, and all paths would be greatly facilitated by innovative technologies such as microarray patches to improve vaccine access and demand, point-of-contact diagnostic tests to facilitate outbreak responses, and point-of-contact IgG tests to identify susceptible populations. A pragmatic approach to measles eradication would identify and realize the necessary preconditions and clearly articulate various endgame scenarios and strategies to achieve measles eradication with an intensified and coordinated global effort in a specified timeframe, i.e., to "go big and go fast". To encourage and promote deliberation among a broad array of stakeholders, we provide a brief historical background and key considerations for setting a measles eradication goal.

A review of potential use cases for measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid-conjugate vaccines presented on microarray patches

As an innovative vaccine delivery technology, vaccine microarray patches could have a meaningful impact on routine immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, and vaccine deployment during epidemics and pandemics. This review of the potential use cases for a subset of vaccine microarray patches in various stages of clinical development, including measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid conjugate, highlights the breadth of their applicability to support immunization service delivery and their potential scope of utilization within national immunization programs. Definition and assessment of the use cases for this novel vaccine presentation provide important insights for vaccine developers and policymakers into the strengths of the public health and commercial value propositions, and the preparatory requirements for public health systems for the future rollout of vaccine microarray patches. An in-depth understanding of use cases for vaccine microarray patches serves as a foundational input to overcoming the remaining technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. Additional efforts will help to realize the potential of vaccine microarray patches as part of the global effort to improve the coverage and equity of national immunization programs.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030-2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs.

RESULTS

MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%-37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%-81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Exploring potential applications of measles and rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs): use case identification

Introduction

Innovative vaccine products will be critical in helping to address the existing implementation barriers that have prevented the achievement of the measles and rubella (MR) vaccine coverage targets. Overcoming those barriers will be necessary to achieve the "Immunization Agenda 2030" goals. Microarray patches (MAPs), an innovative needle-free delivery device currently in clinical development, can be a potential game changer in this respect and contribute to the equitable delivery of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries and pandemic preparedness and response. Developing in-depth knowledge of the most desired and impactful uses of MRMAPs can prove critical to identifying the critical attributes of the target product profile, informing policy and adoption decisions, and helping to evaluate the potential public health and economic value of this technology. The first step in this process is the definition of the potential use cases for MR-MAPs, i.e., where and how this product is most likely to be used within the immunization programme.

Methods

By applying a design-based user-centric approach, we implemented a three-step process, including a desk review, a survey, and interviews, to define the most relevant use cases for MR MAPS.

Results

Six use cases have been identified as relevant across all different countries and immunization programme designs and validated by experts.

Discussion

The identified use cases have already informed the demand estimate for MR-MAPs and provided the foundation for developing an initial full vaccine value assessment. We believe that, in the future, they will be highly valuable in ensuring that the roll-out of this promising innovation is designed in a way that maximizes the impact, particularly in populations and countries that are most in need.