Phylogeography and Re-Evaluation of Evolutionary Rate of Powassan Virus Using Complete Genome Data

The known unknowns of Powassan virus ecology

Powassan virus (POWV; Family: Flaviviridae, Genus: Flavivirus) is the sole North American member of the tick-borne encephalitis sero-complex. While associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, POWV has historically been of little public health concern due to low incidence rates. However, over the last 20 yr, incidence rates have increased highlighting the growing epidemiological threat. Currently, there are no vaccines or therapeutics with tick habitat reduction, acaricide application, and public awareness programs being our primary means of intervention. The effectiveness of these control strategies is dependent on having a sound understanding of the virus's ecology. In this Forum, we review what is currently known about POWV ecology, identify gaps in our knowledge, and discuss prevailing and alternative hypotheses about transmission dynamics, reservoir hosts, and spatial focality.

Inferring Evolutionary Timescale of Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever Virus

Until 2020, there were only three original complete genome (CG) nucleotide sequences of Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (OHFV) in GenBank. For this reason, the evolutionary rate and divergence time assessments reported in the literature were based on the E gene sequences, but notably without temporal signal evaluation, such that their reliability is unclear. As of July 2022, 47 OHFV CG sequences have been published, which enables testing of temporal signal in the data and inferring unbiased and reliable substitution rate and divergence time values. Regression analysis in the TempEst software demonstrated a stronger clocklike behavior in OHFV samples for the complete open reading frame (ORF) data set (R² = 0.42) than for the E gene data set (R² = 0.11). Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal indicated very strong evidence, with a log Bayes factor of more than 5, in favor of temporal signal in all data sets. Our results based on the complete ORF sequences showed a more precise OHFV substitution rate (95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 9.1 × 10^-5-1.8 × 10^-4 substitutions per site per year) and tree root height (416-896 years ago) compared with previous assessments. The rate obtained is significantly higher than tick-borne encephalitis virus by at least 3.8-fold. The phylogenetic analysis and past population dynamics reconstruction revealed the declining trend of OHFV genetic diversity, but there was phylogenomic evidence that implicit virus subpopulations evolved locally and underwent an exponential growth phase.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of the emergence and spread of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States

Powassan virus is an emerging tick-borne virus of concern for public health, but very little is known about its transmission patterns and ecology. Here, we expanded the genomic dataset by sequencing 279 Powassan viruses isolated from Ixodes scapularis ticks from the northeastern United States. Our phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that Powassan virus lineage II was likely introduced or emerged from a relict population in the Northeast between 1940 and 1975. Sequences strongly clustered by sampling location, suggesting a highly focal geographical distribution. Our analyses further indicated that Powassan virus lineage II emerged in the northeastern United States mostly following a south-to-north pattern, with a weighted lineage dispersal velocity of ~3 km/y. Since the emergence in the Northeast, we found an overall increase in the effective population size of Powassan virus lineage II, but with growth stagnating during recent years. The cascading effect of population expansion of white-tailed deer and I. scapularis populations likely facilitated the emergence of Powassan virus in the northeastern United States.

Dates and Rates of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-The Slowest Changing Tick-Borne Flavivirus

We evaluated the temporal signal and substitution rate of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) using 276 complete open reading frame (ORF) sequences with known collection dates. According to a permutation test, the TBEV Siberian subtype (TBEV-S) data set has no temporal structure and cannot be applied for substitution rate estimation without other TBEV subtypes. The substitution rate obtained suggests that the common clade of TBEV (TBEV-common), including all TBEV subtypes and louping-ill virus (LIV), is characterized by the lowest rate (1.87 × 10^-5 substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 4.9 years; 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 1.3-2.4 × 10^-5 s/s/y) among all tick-borne flaviviruses previously assessed. Within TBEV-common, the TBEV European subtype (TBEV-E) has the lowest substitution rate (1.3 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 7.5 years; 95% HPD, 1.0-1.8 × 10^-5 s/s/y) as compared with TBEV Far-Eastern subtype (3.0 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 3.2 years; 95% HPD, 1.6-4.5 × 10^-5 s/s/y). TBEV-common representing the species tick-borne encephalitis virus diverged 9623 years ago (95% HPD interval, 6373-13,208 years). The TBEV Baikalian subtype is the youngest one (489 years; 95% HPD, 291-697 years) which differs significantly by age from TBEV-E (848 years; 95% HPD, 596-1112 years), LIV (2424 years; 95% HPD, 1572-3400 years), TBEV-FE (1936 years, 95% HPD, 1344-2598 years), and the joint clade of TBEV-S (2505 years, 95% HPD, 1700-3421 years) comprising Vasilchenko, Zausaev, and Baltic lineages.

Phylodynamics of deer tick virus in North America

The burden of ticks and the pathogens they carry is increasing worldwide. Powassan virus (POWV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus), the only known North American tick-borne flavivirus, is of particular concern due to rising cases and the severe morbidity of POWV encephalitis. Here, we use a multifaceted approach to evaluate the emergence of the II POWV lineage, known as deer tick virus (DTV), in parts of North America where human cases occur. We detected DTV-positive ticks from eight of twenty locations in the Northeast USA with an average infection rate of 1.4 per cent. High-depth, whole-genome sequencing of eighty-four POWV and DTV samples allowed us to assess geographic and temporal phylodynamics. We observed both stable infection in the Northeast USA and patterns of geographic dispersal within and between regions. A Bayesian skyline analysis demonstrated DTV population expansion over the last 50 years. This is concordant with the documented expansion of Ixodes scapularis tick populations and suggests an increasing risk of human exposure as the vector spreads. Finally, we isolated sixteen novel viruses in cell culture and demonstrated limited genetic change after passage, a valuable resource for future studies investigating this emerging virus.