A Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival of Osteosarcoma and Ewing's Sarcoma in Children: A SEER Database Analysis

Incidence trends, overall survival, and metastasis prediction using multiple machine learning and deep learning techniques in pediatric and adolescent population with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma: nomogram and webpage

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence and overall survival (OS) of osteosarcoma (OSC) and Ewing's sarcoma (EWS) in a pediatric and adolescent population, employing machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models to predict the likelihood of metastasis.

METHODS

Involving 2465 OSC and 1373 EWS patients aged 0-19 years, from 2004 to 2020. ML techniques-Lasso, Ridge Regression, Elastic Net, and Random Forest-were used alongside a deep learning model based on TensorFlow and Keras, to construct predictive models for metastasis. These models were optimized using grid search with cross-validation and evaluated on their performance metrics, including AUC, sensitivity, and accuracy. The variables' importance in metastasis prediction was determined using SHAP values. Statistical analysis was performed using R software, and an online nomogram was developed for clinical use.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted incidence of OSC and EWS from 2004 to 2020 showed a significant uptrend. The deep learning model, iterated 50 times, outperformed the Random Forest model in both loss and accuracy stabilization. The nomogram created demonstrated accurate survival predictions, as evidenced by its calibration curves and the distinction between high and low-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

The increasing trend in age-adjusted incidence of OSC and EWS highlights the need for continued research and improved therapeutic strategies in this domain. The study employed ML and DL models to predict distant metastasis in pediatric and adolescent patients with OSC and EWS, providing a valuable tool for prognosis. The online nomogram developed as a part of this research enhances the models' clinical utility, offering an accessible means for clinicians to predict survival outcomes effectively.

Prognostic factors and overall survival in pelvic Ewing's sarcoma and chordoma: A comparative SEER database analysis

Background

This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) for pelvic Ewing's sarcoma (EWS) and chordoma, identify prognostic factors, and compare outcomes between the two conditions.

Methods

We identified patients diagnosed with pelvic EWS or chordoma from the SEER database (2001-2019). Independent risk factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and these factors were used to construct nomograms predicting 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS. Validation methods included AUC, calibration plots, C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests compared survival differences between low- and high-risk groups.

Results

The study included 1175 patients (EWS: 611, chordoma: 564). Both groups were randomly divided into training (70 %) and validation (30 %) cohorts. OS was significantly higher for chordoma. Multivariate analysis showed year of diagnosis, income, stage, and surgery were significant for EWS survival, while age, time to treatment, stage, and surgery were significant for chordoma survival. Validation showed the nomograms had strong predictive performance and clinical utility.

Conclusions

The nomograms reliably predict overall survival (OS) in pelvic EWS and chordoma, helping to identify high-risk patients early and guide preventive measures. The study also found that survival rates are significantly higher for chordoma, highlighting different prognostic profiles between EWS and chordoma.

Development and validation of a nomogram for breast cancer-related lymphedema

To establish and validate a predictive model for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) among Chinese patients to facilitate individualized risk assessment. We retrospectively analyzed data from breast cancer patients treated at a major single-center breast hospital in China. From 2020 to 2022, we identified risk factors for BCRL through logistic regression and developed and validated a nomogram using R software (version 4.1.2). Model validation was achieved through the application of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA), with further evaluated by internal validation. Among 1485 patients analyzed, 360 developed lymphedema (24.2%). The nomogram incorporated body mass index, operative time, lymph node count, axillary dissection level, surgical site infection, and radiotherapy as predictors. The AUCs for training (N = 1038) and validation (N = 447) cohorts were 0.779 and 0.724, respectively, indicating good discriminative ability. Calibration and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's clinical utility. Our nomogram provides an accurate tool for predicting BCRL risk, with potential to enhance personalized management in breast cancer survivors. Further prospective validation across multiple centers is warranted.

Multi-omic validation of the cuproptosis-sphingolipid metabolism network: modulating the immune landscape in osteosarcoma

Background

The current understanding of the mechanisms by which metal ion metabolism promotes the progression and drug resistance of osteosarcoma remains incomplete. This study aims to elucidate the key roles and mechanisms of genes involved in cuproptosis-related sphingolipid metabolism (cuproptosis-SPGs) in regulating the immune landscape, tumor metastasis, and drug resistance in osteosarcoma cells.

Methods

This study employed multi-omics approaches to assess the impact of cuproptosis-SPGs on the prognosis of osteosarcoma patients. Lasso regression analysis was utilized to construct a prognostic model, while multivariate regression analysis was applied to identify key core genes and generate risk coefficients for these genes, thereby calculating a risk score for each osteosarcoma patient. Patients were then stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on their risk scores. The ESTIMATE and CIBERSORT algorithms were used to analyze the level of immune cell infiltration within these risk groups to construct the immune landscape. Single-cell analysis was conducted to provide a more precise depiction of the expression patterns of cuproptosis-SPGs among immune cell subtypes. Finally, experiments on osteosarcoma cells were performed to validate the role of the cuproptosis-sphingolipid signaling network in regulating cell migration and apoptosis.

Results

In this study, seven cuproptosis-SPGs were identified and used to construct a prognostic model for osteosarcoma patients. In addition to predicting survival, the model also demonstrated reliability in forecasting the response to chemotherapy drugs. The results showed that a high cuproptosis-sphingolipid metabolism score was closely associated with reduced CD8 T cell infiltration and indicated poor prognosis in osteosarcoma patients. Cellular functional assays revealed that cuproptosis-SPGs regulated the LC3B/ERK signaling pathway, thereby triggering cell death and impairing migration capabilities in osteosarcoma cells.

Conclusion

The impact of cuproptosis-related sphingolipid metabolism on the survival and migration of osteosarcoma cells, as well as on CD8 T cell infiltration, highlights the potential of targeting copper ion metabolism as a promising strategy for osteosarcoma patients.

Altered vaginal cervical microbiota diversity contributes to HPV-induced cervical cancer via inflammation regulation

Background

Cancer has surpassed infectious diseases and heart ailments, taking the top spot in the disease hierarchy. Cervical cancer is a significant concern for women due to high incidence and mortality rates, linked to the human papillomavirus (HPV). HPV infection leads to precancerous lesions progressing to cervical cancer. The cervix's external os, near the vagina, hosts various microorganisms. Evidence points to the link between vaginal microbiota and HPV-induced cervical cancer. Cervical cancer onset aligns with an imbalanced Th1/Th2 immune response, but the role of vaginal microbiota in modulating this imbalance is unclear.

Methods

In this study, we collected vaginal samples from 99 HPV-infected patients across varying degrees of lesions, alongside control groups. These samples underwent bacterial DNA sequencing. Additionally, we employed Elisa kits to quantify the protein expression levels of Th1/Th2 cytokines IL2, IL12, IL5, IL13, and TNFa within the centrifuged supernatant of vaginal-cervical secretions from diverse research subjects. Subsequently, correlation analyses were conducted between inflammatory factors and vaginal microbiota.

Results

Our findings highlighted a correlation between decreased Lactobacillus and increased Gardenerella presence with HPV-induced cervical cancer. Functionally, our predictive analysis revealed the predominant enrichment of the ABC transporter within the vaginal microbiota of cervical cancer patients. Notably, these microbiota alterations exhibited correlations with the production of Th1/Th2 cytokines, which are intimately tied to tumor immunity.

Conclusions

This study suggests the potential involvement of vaginal microbiota in the progression of HPV-induced cervical cancer through Th1/Th2 cytokine regulation. This novel insight offers a fresh perspective for early cervical cancer diagnosis and future prevention strategies.

Development and validation of a risk nomogram to estimate risk of hyponatremia after spinal cord injury: A retrospective single-center study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish a nomogram-based assessment for predicting the risk of hyponatremia after spinal cord injury (SCI).

DESIGN

The study is a retrospective single-center study.

PARTICIPANTS

SCI patients hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University.

SETTING

The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective clinical study to collect SCI patients hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from 2016 to 2020. Based on their clinical scores, the SCI patients were grouped as either hyponatremic or non-hyponatremic, SCI patients in 2016-2019 were identified as the training set, and patients in 2020 were identified as the test set. A nomogram was generated, the calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to validate the model.

RESULTS

A total of 895 SCI patients were retrieved. After excluding patients with incomplete data, 883 patients were finally included in this study and used to construct the nomograms. The indicators used in the nomogram included sex, completeness of SCI, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, fever, constipation, white blood cell (WBC), albumin and serum Ca2+. These indices were determined by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. The C-index of the model was 0.81, the area under the curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.82(Cl:0.79-0.85), and the validation set was 0.79(Cl:0.73-0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Nomogram has good predictive ability, sex, completeness of SCI, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, fever, constipation, WBC, albumin and serum Ca2+ were predictors of hyponatremia after SCI.

Anti-PD-1 Therapy in Advanced Pediatric Malignancies in Nationwide Study: Good Outcome in Skin Melanoma and Hodgkin Lymphoma

BACKGROUND/AIM

The role of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs; anti-PD1) in the treatment of childhood cancers is still evolving. The aim of this nationwide retrospective study was to assess the safety and effectiveness of ICIs used in a group of 42 patients, with a median age of 13.6 years, with various types of advanced malignancies treated in pediatric oncology centers in Poland between 2015 and 2023.

RESULTS

The indications for treatment with anti-PD1 were as follows: Hodgkin lymphoma (11); malignant skin melanoma (9); neuroblastoma (8); and other malignancies (14). At the end of follow-up, complete remission (CR) was observed in 37.7% (15/42) of children and disease stabilization in 9.5% (4/42), with a mean survival 3.6 (95% CI = 2.6-4.6) years. The best survival (OS = 1.0) was observed in the group of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma. For malignant melanoma of the skin, neuroblastoma, and other rare malignancies, the estimated 3-year OS values were, respectively, 0.78, 0.33, and 0.25 (p = 0.002). The best progression-free survival value (0.78) was observed in the group with malignant melanoma. Significantly better effects of immunotherapy were confirmed in patients ≥ 14 years of age and good overall performance ECOG status. Severe adverse events were observed in 30.9% (13/42) patients.

Establishment and validation of nomogram models for overall survival and cancer-specific survival in spindle cell sarcoma patients

Spindle cell sarcoma (SCS) is rare in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to establish nomograms to predict the OS and CSS prognosis of patients with SCS based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data of patients with SCS between 2004 and 2020 were extracted from the SEER database and randomly allocated to a training cohort and a validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for independent risk factors for both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Nomograms for OS and CSS were established for patients with SCS based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis. Then, we validated the nomograms by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, Kaplan‒Meier curves and log-rank tests were applied to compare patients with SCS at three different levels and in different treatment groups. A total of 1369 patients with SCS were included and randomly allocated to a training cohort (n = 1008, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 430, 30%). Age, stage, grade, tumour location, surgery, radiation and diagnosis year were found to be independent prognostic factors for OS by Cox regression analysis, while age, stage, grade, tumour location and surgery were found to be independent prognostic factors for CSS. The nomogram models were established based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis for both OS and CSS. The C-indices of the OS model were 0.76 and 0.77 in the training and validation groups, respectively, while they were 0.76 and 0.78 for CSS, respectively. For OS, the 3- and 5-year AUCs were 0.801 and 0.798, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.827 and 0.799, respectively, in the validation cohort; for CSS, they were 0.809 and 0.786, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.831 and 0.801, respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration curves revealed high consistency in both OS and CSS between the observed survival and the predicted survival. In addition, DCA was used to analyse the clinical practicality of the OS and CSS nomogram models and revealed that they had good net benefits. Surgery remains the main treatment method for SCS patients. The two nomograms we established are expected to accurately predict the personalized prognosis of SCS patients and may be useful for clinical decision-making.

A deep learning algorithm with good prediction efficacy for cancer-specific survival in osteosarcoma: A retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

Successful prognosis is crucial for the management and treatment of osteosarcoma (OSC). This study aimed to predict the cancer-specific survival rate in patients with OSC using deep learning algorithms and classical Cox proportional hazard models to provide data to support individualized treatment of patients with OSC.

METHODS

Data on patients diagnosed with OSC from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The study sample was then divided randomly into a training cohort and a validation cohort in the proportion of 7:3. The DeepSurv algorithm and the Cox proportional hazard model were chosen to construct prognostic models for patients with OSC. The prediction efficacy of the model was estimated using the concordance index (C-index), the integrated Brier score (IBS), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (SME).

RESULTS

A total of 3218 patients were randomized into training and validation groups (n = 2252 and 966, respectively). Both DeepSurv and Cox models had better efficacy in predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in OSC patients (C-index >0.74). In the validation of other metrics, DeepSurv did not have superiority over the Cox model in predicting survival in OSC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

After validation, our CSS prediction model for patients with OSC based on the DeepSurv algorithm demonstrated satisfactory prediction efficacy and provided a convenient webpage calculator.

Machine learning for predicting the survival in osteosarcoma patients: Analysis based on American and Hebei Province cohort

Osteosarcoma, a rare malignant tumor, has a poor prognosis. This study aimed to find the best prognostic model for osteosarcoma. There were 2912 patients included from the SEER database and 225 patients from Hebei Province. Patients from the SEER database (2008-2015) were included in the development dataset. Patients from the SEER database (2004-2007) and Hebei Province cohort were included in the external test datasets. The Cox model and three tree-based machine learning algorithms (survival tree [ST], random survival forest [RSF] and gradient boosting machine [GBM]) were used to develop the prognostic models by 10-fold cross-validation with 200 iterations. Additionally, performance of models in the multivariable group was compared with the TNM group. The 3-year and 5-year cancer specific survival (CSS) were 72.71% and 65.92% in the development dataset, respectively. The predictive ability in the multivariable group was superior to that in the TNM group. The calibration curves and consistency in the multivariable group were superior to those in the TNM group. The Cox and RSF models performed better than the ST and GBM models. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-year and 5-year CSS of osteosarcoma patients. The RSF model can be used as a nonparametric alternative to the Cox model. The constructed nomogram based on the Cox model can provide reference for clinicians to formulate specific therapeutic decisions both in America and China.

Predicting metastasis at initial diagnosis and radiotherapy effectiveness in patients with metastatic osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is a primary malignant bone tumor affecting mostly children and adolescents. The overall 10 year survivals of patients with metastatic osteosarcoma are typically less than 20% in the literature and remain concerning. We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of metastasis at initial diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and evaluate the effectiveness of radiotherapy in patients with metastatic osteosarcoma. Clinical and demographic data of patients with osteosarcoma were collected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. We randomly split our analytical sample into the training and validation cohorts, then established and validated a nomogram for predicting the risk of osteosarcoma metastasis at initial diagnosis. The effectiveness of radiotherapy was evaluated by performing propensity score matching in patients underwent surgery + chemotherapy and those underwent surgery + chemotherapy + radiotherapy, among patients with metastatic osteosarcoma. 1439 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in this study. 343 of 1439 had osteosarcoma metastasis by the time of initial presentation. A nomogram for predicting the likelihood of osteosarcoma metastasis by the time of initial presentation was developed. In both unmatched and matched samples, the radiotherapy group demonstrated a superior survival profile comparing with the non-radiotherapy group. Our study established a novel nomogram to evaluate the risk of osteosarcoma with metastasis, and demonstrated that radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy and surgical resection could improve 10-year survival in patients with metastasis. These findings may guide the clinical decision-making for orthopedic surgeons.

A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival in elderly patients with nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma

Background

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a common malignant tumor in the elderly, with an increasing trend in recent years. We aimed to construct a nomogram of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in elderly patients with nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma (nmRCC).

Methods

Clinicopathological information was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in elderly patients with nmRCC from 2010 to 2015. All patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (70%) or a validation cohort (30%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for patient outcomes in the training cohort. A nomogram was constructed based on these independent risk factors to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS and OS in elderly patients with nmRCC. We used a range of methods to validate the accuracy and reliability of the model, including the calibration curve, consistency index (C-index), and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical utility of the model.

Results

A total of 12,116 patients were enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort (N = 8,514) and validation cohort (N = 3,602). In the training cohort, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, marriage, tumor histological type, histological tumor grade, TN stage, tumor size, and surgery are independent risk factors for prognosis. A nomogram was constructed based on independent risk factors to predict CSS and OS at 1-, 3-, and 5- years in elderly patients with nmRCC. The C-index of the training and validation cohorts in CSS were 0.826 and 0.831; in OS, they were 0.733 and 0.734, respectively. The AUC results of the training and validation cohort were similar to the C-index. The calibration curve indicated that the observed value is highly consistent with the predicted value, meaning the model has good accuracy. DCA results suggest that the clinical significance of the nomogram is better than that of traditional TNM staging.

Conclusions

We built a nomogram prediction model to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year CSS and OS of elderly nmRCC patients. This model has good accuracy and discrimination and can help doctors and patients make clinical decisions and active monitoring.

A nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival for elderly patients with gallbladder cancer

Background

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is a highly aggressive malignancy in elderly patients. Our goal is aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly GBC patients.

Method

We extracted clinicopathological data of elderly GBC patients from the SEER database. We used univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to select the independent risk factors of elderly GBC patients. These risk factors were subsequently integrated to construct a predictive nomogram model. C-index, calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to validate the accuracy and discrimination of the predictive nomogram model. A decision analysis curve (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomogram.

Result

A total of 4241 elderly GBC patients were enrolled. We randomly divided patients from 2004 to 2015 into training cohort (n = 2237) and validation cohort (n = 1000), and patients from 2016 to 2018 as external validation cohort (n = 1004). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis found that age, tumor histological grade, TNM stage, surgical method, chemotherapy, and tumor size were independent risk factors for the prognosis of elderly GBC patients. All independent risk factors selected were integrated into the nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival at 1-, 3-, and 5- years. In the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.763, 0.756, and 0.786, respectively. The calibration curves suggested that the predicted value of the nomogram is highly consistent with the actual observed value. AUC also showed the high authenticity of the prediction model. DCA manifested that the nomogram model had better prediction ability than the conventional TNM staging system.

Conclusion

We constructed a predictive nomogram model to predict CSS in elderly GBC patients by integrating independent risk factors. With relatively high accuracy and reliability, the nomogram can help clinicians predict the prognosis of patients and make more rational clinical decisions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02544-y.