Modeling Classical Swine Fever Outbreak-Related Outcomes

Modeling the Spread of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Among Pig Farms in Lira District of Northern Uganda

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is a viral swine disease that causes reproductive failure in breeding sows and respiratory distress in growing pigs. The main objectives were to simulate the transmission patterns of PRRS in Uganda using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) and to evaluate the potential effect of prevention and control options such as vaccination and movement control. The median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks for the baseline scenario was 735 (36.75% of the 2,000 farms). The best effects of vaccination were observed in scenarios 60% farm coverage and 80% farm coverage, which resulted in 82 and 98.2% reduction in the median number of infectious farms at the end of the simulation, respectively. Vaccination of all medium and large farms only (33% of the farms) resulted in a 71.2% decrease in the median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks. Movement control (MC) results showed that the median number of infectious farms at the end of 52 weeks decreased by 21.6, 52.3, 79.4, and 92.4% for scenarios MC 20, MC 40, MC 60, and MC 80%, respectively. This study provides new insights to the government of Uganda on how PRRS can be controlled. The large and medium farms need to be prioritized for vaccination, which would be a feasible and effective way to limit the spread of PRRS in Uganda. Scavenging pigs should be confined at all times, whether in the presence or absence of any disease outbreaks.

Improved Antiviral Activity of Classical Swine Fever Virus-Targeted siRNA by Tetrahedral Framework Nucleic Acid-Enhanced Delivery

DNA self-assembled nanostructures have been considered as effective vehicles for biomolecule delivery because of their excellent biocompatibility, cellular permeability, noncytotoxicity, and small size. Here, we report an efficient antiviral strategy with self-assembled tetrahedral framework nucleic acids (tFNAs) delivering small interfering RNA (t-siRNA) to silence classical swine fever virus (CSFV) gene in porcine host cells. In this study, two previously reported siRNAs, C3 and C6, specifically targeting the CSFV genome were selected and modified on tFNAs, respectively, and termed t-C3 and t-C6. Results indicate that t-C3 and t-C6 can inhibit the viral proliferation of CSFV in kidney derived porcine cells, PK-15, effectively and that inhibition was markedly stronger than free siRNA-C3 or siRNA-C6 only. In addition, the DNA nanostructure also has high cargo-carrying capacity, allowing to deliver multiple functional groups. To improve the antiviral ability of tFNAs, a dual-targeting DNA nanostructure t-C3-C6 was constructed and used to silence the CSFV gene in porcine host cells. This study found that t-C3-C6 can inhibit the viral release and replication, exhibiting outstanding anti-CSFV capabilities. Therefore, these dual-targeting tFNAs have great potential in virus therapy. This strategy not only provides a novel method to inhibit CSFV replication in porcine cells but also verifies that tFNAs are effective tools for delivery of antiviral elements, which have great application potential.

Contrasting animal movement and spatial connectivity networks in shaping transmission pathways of a genetically diverse virus

Analyses of livestock movement networks has become key to understanding an industry's vulnerability to infectious disease spread and for identifying farms that play disproportionate roles in pathogen dissemination. In addition to animal movements, many pathogens can spread between farms via mechanisms mediated by spatial proximity. Heterogeneities in contact patterns based on spatial proximity are less commonly considered in network studies, and studies that jointly consider spatial connectivity and animal movement are rare. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which movement versus spatial proximity networks determine the distribution of an economically important endemic virus, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), within a swine-dense region of the U.S. PRRSV can be classified into numerous phylogenetic lineages. Such data can be used to better resolve between-farm infection chains and elucidate types of contact most associated with transmission. Here, we construct movement and spatial proximity networks; farms within the networks were classified as cases if a given PRRSV lineage had been recovered at least once in a year for each of three years analyzed. We evaluated six lineages and sub-lineages across three years, and evaluated the epidemiological relevance of each network by applying network k-tests to statistically evaluate whether the pattern of case occurrence within the network was consistent with transmission via network linkages. Our results indicated that animal movements, not local area spread, play a dominant role in shaping transmission pathways, though there were differences amongst lineages. The median number of case farms inter-linked via animal movements was approximately 4.1x higher than random expectations (range: 1.7-13.7; p < 0.05, network k-test), whereas this measure was only 2.7x higher than random expectations for farms linked via spatial proximity (range: 1.3-5.4; p < 0.05, network k-test). For spatial proximity networks, contact based on proximities of <5 km appeared to have greater epidemiological relevance than longer distances, likely related to diminishing probabilities of local area spread at greater distances. However, the greater overall levels of connectivity of the spatial network compared to the movement network highlights the vulnerability of pig populations to widespread transmission via this route. By combining genetic data with network analysis, this research advances our understanding of dynamics of between-farm spread of PRRSV, helps establish the relative importance of transmission via animal movements versus local area spread, and highlights the potential for targeted control strategies based upon heterogeneities in network connectivity.

Estimation of swine movement network at farm level in the US from the Census of Agriculture data

Swine movement networks among farms/operations are an important source of information to understand and prevent the spread of diseases, nearly nonexistent in the United States. An understanding of the movement networks can help the policymakers in planning effective disease control measures. The objectives of this work are: (1) estimate swine movement probabilities at the county level from comprehensive anonymous inventory and sales data published by the United States Department of Agriculture - National Agriculture Statistics Service database, (2) develop a network based on those estimated probabilities, and (3) analyze that network using network science metrics. First, we use a probabilistic approach based on the maximum information entropy method to estimate the movement probabilities among different swine populations. Then, we create a swine movement network using the estimated probabilities for the counties of the central agricultural district of Iowa. The analysis of this network has found evidence of the small-world phenomenon. Our study suggests that the US swine industry may be vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks because of the small-world structure of its movement network. Our system is easily adaptable to estimate movement networks for other sets of data, farm animal production systems, and geographic regions.

Role of animal movement and indirect contact among farms in transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

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The emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) caused a major epidemic.

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We developed a model simulating the between-farm spread of PEDv.

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Probabilities of each transmission mode were calibrated to match observed dynamics.

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Transmission was mostly between neighboring farms or through pig movements.

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However, long-distance jumps were primarily due to contaminated fomites and feed.

Epidemiological models of the spread of pathogens in livestock populations primarily focus on direct contact between farms based on animal movement data, and in some cases, local spatial spread based on proximity between premises. The roles of other types of indirect contact among farms is rarely accounted for. In addition, data on animal movements is seldom available in the United States. However, the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in U.S. swine represents one of the best documented emergences of a highly infectious pathogen in the U.S. livestock industry, providing an opportunity to parameterize models of pathogen spread via direct and indirect transmission mechanisms in swine. Using observed data on pig movements during the initial phase of the PEDv epidemic, we developed a network-based and spatially explicit epidemiological model that simulates the spread of PEDv via both indirect and direct movement-related contact in order to answer unresolved questions concerning factors facilitating between-farm transmission. By modifying the likelihood of each transmission mechanism and fitting this model to observed epidemiological dynamics, our results suggest that between-farm transmission was primarily driven by direct mechanisms related to animal movement and indirect mechanisms related to local spatial spread based on geographic proximity. However, other forms of indirect transmission among farms, including contact via contaminated vehicles and feed, were responsible for high consequence transmission events resulting in the introduction of the virus into new geographic areas. This research is among the first reports of farm-level animal movements in the U.S. swine industry and, to our knowledge, represents the first epidemiological model of commercial U.S. swine using actual data on farm-level animal movement.

Recombinant Swinepox Virus Expressing Glycoprotein E2 of Classical Swine Fever Virus Confers Complete Protection in Pigs upon Viral Challenge

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious and serious viral disease that affects the pig industry worldwide. The glycoprotein E2 of the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) can induce neutralizing antibodies, and it is widely used for novel vaccine development. To explore the development of a vaccine against CSFV infections, the gene of glycoprotein E2 was inserted into the swinepox virus (SPV) genome by homologous recombination. The culture titers of rSPV-E2 remained at about 4.3 × 10⁶ TCID₅₀ for more than 60 passages in PK15 and swine testis cell lines. The rSPV-E2 could not be replicated in Vero, MDBK or other non-porcine cell lines. After two to three passages, the SPV specific gene of rSPV-E2 could not been detected in the non-porcine cell culture. To evaluate the immunogenicity of rSPV-E2, 20 CSFV seronegative minipigs were immunized with rSPV-E2, a commercial C-strain vaccine, wild-type SPV (wtSPV; negative control), or PBS (a no-challenge control). After challenge with CSFV, pigs in the rSPV-E2-immunized group showed significantly shorter fever duration compared with the wtSPV-treated group (P < 0.05). E2-specific antibodies in the rSPV-E2-immunized group increased dramatically after vaccination and increased continuously over time. CSFV genomic copies in the serum of rSPV-E2-immunized pigs were significantly less compared with the wtSPV-treated group at all time points after challenge (P < 0.01). Significant reduction in gross lung lesion scores, histopathological liver, spleen, lung, and kidney lesion scores were noted in the rSPV-E2-immunized group compared with the wtSPV-treated group (P < 0.01). The results suggested that the recombinant rSPV-E2 provided pigs with significant protection from CSFV infections; thus, rSPV-E2 offers proof of principle for the development of a vaccine for the prevention of CSFV infections in pigs.

Estimating the scale of adverse animal welfare consequences of movement restriction and mitigation strategies in a classical swine fever outbreak

Background

The study aim was to quantify the impact of movement restriction on the well-being of pigs and the associated mitigation responses during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak. We developed a stochastic risk assessment model and incorporated Indiana swine industry statistics to estimate the timing and number of swine premises that would encounter overcrowding or feed interruption resulting from movement restriction. Our model also quantified the amount of on-farm euthanasia and movement of pigs to slaughter plants required to alleviate those conditions. We simulated various single-site (i.e., an outbreak initiated from one location) and multiple-site (i.e., an outbreak initiated from more than one location) outbreak scenarios in Indiana to estimate outputs.

Results

The study estimated that 14% of the swine premises in Indiana would encounter overcrowding or feed interruption due to movement restriction implemented during a CSF outbreak. The number of premises that would experience animal welfare conditions was about 2.5 fold of the number of infected premises. On-farm euthanasia needed to be performed on 33% of those swine premises to alleviate adverse animal welfare conditions, and more than 90% of on-farm euthanasia had to be carried out within 2 weeks after the implementation of movement restriction. Conversely, movement of pigs to slaughter plants could alleviate 67% of adverse animal welfare conditions due to movement restriction, and only less than 1% of movement of pigs to slaughter plants had to be initiated in the first 2 weeks of movement restrictions. The risk of secondary outbreaks due to movement of pigs from movement restriction areas to slaughter plants was low and only seven pigs from each shipment needed to be tested for CSF infection to prevent a secondary outbreak.

Conclusions

We found that the scale of adverse animal welfare consequences of movement restriction during a CSF outbreak in Indiana was substantial, and controlled movement of pigs to slaughter plants was an efficient and low-risk alternative mitigation response to on-farm euthanasia. The output estimates generated from this study provide empirical evidence for decision makers to properly incorporate required resources for mitigating adverse animal welfare conditions in CSF outbreak management strategic planning.

Evaluation of Movement Restriction Zone Sizes in Controlling Classical Swine Fever Outbreaks

The objective of this study was to compare the impacts of movement restriction zone sizes of 3, 5, 9, and 11 km with that of 7 km (the recommended zone size in the United States) in controlling a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak. In addition to zone size, different compliance assumptions and outbreak types (single site and multiple site) were incorporated in the study. Three assumptions of compliance level were simulated: baseline, baseline ± 10%, and baseline ± 15%. The compliance level was held constant across all zone sizes in the baseline simulation. In the baseline ± 10% and baseline ± 15% simulations, the compliance level was increased for 3 and 5 km and decreased for 9 and 11 km from the baseline by the indicated percentages. The compliance level remained constant in all simulations for the 7-km zone size. Four single-site (i.e., with one index premises at the onset of outbreak) and four multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of outbreak) CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana were simulated incorporating various zone sizes and compliance assumptions using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate epidemic duration, percentage of infected, and preemptively culled swine premises. Furthermore, a risk assessment model that incorporated the results from the disease spread model was developed to estimate the number of swine premises under movement restrictions that would experience animal welfare outcomes of overcrowding or feed interruption during a CSF outbreak in Indiana. Compared with the 7-km zone size, the 3-km zone size resulted in a longer median epidemic duration, larger percentages of infected premises, and preemptively culled premises (P’s < 0.001) across all compliance assumptions and outbreak types. With the assumption of a higher compliance level, the 5-km zone size significantly (P < 0.001) reduced the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises that would experience animal welfare outcomes in both outbreak types, whereas assumption of a lower compliance level for 9- and 11-km zone sizes significantly (P < 0.001) increased the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises with animal welfare outcomes compared with the 7-km zone size. The magnitude of impact due to a zone size varied across the outbreak types (single site and multiple site). Overall, the 7-km zone size was found to be most effective in controlling CSF outbreaks, whereas the 5-km zone size was comparable to the 7-km zone size in some circumstances.

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak

A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.