Transmission Risk Prediction and Evaluation of Mountain-Type Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis in China Based on Climatic and Environmental Variables

Re-emergence and influencing factors of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis in the extension region of Loess Plateau, China

OBJECTIVE

To understand the epidemiological distribution characteristics of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, China, from 2006 to 2021, to explore the influencing factors leading to the re-emergence of the epidemic, and to provide a basis for the formulation of targeted control strategies.

METHODS

Case information spanning from 2006 to 2021 in Yangquan City was collected for a retrospective case-control study conducted from June to September 2022. A 1:3 matched ratio was employed. A questionnaire was utilized to gather data on basic information, demographic characteristics, awareness of MT-ZVL knowledge, residence, and dog breeding and living habits. The study employed a multifactorial conditional stepwise logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors.

RESULTS

A total of 508 subjects was analyzed. Risk factors for MT-ZVL included the use of soil/stone/concrete as building materials (OR = 3.932), presence of nearby empty/stone stack houses (OR = 2.515), dog breeding (OR = 4.215), presence of stray dogs (OR = 2.767), and neighbor's dog breeding (OR = 1.953). Protective factors comprised knowledge of MT-ZVL (OR = 0.113) and using mosquito repellents (OR = 0.388). The findings indicate significant associations between environmental and behavioral factors and MT-ZVL incidence in Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, China, from 2006 to 2021. These results underscore the importance of public awareness campaigns and targeted interventions aimed at reducing exposure to risk factors and promoting protective measures to mitigate the re-emergence of MT-ZVL outbreaks.

CONCLUSION

House building materials, presence of neighboring empty houses, breeding domestic dogs and distribution of stray dogs surrounding the home are risk factors for MT-ZVL. Awareness of MT-ZVL and implementation of preventive measures during outdoor activities in summer and autumn are protective and may reduce the risk of MT-ZVL.

Establishment of an indicator framework for the transmission risk of the mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis based on the Delphi-entropy weight method

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is one of the most important neglected tropical diseases. Although VL was controlled in several regions of China during the last century, the mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) has reemerged in the hilly areas of China in recent decades. The purpose of this study was to construct an indicator framework for assessing the risk of the MT-ZVL in China, and to provide guidance for preventing disease.

METHODS

Based on a literature review and expert interview, a 3-level indicator framework was initially established in November 2021, and 28 experts were selected to perform two rounds of consultation using the Delphi method. The comprehensive weight of the tertiary indicators was determined by the Delphi and the entropy weight methods.

RESULTS

Two rounds of Delphi consultation were conducted. Four primary indicators, 11 secondary indicators, and 35 tertiary indicators were identified. The Delphi-entropy weight method was performed to calculate the comprehensive weight of the tertiary indicators. The normalized weights of the primary indicators were 0.268, 0.261, 0.242, and 0.229, respectively, for biological factors, interventions, environmental factors, and social factors. The normalized weights of the top four secondary indicators were 0.122, 0.120, 0.098, and 0.096, respectively, for climatic features, geographical features, sandflies, and dogs. Among the tertiary indicators, the top four normalized comprehensive weights were the population density of sandflies (0.076), topography (0.057), the population density of dogs, including tethering (0.056), and use of bed nets or other protective measures (0.056).

CONCLUSIONS

An indicator framework of transmission risk assessment for MT-ZVL was established using the Delphi-entropy weight method. The framework provides a practical tool to evaluate transmission risk in endemic areas.