Review of Biometeorology of Heatwaves and Warm Extremes in Europe

Identifying heat thresholds for South Africa towards the development of a heat-health warning system

Exposure to heatwaves may result in adverse human health impacts. Heat alerts in South Africa are currently based on defined temperature-fixed threshold values for large towns and cities. However, heat-health warning systems (HHWS) should incorporate metrics that have been shown to be effective predictors of negative heat-related health outcomes. This study contributes to the development of a HHWS for South Africa that can potentially minimize heat-related mortality. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the association between maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) and population-adjusted mortality during summer months, and the effects were presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). District-level thresholds for the best predictor from these three metrics were estimated with threshold regression. The mortality dataset contained records of daily registered deaths (n = 8,476,532) from 1997 to 2013 and data for the temperature indices were for the same period. Maximum temperature appeared to be the most statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality with strong associations observed in 40 out of 52 districts. Maximum temperature was associated with increased risk of mortality in all but three of the districts. Our results also found that heat-related mortality was influenced by regional climate because the spatial distribution of the thresholds varied according to the climate zones across the country. On average, districts located in the hot, arid interior provinces of the Northern Cape and North West experienced some of the highest thresholds compared to districts located in temperate interior or coastal provinces. As the effects of climate change become more significant, population exposure to heat is increasing. Therefore, evidence-based HHWS are required to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity. The exceedance of the maximum temperature thresholds provided in this study could be used to issue heat alerts as part of effective heat health action plans.

Proline Enhances Resistance and Recovery of Oilseed Rape after a Simulated Prolonged Drought

This study was carried out to evaluate the effect of exogenous proline on the growth, biochemical responses, and plant recovery of drought-stressed oilseed rape plants after renewed irrigation. The experiment was conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. After 21 days of cultivation, 3-4 leaf stage seedlings were sprayed with proline (1 mM), then subjected to prolonged drought stress for 8 days to achieve a severe water deficit, next, irrigation was resumed and recovery was assessed after 4 days. The results show that exogenous application of proline reduced the drought-induced growth inhibition of seedlings while maintaining relative water content (RWC) and growth parameters closer to those of irrigated plants. Proline had a positive effect on chlorophyll accumulation and membrane permeability while decreasing ethylene, H₂O₂, and MDA levels. Moreover, after 4 days of recovery, the H₂O₂ content of the proline-treated plants was significantly lower (2-fold) and the MDA content was close to that of continuously irrigated plants. Thus, all these biochemical reactions influenced plant survival: after drought + proline treatment, the number of surviving plants was two times higher than that of drought-treated plants. The findings show that exogenous proline has antioxidant, osmotic, and growth-promoting properties that improve the drought tolerance of winter oilseed rape plants and is, therefore, beneficial for drought adaptation in oilseed rape.

Forest structure and composition alleviate human thermal stress

Current climate change aggravates human health hazards posed by heat stress. Forests can locally mitigate this by acting as strong thermal buffers, yet potential mediation by forest ecological characteristics remains underexplored. We report over 14 months of hourly microclimate data from 131 forest plots across four European countries and compare these to open-field controls using physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) to reflect human thermal perception. Forests slightly tempered cold extremes, but the strongest buffering occurred under very hot conditions (PET >35°C), where forests reduced strong to extreme heat stress day occurrence by 84.1%. Mature forests cooled the microclimate by 12.1 to 14.5°C PET under, respectively, strong and extreme heat stress conditions. Even young plantations reduced those conditions by 10°C PET. Forest structure strongly modulated the buffering capacity, which was enhanced by increasing stand density, canopy height and canopy closure. Tree species composition had a more modest yet significant influence: that is, strongly shade-casting, small-leaved evergreen species amplified cooling. Tree diversity had little direct influences, though indirect effects through stand structure remain possible. Forests in general, both young and mature, are thus strong thermal stress reducers, but their cooling potential can be even further amplified, given targeted (urban) forest management that considers these new insights.

Detailed Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin

Estimation of rainfall erosivity (RE) and erosivity density (ED) is essential for understanding the complex relationships between hydrological and soil erosion processes. The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal trends and variability of the RE and ED in the central and southern Pannonian Basin by using station observations and gridded datasets. To assess RE and ED, precipitation data for 14 meteorological stations, 225 grid points. and an erosion model consisting of daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall for the period of 1961–2014 were used. Annual RE and ED based on station data match spatially variable patterns of precipitation, with higher values in the southwest (2100 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and southeast (1650 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) of the study area, but minimal values in the northern part (700 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1). On the other hand, gridded datasets display more detailed RE and ED spatial–temporal variability, with the values ranging from 250 to 2800 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1. The identified trends are showing increasing values of RE (ranging between 0.20 and 21.17 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (ranging between 0.01 and 0.03 MJ·ha−1·h−1) at the annual level. This tendency is also observed for autumn RE (from 5.55 to 0.37 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.05 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), as for spring RE (from 1.00 to 0.01 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.04 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), due to the influence of the large-scale processes of climate variability, with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being the most prominent. These increases may cause a transition to a higher erosive class in the future, thus raising concerns about this type of hydro-meteorological hazard in this part of the Pannonian Basin. The present analysis identifies seasons and places of greatest erosion risk, which is the starting point for implementing suitable mitigation measures at local to regional scales.

Evolving heat waves characteristics challenge heat warning systems and prevention plans

This paper analyses how recent trends in heat waves impact heat warning systems. We performed a retrospective analysis of the challenges faced by the French heat prevention plan since 2004. We described trends based on the environmental and health data collected each summer by the French heat warning system and prevention plan. Major evolutions of the system were tracked based on the evaluations organized each autumn with the stakeholders of the prevention plan. Excess deaths numbering 8000 were observed during heat waves between 2004 and 2019, 71% of these between 2015 and 2019. We observed major changes in the characteristics, frequency and the geographical spread of heat waves since 2015. Feedbacks led to several updates of the warning system such as the extension of the surveillance period. They also revealed that risk perception remained limited among the population and the stakeholders. The sharp increase in the number of heat warnings issued per year since 2015 challenges the acceptability of the heat warnings. Recent heat waves without historical equivalent interfere with the development of evidence-based prevention strategies. The growing public health impacts heat waves emphasize the urgent need to act to adapt the population, at different levels of intervention, from individual comportments to structural modifications. A specific attention should be given to increase the resources allocated to the evaluation and the management of heat-related risks, especially considering the needs to catch with the rapid rhythm of the changing climate.

Present and future projections of heatwave hazard-risk over India: A regional earth system model assessment

The heatwave is a disastrous hazard having significant impacts on health and society. This study analyses the heatwave hazards and risk for India's current and future scenarios using socioeconomic vulnerability and temperature datasets during the summer (April-June) season. The Census of India (CoI) 2011 datasets were considered to assess current vulnerability and projected from the SocioEconomic Data And Application Center (SEDAC) population at Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4 for future vulnerability. Whereas IMD temperature data used for hazard assessment for the present scenario (1958-2005) while projected temperature data from regional earth system model REMO-OASIS-MPIOM (ROM) were used for the future (2006-2099) scenario. The study exhibited the most hazardous, vulnerable, and risk-prone regions identified as the south-eastern coast and Indo-Gangetic plains and some populous districts with metropolitan regions (Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata) under the current scenario. The coupled model ROM has efficiently captured the critical districts with higher and lower risk, showing its future projection capability. The study highlighted that the heatwave hazard-risk would significantly worsen in future scenarios in all districts under enhanced global warming and largely affecting the districts in the eastern and middle Indo-Gangetic plains and Malabar region. The present study will provide sufficient insights into designing mitigation strategies and future adaptive planning for the heatwave risk, which is one of the targets under Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Goal 13: Climate Action).

Leaf Shedding and Non-Stomatal Limitations of Photosynthesis Mitigate Hydraulic Conductance Losses in Scots Pine Saplings During Severe Drought Stress

During drought, trees reduce water loss and hydraulic failure by closing their stomata, which also limits photosynthesis. Under severe drought stress, other acclimation mechanisms are trigged to further reduce transpiration to prevent irreversible conductance loss. Here, we investigate two of them: the reversible impacts on the photosynthetic apparatus, lumped as non-stomatal limitations (NSL) of photosynthesis, and the irreversible effect of premature leaf shedding. We integrate NSL and leaf shedding with a state-of-the-art tree hydraulic simulation model (SOX+) and parameterize them with example field measurements to demonstrate the stress-mitigating impact of these processes. We measured xylem vulnerability, transpiration, and leaf litter fall dynamics in Pinus sylvestris (L.) saplings grown for 54 days under severe dry-down. The observations showed that, once transpiration stopped, the rate of leaf shedding strongly increased until about 30% of leaf area was lost on average. We trained the SOX+ model with the observations and simulated changes in root-to-canopy conductance with and without including NSL and leaf shedding. Accounting for NSL improved model representation of transpiration, while model projections about root-to-canopy conductance loss were reduced by an overall 6%. Together, NSL and observed leaf shedding reduced projected losses in conductance by about 13%. In summary, the results highlight the importance of other than purely stomatal conductance-driven adjustments of drought resistance in Scots pine. Accounting for acclimation responses to drought, such as morphological (leaf shedding) and physiological (NSL) adjustments, has the potential to improve tree hydraulic simulation models, particularly when applied in predicting drought-induced tree mortality.

Assessment of Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Serbia’s Urban Environments during Different Seasons

The urban microclimate is gradually changing due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, urbanization, and the heat island effect. In such an altered environment, outdoor thermal comfort can have a strong impact on public health and quality of life in urban areas. In this study, three main urban areas in Serbia were selected: Belgrade (Central Serbia), Novi Sad (Northern Serbia), and Niš (Southern Serbia). The focus was on the temporal assessment of OTC, using the UTCI over a period of 20 years (1999–2018) during different seasons. The main aim is the general estimation of the OTC of Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš, in order to gain better insight into the bioclimatic condition, current trends and anomalies that have occurred. The analysis was conducted based on an hourly (7 h, 14 h, and 21 h CET) and “day by day” meteorological data set. Findings show the presence of a growing trend in seasonal UTCI anomalies, especially during summer and spring. In addition, there is a notable increase in the number of days above the defined UTCI thresholds for each season. Average annual UTCIs values also show a positive, rising trend, ranging from 0.50 °C to 1.33 °C. The most significant deviations from the average UTCI values, both seasonal and annual, were recorded in 2000, 2007, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2018.

Evaluation of Tourism-Climate Conditions in the Region of Kłodzko Land (Poland)

Kłodzko Land is one of the most important regions of Poland in terms of tourism and health issues. Numerous tourism attractions and health resorts make the region attractive for both tourist and bathers. The goal of this paper was to evaluate the impact of weather conditions on tourism-related conditions and their changes in the multiannual period. In the analysis, the indices of heat days, the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) and CTIS (Climate Tourism Information Scheme) tools were used. The research on heat days and the UTCI indicated a significant increase in the heat-stress frequency over the last decades. Simultaneously, the number of weather types related to cold stress has considerably decreased. Such trends were noticed in the entire region, in all the considered hypsometric zones. The rising tendency was also observed for strong and very strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 °C), which negatively affects health problems. The analysis showed that the most extreme thermal and biothermal conditions, in terms of heat stress, occur under southern and eastern anticyclonic circulation. The CTIS analysis showed that favorable weather conditions for most of tourism activities are noticed in the warm half-year. The usefulness of weather conditions for tourism can vary depending on atmospheric circulation.