Spatial and Temporal Variations of Compound Droughts and Hot Extremes in China

The severity of dry and hot climate extremes and their related impacts on vegetation in Madagascar

Madagascar is a low-income country, highly vulnerable to natural disasters affecting the small-scale subsistence farming system. Recently, climate change and environmental degradation have contributed to an intensification of food insecurity. We aim to monitor the link between dry and hot extremes on vegetation conditions, separated or concurrently, using satellite data, such as LST, ET, ET0, and FAPAR products from SEVIRI/MSG disseminated by LSASAF-EUMETSAT. The analysis was made for a long record from 2004 to 2021, focusing on the extreme seasons of 2020 and 2021. Results highlight the higher impact of combined dry and hot events when compared with isolated events, with a strong response of vegetation in the southern part of Madagascar. Results point to the added value of using the recent data records from geostationary satellites with high temporal resolution and updated in near real-time, to early detect, monitor, and characterize the impact of climate extremes on vegetation dynamics.

Compound drought and heat waves variation and association with SST modes across China

Compound drought and heatwaves (CDH) have garnered increasing attention because concurrent extreme events can exacerbate the harmful impacts caused by univariate extremes. However, various severities in CDH events and their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) variations in China remain little understood. Here, we accurately identify CDH events and multi-aspect of characteristics using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the excess heat factor (EHF) during the extended summer (May-September) of 1961-2017. The evolution of multifaceted characteristics of CDH and their association with SST variation are further explored. The results suggest that the number, frequency, duration and intensity of regional CDH events show heterogeneous spatial patterns, with a significant increasing trend. A consistent abrupt transition in CDH characteristics averaged over China occurred in the period of 1993-1996. Mild and moderate CDHs occur more commonly in Northwest and North China, whereas severe CDHs are mainly found in central and eastern regions. Mild and moderate CDHs are more susceptible to SST modes than severe CDH, and there are strong positive correlations between mild and moderate CDH characteristics and SST variations in the northwest and northern regions. Compared to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant role in the intensifications of mild and moderate CDH events. Regionally, the northwest and north have experienced longer, more frequent and severe CDH events during the positive phase of IOD. These findings reveal the divergent evolutions in CDH characteristics with various severities and inconsistent impacts of different SST modes on the compound events.

Population exposure to compound extreme events in India under different emission and population scenarios

It is well understood that India is largely exposed to different climate extremes including floods, droughts, heat waves, among others. However, the exposure of co-occurrence of these events is still unknown. The present analysis, first study of its kind, provides the projected changeability of five different compound extremes under three different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These changes are combined with population projection under SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios to examine the total exposure in terms of number of persons exposed during 2021-2060 (T1) and 2061-2100 (T2). Here, the outputs from thirteen GCMs are used under CMIP6 experiment. The findings from the study show that all the compound extremes are expected to increase in future under all the emission scenarios being greater in case of SSP5-8.5. The population exposure is highest (2.51- to 4.96-fold as compared to historical) under SSP3-7.0 scenario (2021-2100 i.e., T1 and T2) in case of coincident heat waves and droughts compound extreme. The total exposure in Central Northeast India is projected to be the highest while Hilly Regions are likely to have the lowest exposure in future. The increase in the exposure is mainly contributed from climate change, population growth and their interaction depending on different kinds of compound extremes. The findings would help in devising sustainable policy strategies to climate mitigation and adaptation.

Diverging Responses of Two Subtropical Tree Species (Schima superba and Cunninghamia lanceolata) to Heat Waves

The frequency and intensity of heat waves (HWs) has increased in subtropical regions in recent years. The mechanism underlying the HW response of subtropical trees remains unclear. In this study, we conducted an experiment with broad-leaved Schima superba (S. superba) and coniferous Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata) seedlings to examine HW (5-day long) effects on stem water transport, leaf water use efficiency (WUE), morphology and growth, and to elucidate differences in the responses of both species. Our results indicated that HWs can significantly reduce hydraulic conductivity in both species. C. lanceolata experienced significant xylem embolism, with the percentage loss of conductivity (PLC) increasing by 40%, while S. superba showed a non-significant increase in PLC (+25%). Furthermore, HW also caused a reduction in photosynthesis rates (An), but transpiration rates (Tr) increased on the 5th day of the HW, together leading to a significant decrease in leaf WUE. From diurnal dynamics, we observed that the HW caused significant decrease of S. superba An only in the morning, but nearly the all day for C. lanceolata. During the morning, with a high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) environment, the HW increased Tr, which contributed a lot to latently cooling the foliage. In comparing the two tree species, we found that HW effects on S. superba were mostly short-term, with leaf senescence but limited or no xylem embolism. The surviving S. superba recovered rapidly, forming new branches and leaves, aided by their extensive root systems. For C. lanceolata, continued seedling growth initially but with subsequent xylem embolism and withering of shoots, led to stunted recovery and regrowth. In conclusion, apart from the direct thermal impacts caused by HW, drought stress was the main cause of significant negative effects on plant water transport and the photosynthetic system. Furthermore, S. superba and C. lanceolata showed clearly different responses to HW, which implies that the response mechanisms of broad-leaved and coniferous tree species to climate change can differ.

Weather and Climate Extremes: Current Developments

An increasing number of extreme events have been observed around the world over the past few decades, some of them attributed to global warming [...]

Compound Droughts and Heat Waves in China

Droughts and heat waves both are natural extreme climate events occurring in most parts of the world. To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of droughts and heat waves in China, we examine changes in droughts, heat waves, and the compound of both during 1961–2017 based on high resolution gridded monthly sc_PDSI and daily temperature data. Results show that North China and Northwest China are the two regions that experience the most frequent droughts, while Central China is the least drought-affected region. Significant drought decreasing trends were mostly observed Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet provinces, while the belt region between Yunnan and Heilongjiang provinces experienced significant drought increasing trends. Heat waves occur more frequently than droughts, and the increase of heat wave occurrence is also more obvious. The increasing of heat wave occurrence since the 2000s has been unprecedented. The compound droughts and heat waves were mild from the 1960s to 1980s, and began to increase in 1990s. Furthermore, the significant increasing trends of the percentage of compound droughts and heat waves to droughts are observed in entire China, and more than 90% drought occurrences are accompanied by one or more heat waves in the 2010s. The results highlight the increased percentage of compound droughts and heat waves and call for improved efforts on assessing the impact of compound extremes, especially in an era of changing climate.