Quantitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) Virus Introduction Into the FMD-Free Zone Without Vaccination of Argentina Through Legal and Illegal Trade of Bone-in Beef and Unvaccinated Susceptible Species

Quantitative risk assessment of FMDV introduction in a FMD free country through bone-in beef and offal importation from a FMD free with vaccination country/zone

Quantitative risk assessment was used to estimate the risk of introducing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) through bone-in beef from Argentina (FMD-free with vaccination status) into other FMD-free countries. A stochastic model was built to characterize all the steps from primary production to bone-in beef export and introduction into an FMD-free country. The probability that bone-in beef from at least one animal infected with the FMD virus (FMDV) was exported during a year was 5.27 × 10-3 (95% CI <10-10 - 5.19 x 10-2) or in other words one case in 190 years. The risk of FMDV introduction was sensitive to the probability of an outbreak occurring in Argentina (r [Spearman´s rank correlation] = 0.99) and the number of herds affected during an outbreak (r = 0.10). Additionally, the probability that susceptible animals in the importing country came into contact with infective material (bones) and generated an outbreak was 6.16 × 10-4 (95% CI <10-10 - 6.20 ×10-3) or one FMD outbreak every 1623 years on average. Based on the quantitative risk assessment results, the probability of FMDV introduction into a FMD-free country where vaccination is not practiced from a FMD-free country where vaccination is practiced associated with bone-in beef trade from Argentina was negligible. The risk of an FMD outbreak caused by the potential introduction of the FMDV was associated with the existing conditions in the country. Thus, maintaining the FMD-free status with or without vaccination would not be relevant.

A foot and mouth disease ranking of risk using cattle transportation

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious condition that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals. This disease has substantial economic consequences. Livestock movement is one of the primary causes of disease dissemination. The centrality properties of the livestock mobilization transportation network provide valuable information for surveillance and control of FMD. However, the same transportation network can be described by different centrality descriptions, making it challenging to prioritize the most vulnerable nodes in the transportation network. This work considers the construction of a single network risk ranking, which helps prioritize disease control measurements. Results show that the proposed ranking constructed on 2016 livestock mobilization data may predict an actual outbreak reported in the Cesar (Colombia) region in 2018, with a performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. This result constitutes the first quantitative evidence of the predictive capacity of livestock transportation to target FMD outbreaks. This approach may help decision-makers devise strategies to control and prevent FMD.

Models to assess the risk of introduction of selected animal viral diseases through the importation of live animals as a key part of risk analysis

Introduction of an animal viral disease, especially a notifiable disease, into an importing country or region free from the disease may lead to serious epidemiological consequences and economic losses. Trade in live animals is historically considered one of the most important risk pathways. To estimate the magnitude of such risk, the likelihood of a virus’ entry into a country and the consequences of this event should be jointly evaluated. Depending on data availability, the urgency of the problem and the detail level of the objectives, a risk assessment may be conducted in a qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative way. The purpose of this review was firstly to provide a brief description of each step of the risk analysis process, with particular emphasis on the risk assessment component, and subsequently to supply examples of different approaches to the assessment of the risk of the introduction of selected animal viral diseases. Based on the reviewed models, the overall likelihood of introduction of particular diseases was generally estimated as low. The output risk value was strongly dependent on the duration of the silent phase of the epidemic in the country of origin. Other parameters with some bearing upon the risk derived from the epidemiological situation in the country of origin and the biosecurity or mitigation measures implemented in the country of destination. The investigated models are universal tools for conducting assessment of the risk of introduction of various animal diseases to any country. Their application may lead to timely implementation of appropriate measures for the prevention of the spread of a disease to another country or region.

Self-Reporting of Risk Pathways and Parameter Values for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Slaughter Cattle from Alternative Production Systems by Kenyan and Ugandan Veterinarians

Countries in which foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n = 13) and Uganda (n = 10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.

Choosing awareness over fear: Risk analysis and free trade support global food security

Livestock production and global trade are key components to achieving food security, but are bedfellows with the risk for emergence and spread of infectious diseases. The World Trade Organization's Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures outlines provisions for member countries to protect animal, plant, and public health while promoting free trade. The capacity for risk analysis equips countries to increase access to export markets, improve local animal health and food safety regarding known hazards, and build the institutional capacity to respond to unexpected events. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to detect, report, and implement effective response measures to emerging challenges on a local and global scale, and it is crucial that these measures are implemented in a way that supports food production and trade. The use of risk analysis coupled with sound understanding of underlying system dynamics will contribute to resilient and enduring food systems.

Evaluation of human resources needed and comparison with human resources available to implement emergency vaccination in case of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Tunisia

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects domestic and wild artiodactyl animals and causes considerable economic losses related to outbreak management, production losses and trade impacts. In Tunisia, the last FMD outbreak took place in 2018-2019. The effectiveness of control measures implemented to control FMD depends, in particular, on the human resources used to implement them. Tunisia has the ultimate objective of obtaining OIE status as 'FMD-free with vaccination'. The aim of this study was to determine and compare the necessary and available human resources to control FMD outbreaks in Tunisia using emergency vaccination and to assess the gaps that would play a role in the implementation of the strategy. We developed a resources-requirement grid of necessary human resources for the management of the emergency vaccination campaign launched after the identification of a FMD-infected premises in Tunisia. Field surveys, conducted in the 24 governorates of Tunisia, allowed quantifying the available human resources for several categories of skills considered in the resources-requirement grid. For each governorate, we then compared available and necessary human resources to implement vaccination according to eight scenarios mixing generalised or cattle-targeted vaccination and different levels of human resources. The resources-requirement grid included 11 tasks in three groups: management of FMD-infected premises, organisational tasks and vaccination implementation. The available human resources for vaccination-related tasks included veterinarians and technicians from the public sector and appointed private veterinarians. The comparison of available and necessary human resources showed vaccination-related tasks to be the most time-consuming in terms of managing a FMD outbreak. Increasing the available human resources using appointed private veterinarians allowed performing the emergency vaccination of animals in the governorate in due time, especially if vaccination was targeted on cattle. The overall approach was validated by comparing the predicted and observed durations of a vaccination campaign conducted under the same conditions as during the 2014 Tunisian outbreak. This study could provide support to the Tunisian Veterinary Services or to other countries to optimise the management of a FMD outbreak.