Random Forest Modelling of Milk Yield of Dairy Cows under Heat Stress Conditions

Heat Stress in Dairy Cows: Impacts, Identification, and Mitigation Strategies-A Review

Heat stress in animals affects productivity, health, and reproduction, with particularly pronounced effects in dairy cows. Identifying heat stress requires understanding both physiological and environmental indicators, such as increased heart rate, respiratory rate, and rectal temperature, which reflect the animal's thermal condition within its environment. Thermoregulation in cows involves behavioral and physiological adjustments to maintain homeothermy, aiming to stabilize their internal thermal state. To assess the thermal condition of animals, machine learning models have been developed, leveraging both environmental and physiological indicators for more accurate stress detection. Among the various indices of thermal environment, the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) is the most widely used. Cooling strategies for animals and their environments are essential to mitigate the effects of heat stress. One effective approach involves the use of evaporative adiabatic cooling combined with forced ventilation systems in feeding alleys and pre-milking holding areas. This method enhances evaporative exchanges and facilitates heat dissipation between the animal and its surroundings, thereby alleviating heat stress and improving both the welfare and productivity of dairy cows.

Applications of Artificial Intelligence for Heat Stress Management in Ruminant Livestock

Heat stress impacts ruminant livestock production on varied levels in this alarming climate breakdown scenario. The drastic effects of the global climate change-associated heat stress in ruminant livestock demands constructive evaluation of animal performance bordering on effective monitoring systems. In this climate-smart digital age, adoption of advanced and developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies is gaining traction for efficient heat stress management. AI has widely penetrated the climate sensitive ruminant livestock sector due to its promising and plausible scope in assessing production risks and the climate resilience of ruminant livestock. Significant improvement has been achieved alongside the adoption of novel AI algorithms to evaluate the performance of ruminant livestock. These AI-powered tools have the robustness and competence to expand the evaluation of animal performance and help in minimising the production losses associated with heat stress in ruminant livestock. Advanced heat stress management through automated monitoring of heat stress in ruminant livestock based on behaviour, physiology and animal health responses have been widely accepted due to the evolution of technologies like machine learning (ML), neural networks and deep learning (DL). The AI-enabled tools involving automated data collection, pre-processing, data wrangling, development of appropriate algorithms, and deployment of models assist the livestock producers in decision-making based on real-time monitoring and act as early-stage warning systems to forecast disease dynamics based on prediction models. Due to the convincing performance, precision, and accuracy of AI models, the climate-smart livestock production imbibes AI technologies for scaled use in the successful reducing of heat stress in ruminant livestock, thereby ensuring sustainable livestock production and safeguarding the global economy.

Examining optimized machine learning models for accurate multi-month drought forecasting: A representative case study in the USA

The Colorado River has experienced a significant streamflow reduction in recent decades due to climate change, resulting in pronounced hydrological droughts that pose challenges to the environment and human activities. However, current models struggle to accurately capture complex drought patterns, and their accuracy decreases as the lead time increases. Thus, determining the reliability of drought forecasting for specific months ahead presents a challenging task. This study introduces a robust approach that utilizes the Beluga Whale Optimization (BWO) algorithm to train and optimize the parameters of the Regularized Extreme Learning Machine (RELM) and Random Forest (RF) models. The applied models are validated against a KNN benchmark model for forecasting drought from one- to six-month ahead across four hydrological stations distributed over the Colorado River. The achieved results demonstrate that RELM-BWO outperforms RF-BWO and KNN models, achieving the lowest root-mean square error (0.2795), uncertainty (U95 = 0.1077), mean absolute error (0.2104), and highest correlation coefficient (0.9135). Also, the current study uses Global Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (GMCDA) as an evaluation metric to assess the reliability of the forecasting. The GMCDA results indicate that RELM-BWO provides reliable forecasts up to four months ahead. Overall, the research methodology is valuable for drought assessment and forecasting, enabling advanced early warning systems and effective drought countermeasures.

Improving the academic resilience of hospital nursing interns through a hybrid multi-criteria decision analysis model

Purpose: To identify the main variables affecting the academic adaptability of hospital nursing interns and key areas for improvement in preparing for future unpredictable epidemics. Methods: The importance of academic resilience-related variables for all nursing interns was analyzed using the random forest method, and key variables were further identified. An importance-performance analysis was used to identify the key improvement gaps regarding the academic resilience of nursing interns in the case hospital. Results: The random forest showed that five items related to cooperation, motivation, confidence, communication, and difficulty with coping were the main variables impacting the academic resilience of nursing interns. Moreover, the importance-performance analysis revealed that three items regarding options examination, communication, and confidence were the key improvement areas for participating nursing interns in the case hospital. Conclusions: For the prevention and control of future unpredictable pandemics, hospital nursing departments can strengthen the link between interns, nurses, and physicians and promote their cooperation and communication during clinical practice. At the same time, an application can be created considering the results of this study and combined with machine learning methods for more in-depth research. These will improve the academic resilience of nursing interns during the routine management of pandemics within hospitals.

Machine Learning to Predict Pregnancy in Dairy Cows: An Approach Integrating Automated Activity Monitoring and On-Farm Data

Automated activity monitoring (AAM) systems are critical in the dairy industry for detecting estrus and optimizing the timing of artificial insemination (AI), thus enhancing pregnancy success rates in cows. This study developed a predictive model to improve pregnancy success by integrating AAM data with cow-specific and environmental factors. Utilizing data from 1,054 cows, this study compared the pregnancy outcomes between two AI timings-8 or 10 h post-AAM alarm. Variables such as age, parity, body condition, locomotion, and vaginal discharge scores, peripartum diseases, the breeding program, the bull used for AI, milk production at the time of AI, and environmental conditions (season, relative humidity, and temperature-humidity index) were considered alongside the AAM data on rumination, activity, and estrus intensity. Six predictive models were assessed to determine their efficacy in predicting pregnancy success: logistic regression, Bagged AdaBoost algorithm, linear discriminant, random forest, support vector machine, and Bagged Classification Tree. Integrating the on-farm data with AAM significantly enhanced the pregnancy prediction accuracy at AI compared to using AAM data alone. The random forest models showed a superior performance, with the highest Kappa statistic and lowest false positive rates. The linear discriminant and logistic regression models demonstrated the best accuracy, minimal false negatives, and the highest area under the curve. These findings suggest that combining on-farm and AAM data can significantly improve reproductive management in the dairy industry.

Thermal Comfort of Nelore Cattle (Bos indicus) Managed in Silvopastoral and Traditional Systems Associated with Rumination in a Humid Tropical Environment in the Eastern Amazon, Brazil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal comfort of Nelore cattle (Bos indicus) managed in silvopastoral and traditional systems associated with rumination behavior in a humid tropical environment in the Eastern Amazon, Brazil. The study was carried out on a rural property in Mojuí dos Campos, Pará, Brazil, during the transition period of the year, from June to July 2023. Over these two months, six consecutive data collection days were held. We selected 20 clinically healthy non-castrated male Nelore cattle, aged between 18 and 20 months, with an average weight of 250 kg and body condition score of 3.5 (1-5). These animals were randomly divided into two groups: traditional system (TS) and silvopastoral system (SS). The physiological variables evaluated included RR, RT and BST. The variables were analyzed using the linear mixed model. For agrometeorological variables, higher values were observed between 10:00 a.m. (33 °C) and 6:00 p.m. (30 °C), with the highest temperature observed at 4:00 p.m. (40 °C). The RR showed interactions (p = 0.0214) between systems and times; in general, higher RR were obtained in the Traditional. The animals' RT showed no significant difference (p < 0.05) between the production systems, but there was a statistically significant difference in relation to the time of collection (p < 0.0001). In the BGHI, it was possible to observe that there was mild stress in the period from 22:00 at night to 6:00 in the morning and moderate stress in the period of greatest increase in temperature, from 10:00 in the morning to 18:00 at night. BST showed no statistical difference between the regions studied or between the SP (35.6 °C) and TS (36.25 °C) systems. RT in the TS showed a positive correlation with AT (r = 0.31507; p = 0.0477). RT in the SP showed a positive correlation with THI (r = 35583; p = 0.0242). On the other hand, RT in the SP (r = 0.42873; p = 0.0058) and ST (r = 0.51015; p = 0.0008) showed a positive correlation with BGHI. RR in the TS showed a positive correlation with BGHI (r = 0.44908; p = 0.0037). The greatest amounts of rumination were carried out by animals in the SP system, generally ruminating lying down (p < 0.05). With regard to rumination behavior in the morning and afternoon, there were higher numbers of WS and LD in the TS (p > 0.05). Most of the time, the cattle were LD during the morning and afternoon shifts, and at night and dawn they were WS in the TS. Therefore, the SP offers more thermal comfort advantages compared to the TS system.

Health Status Classification for Cows Using Machine Learning and Data Management on AWS Cloud

The health and welfare of livestock are significant for ensuring the sustainability and profitability of the agricultural industry. Addressing efficient ways to monitor and report the health status of individual cows is critical to prevent outbreaks and maintain herd productivity. The purpose of the study is to develop a machine learning (ML) model to classify the health status of milk cows into three categories. In this research, data are collected from existing non-invasive IoT devices and tools in a dairy farm, monitoring the micro- and macroenvironment of the cow in combination with particular information on age, days in milk, lactation, and more. A workflow of various data-processing methods is systematized and presented to create a complete, efficient, and reusable roadmap for data processing, modeling, and real-world integration. Following the proposed workflow, the data were treated, and five different ML algorithms were trained and tested to select the most descriptive one to monitor the health status of individual cows. The highest result for health status assessment is obtained by random forest classifier (RFC) with an accuracy of 0.959, recall of 0.954, and precision of 0.97. To increase the security, speed, and reliability of the work process, a cloud architecture of services is presented to integrate the trained model as an additional functionality in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) environment. The classification results of the ML model are visualized in a newly created interface in the client application.

Precision Livestock Farming Research: A Global Scientometric Review

Precision livestock farming (PLF) utilises information technology to continuously monitor and manage livestock in real-time, which can improve individual animal health, welfare, productivity and the environmental impact of animal husbandry, contributing to the economic, social and environmental sustainability of livestock farming. PLF has emerged as a pivotal area of multidisciplinary interest. In order to clarify the knowledge evolution and hotspot replacement of PLF research, based on the relevant data from the Web of Science database from 1973 to 2023, this study analyzed the main characteristics, research cores and hot topics of PLF research via CiteSpace. The results point to a significant increase in studies on PLF, with countries having advanced livestock farming systems in Europe and America publishing frequently and collaborating closely across borders. Universities in various countries have been leading the research, with Daniel Berckmans serving as the academic leader. Research primarily focuses on animal science, veterinary science, computer science, agricultural engineering, and environmental science. Current research hotspots center around precision dairy and cattle technology, intelligent systems, and animal behavior, with deep learning, accelerometer, automatic milking systems, lameness, estrus detection, and electronic identification being the main research directions, and deep learning and machine learning represent the forefront of current research. Research hot topics mainly include social science in PLF, the environmental impact of PLF, information technology in PLF, and animal welfare in PLF. Future research in PLF should prioritize inter-institutional and inter-scholar communication and cooperation, integration of multidisciplinary and multimethod research approaches, and utilization of deep learning and machine learning. Furthermore, social science issues should be given due attention in PLF, and the integration of intelligent technologies in animal management should be strengthened, with a focus on animal welfare and the environmental impact of animal husbandry, to promote its sustainable development.

A Literature Review of Modeling Approaches Applied to Data Collected in Automatic Milking Systems

Automatic milking systems (AMS) have played a pioneering role in the advancement of Precision Livestock Farming, revolutionizing the dairy farming industry on a global scale. This review specifically targets papers that focus on the use of modeling approaches within the context of AMS. We conducted a thorough review of 60 articles that specifically address the topics of cows' health, production, and behavior/management Machine Learning (ML) emerged as the most widely used method, being present in 63% of the studies, followed by statistical analysis (14%), fuzzy algorithms (9%), deterministic models (7%), and detection algorithms (7%). A significant majority of the reviewed studies (82%) primarily focused on the detection of cows' health, with a specific emphasis on mastitis, while only 11% evaluated milk production. Accurate forecasting of dairy cow milk yield and understanding the deviation between expected and observed milk yields of individual cows can offer significant benefits in dairy cow management. Likewise, the study of cows' behavior and herd management in AMSs is under-explored (7%). Despite the growing utilization of machine learning (ML) techniques in the field of dairy cow management, there remains a lack of a robust methodology for their application. Specifically, we found a substantial disparity in adequately balancing the positive and negative classes within health prediction models.

Predictive Models of Dairy Cow Thermal State: A Review from a Technological Perspective

Simple Summary

Heat stress in cattle is broadly defined as a physiological condition in which body temperature rises, and the animals are no longer able to adequately dissipate body heat to maintain thermal equilibrium due to environmental factors. Dairy cattle are particularly sensitive to heat stress because of the higher metabolic rate needed for milk production. Due to global warming and the expected growth of milk production in warmer regions, an increase in the occurrence of heat stress can only be avoided with the use of environmental control systems. However, most available systems were developed to take corrective measures or are not accurate enough to effectively prevent heat stress, as there is not yet an automated technological solution that considers all the environmental and animal variables that determine the occurrence of this condition. Further, these systems must be connected in time to prevent this condition in cattle but also disconnected when they are no longer needed, as their use raises major economic and environmental concerns regarding energy and water consumption. This review describes and discusses three types of predictive models that can make these systems more effective in preventing heat stress and more efficient in the use of energy and water.

Abstract

Dairy cattle are particularly sensitive to heat stress due to the higher metabolic rate needed for milk production. In recent decades, global warming and the increase in dairy production in warmer countries have stimulated the development of a wide range of environmental control systems for dairy farms. Despite their proven effectiveness, the associated energy and water consumption can compromise the viability of dairy farms in many regions, due to the cost and scarcity of these resources. To make these systems more efficient, they should be activated in time to prevent thermal stress and switched off when that risk no longer exists, which must consider environmental variables as well as the variables of the animals themselves. Nowadays, there is a wide range of sensors and equipment that support farm routine procedures, and it is possible to measure several variables that, with the aid of algorithms based on predictive models, would allow anticipating animals’ thermal states. This review summarizes three types of approaches as predictive models: bioclimatic indexes, machine learning, and mechanistic models. It also focuses on the application of the current knowledge as algorithms to be used in the management of diverse types of environmental control systems.

Industry 4.0 and Precision Livestock Farming (PLF): An up to Date Overview across Animal Productions

Precision livestock farming (PLF) has spread to various countries worldwide since its inception in 2003, though it has yet to be widely adopted. Additionally, the advent of Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things (IoT) have enabled a continued advancement and development of PLF. This modern technological approach to animal farming and production encompasses ethical, economic and logistical aspects. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of PLF and Industry 4.0, to identify current applications of this rather novel approach in different farming systems for food producing animals, and to present up to date knowledge on the subject. Current scientific literature regarding the spread and application of PLF and IoT shows how efficient farm animal management systems are destined to become. Everyday farming practices (feeding and production performance) coupled with continuous and real-time monitoring of animal parameters can have significant impacts on welfare and health assessment, which are current themes of public interest. In the context of feeding a rising global population, the agri-food industry and industry 4.0 technologies may represent key features for successful and sustainable development.

Application of Machine Learning Models for Fast and Accurate Predictions of Building Energy Need

Accurate prediction of building energy need plays a fundamental role in building design, despite the high computational cost to search for optimal energy saving solutions. An important advancement in the reduction of computational time could come from the application of machine learning models to circumvent energy simulations. With the goal of drastically limiting the number of simulations, in this paper we investigate the regression performance of different machine learning models, i.e., Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting, trained on a small data-set of energy simulations performed on a case study building. Among the XX algorithms, the tree-based Extreme Gradient Boosting showed the best performance. Overall, we find that machine learning methods offer efficient and interpretable solutions, that could help academics and professionals in shaping better design strategies, informed by feature importance.

Over 20 Years of Machine Learning Applications on Dairy Farms: A Comprehensive Mapping Study

Machine learning applications are becoming more ubiquitous in dairy farming decision support applications in areas such as feeding, animal husbandry, healthcare, animal behavior, milking and resource management. Thus, the objective of this mapping study was to collate and assess studies published in journals and conference proceedings between 1999 and 2021, which applied machine learning algorithms to dairy farming-related problems to identify trends in the geographical origins of data, as well as the algorithms, features and evaluation metrics and methods used. This mapping study was carried out in line with PRISMA guidelines, with six pre-defined research questions (RQ) and a broad and unbiased search strategy that explored five databases. In total, 129 publications passed the pre-defined selection criteria, from which relevant data required to answer each RQ were extracted and analyzed. This study found that Europe (43% of studies) produced the largest number of publications (RQ1), while the largest number of articles were published in the Computers and Electronics in Agriculture journal (21%) (RQ2). The largest number of studies addressed problems related to the physiology and health of dairy cows (32%) (RQ3), while the most frequently employed feature data were derived from sensors (48%) (RQ4). The largest number of studies employed tree-based algorithms (54%) (RQ5), while RMSE (56%) (regression) and accuracy (77%) (classification) were the most frequently employed metrics used, and hold-out cross-validation (39%) was the most frequently employed evaluation method (RQ6). Since 2018, there has been more than a sevenfold increase in the number of studies that focused on the physiology and health of dairy cows, compared to almost a threefold increase in the overall number of publications, suggesting an increased focus on this subdomain. In addition, a fivefold increase in the number of publications that employed neural network algorithms was identified since 2018, in comparison to a threefold increase in the use of both tree-based algorithms and statistical regression algorithms, suggesting an increasing utilization of neural network-based algorithms.

Impact of Heat Stress on Selected Parameters of Robotic Milking

The values of the temperature-humidity index and its influence on the performance parameters of dairy cows were monitored on four farms located in the southern part of the central Slovakia during a period of three years. The observed parameters included: the milk yield per cow per day, average milk speed and maximum milk speed. The thermal-humidity index was calculated based on a formula. The individual periods were divided according to the achieved THI. The results of dairy cows with a milk yield of 29 kg to 31 kg show that there is not a decrease in the milk yield per milking if the THI value is lower than 68. It was also found that there was a decrease in the milk yield per dairy cow in the robotic milking parlor for a THI value greater than 72. The influence of a THI value higher than 68 in these dairy cows results in a higher average milk speed, as well as a higher maximum milk speed. These two parameters are not yet in the main area of research interest. This study enriches the area with new knowledge, according to which dairy cows can show thermal stress by increasing the milk speed as well as the maximum milk speed.

Predicting Subclinical Ketosis in Dairy Cows Using Machine Learning Techniques

Simple Summary

The maintenance of cows in good health and physical condition is an important component of dairy cattle management. One of the major metabolic disorders in dairy cows is subclinical ketosis. Due to financial and organizational reasons it is often impossible to test all cows in a herd for ketosis using standard blood examination method. Using milk data from test-day records, obtained without additional costs for breeders, we found diagnostic models identifying cows-at-risk of subclinical ketosis. In addition, to select the best models, we present a general scoring approach for various machine learning models. With our models, breeders can identify dairy cows-at-risk of subclinical ketosis and implement appropriate management strategies and prevent losses in milk production.

Abstract

The diagnosis of subclinical ketosis in dairy cows based on blood ketone bodies is a challenging and costly procedure. Scientists are searching for tools based on results of milk performance assessment that would allow monitoring the risk of subclinical ketosis. The objective of the study was (1) to design a scoring system that would allow choosing the best machine learning models for the identification of cows-at-risk of subclinical ketosis, (2) to select the best performing models, and (3) to validate them using a testing dataset containing unseen data. The scoring system was developed using two machine learning modeling pipelines, one for regression and one for classification. As part of the system, different feature selections, outlier detection, data scaling and oversampling methods were used. Various linear and non-linear models were fit using training datasets and evaluated on holdout, testing the datasets. For the assessment of suitability of individual models for predicting subclinical ketosis, three β-hydroxybutyrate concentration in blood (bBHB) thresholds were defined: 1.0, 1.2 and 1.4 mmol/L. Considering the thresholds of 1.2 and 1.4, the logistic regression model was found to be the best fitted model, which included independent variables such as fat-to-protein ratio, acetone and β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations in milk, lactose percentage, lactation number and days in milk. In the cross-validation, this model showed an average sensitivity of 0.74 or 0.75 and specificity of 0.76 or 0.78, at the pre-defined bBHB threshold 1.2 or 1.4 mmol/L, respectively. The values of these metrics were also similar in the external validation on the testing dataset (0.72 or 0.74 for sensitivity and 0.80 or 0.81 for specificity). For the bBHB threshold at 1.0 mmol/L, the best classification model was the model based on the SVC (Support Vector Classification) machine learning method, for which the sensitivity in the cross-validation was 0.74 and the specificity was 0.73. These metrics had lower values for the testing dataset (0.57 and 0.72 respectively). Regression models were characterized by poor fitness to data (R² < 0.4). The study results suggest that the prediction of subclinical ketosis based on data from test-day records using classification methods and machine learning algorithms can be a useful tool for monitoring the incidence of this metabolic disorder in dairy cattle herds.