Socioeconomic Factors Contributing to Antibiotic Resistance in China: A Panel Data Analysis

Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Aedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great dispersion in rural and urban areas. Mathematical and statistical models have become helpful in understanding these diseases' epidemiological dynamics. However, modelling the complexity of a real phenomenon, such as a viral disease, should consider several factors. This scoping review aims to document, identify and classify the most important factors as well as the modelling strategies for the spread of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters' estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans and/or animals. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations in conferences.

The association between ambient temperature and antimicrobial resistance of Klebsiella pneumoniae in China: a difference-in-differences analysis

Introduction

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of Klebsiella pneumoniae (K. pneumoniae) poses a significant global public health threat and is responsible for a high prevalence of infections and mortality. However, knowledge about how ambient temperature influences the AMR of K. pneumoniae is limited in the context of global warming.

Methods

AMR data of 31 Chinese provinces was collected from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (CARSS) between 2014 and 2020. Socioeconomic and meteorological data were collected from the China Statistical Yearbook during the same period. A modified difference-in-differences (DID) approach was applied to estimate the association between ambient temperature and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K. pneumoniae (3GCRKP) and carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae (CRKP). Furthermore, moderating effects of socioeconomic factors were also evaluated.

Results

Every 1°C increase in annual average temperature was associated with a 4.7% (relative risk (RR):1.047, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.031-1.082) increase in the detection rate of 3GCRKP, and a 10.7% (RR:1.107, 95% CI: 1.011-1.211) increase in the detection rate of CRKP. The relationships between ambient temperature and 3GCRKP and CRKP were found to be moderated by socioeconomic status (GDP per capita, income per capita, and consumption per capita; the interaction p-values <0.05), where higher economic status was found to strengthen the effects of temperature on the detection rate of 3GCRKP and weaken the effects on the detection rate of CRKP.

Discussion

Ambient temperature was found to be positively associated with AMR of K. pneumoniae, and this association was moderated by socioeconomic status. Policymakers should consider the impact of global warming and high temperatures on the spread of 3GCRKP and CRKP when developing strategies for the containment of AMR.

Prevalence of Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria (Enteropathogens) Recovered from a Blend of Pig Manure and Pinewood Saw Dust during Anaerobic Co-Digestion in a Steel Biodigester

South Africa adopts intensive livestock farming, embracing the employment of huge quantities of antibiotics to meet the increased demand for meat. Therefore, bacteria occurring in the animal products and manure might develop antibiotic resistance, a scenario which threatens public health. The study investigated the occurrence of Gram-negative bacteria from eighteen pooled samples withdrawn from a single-stage steel biodigester co-digesting pig manure (75%) and pine wood saw dust (25%). The viable counts for each bacterium were determined using the spread plate technique. The bacterial isolates were characterised based on cultural, morphological and biochemical characteristics, using the Analytical Profile Index 20 e test kit. In addition, isolates were characterised based on susceptibility to 14 conventional antibiotics via the disc diffusion method. The MAR index was calculated for each bacterial isolate. The bacterial counts ranged from 104 to 106 cfu/mL, indicating manure as a potential source of contamination. Overall, 159 bacterial isolates were recovered, which displayed diverse susceptibility patterns with marked sensitivity to amoxicillin (100% E. coli), streptomycin (96.15% for Yersinia spp.; 93.33% for Salmonella spp.) and 75% Campylobacter spp. to nitrofurantoin. Varying resistance rates were equally observed, but a common resistance was demonstrated to erythromycin (100% of Salmonella and Yersinia spp.), 90.63% of E. coli and 78.57% of Campylobacter spp. A total of 91.19% of the bacterial isolates had a MAR index > 0.2, represented by 94 MAR phenotypes. The findings revealed multidrug resistance in bacteria from the piggery source, suggesting they can contribute immensely to the spread of multidrug resistance; thus, it serves as a pointer to the need for the enforcement of regulatory antibiotic use in piggery farms. Therefore, to curb the level of multidrug resistance, the piggery farm should implement control measures in the study area.

Association between antibiotic resistance and increasing ambient temperature in China: An ecological study with nationwide panel data

Background

Antibiotic resistance leads to longer hospital stays, higher medical costs, and increased mortality. However, research into the relationship between climate change and antibiotic resistance remains inconclusive. This study aims to address the gap in the literature by exploring the association of antibiotic resistance with regional ambient temperature and its changes over time.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Antimicrobial Surveillance Network (CHINET), monitoring the prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB), Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA) in 28 provinces/regions over the period from 2005 to 2019. Log-linear regression models were established to determine the association between ambient temperature and antibiotic resistance after adjustment for variations in socioeconomic, health service, and environmental factors.

Findings

A 1 °C increase in average ambient temperature was associated with 1.14-fold increase (95%-CI [1.07–1.23]) in CRKP prevalence and 1.06-fold increase (95%-CI [1.03–1.08]) in CRPA prevalence. There was an accumulative effect of year-by-year changes in ambient temperature, with the four-year sum showing the greatest effect on antibiotic resistance. Higher prevalence of antibiotic resistance was also associated with higher antibiotic consumption, lower density of health facilities, higher density of hospital beds and higher level of corruption.

Interpretation

Higher prevalence of antibiotic resistance is associated with increased regional ambient temperature. The development of antibiotic resistance under rising ambient temperature differs across various strains of bacteria.

Funding

The 10.13039/501100012166National Key R&D Program of China (grant number: 2018YFA0606200), 10.13039/501100001809National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 72074234), 10.13039/501100012476Fundamental Scientific Research Funds for Central Universities, P.R. China (grant number: 22qntd4201), 10.13039/100001547China Medical Board (grant number: CMB-OC-19-337).

Antibiotic Use in China’s Public Healthcare Institutions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Nationwide Procurement Data, 2018–2020

Background: The overuse of antibiotics is a serious public health problem and a major challenge in China, and China lacks up-to-date evidence on the nationwide antibiotic use in different healthcare settings. The changes of China’s antibiotic use under the COVID-19 pandemic are still unknown.

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the use of antibiotics in China’s public medical institutions based on a three-year nationwide surveillance and to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s antibiotic consumption.

Methods: This study used nationwide drug procurement data from the China Drug Supply Information Platform (CDSIP). We retrospectively analyzed antibiotic procurement data of 9,176 hospitals and 39,029 primary healthcare centers (PHCs) from 31 provinces in mainland China from January 2018 to December 2020. Antibiotic utilization was measured by defined daily doses (DDDs) and DDD per 1,000 inhabitants per day (DID). Generalized linear regression models were established to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antibiotic use.

Results: The total antibiotic consumption among all healthcare settings increased from 12.94 DID in 2018 to 14.45 DID in 2019, and then dropped to 10.51 DID in 2020. More than half of antibiotics were consumed in PHCs, especially in central regions (59%–68%). The use of penicillins (J01C) and cephalosporins (J01D) accounted for 32.02% and 28.86% of total antibiotic consumption in 2020. During 2018–2020, parenteral antibiotics accounted for 31%–36% of total antibiotic consumption; the proportion is more prominent in central and western regions and the setting of hospitals. Access category antibiotics comprised 40%–42% of the total utilization. Affected by COVID-19, the antibiotic consumption was significantly dropped both in hospitals (β = −.11, p < .001) and PHCs (β = −.17, p < .001), as well as in total (β = −.14, p < .001). Significant increments were observed in the proportion of total antibiotics (β = .02, p = .024) consumed in hospitals (against the consumption in all healthcare settings), as well as parenteral antibiotics (β = 1.73, p = .001).

Conclusion: The consistent preferred use of penicillin and cephalosporin, as well as injections, among China’s public healthcare institutions should draw concern. China’s antibiotic consumption significantly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, which brings opportunities for antibiotic use management in China.

Contribution of Governance and Socioeconomic Factors to the P. aeruginosa MDR in Europe

This work aims to explain the behavior of the multi-drug resistance (MDR) percentage of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Europe, through multivariate statistical analysis and machine learning validation, using data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System, the World Health Organization, and the World Bank. We ran a multidimensional data panel regression analysis and used machine learning techniques to validate a pooling panel data case. The results of our analysis showed that the most important variables explaining the MDR phenomena across European countries are governance variables, such as corruption control and the rule of law. The models proposed in this study showed the complexity of the antibiotic drugs resistance problem. The efforts controlling MDR P. aeruginosa, as a well-known Healthcare-Associated Infection (HCAI), should be focused on solving national governance problems that impact resource distribution, in addition to individual guidelines, such as promoting the appropriate use of antibiotics.