Development and Validation of a Predictive Tool for Postpartum Hemorrhage after Vaginal Delivery: A Prospective Cohort Study

Development of antepartum risk prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage in Lagos, Nigeria: A prospective cohort study (Predict-PPH study)

OBJECTIVES

There is currently a limited ability to accurately identify women at risk of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). We conducted the "Predict-PPH" study to develop and evaluate an antepartum prediction model and its derived risk-scoring system.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of healthy pregnant women who registered and gave birth in five hospitals in Lagos, Nigeria, from January to June 2023. Maternal antepartum characteristics were compared between women with and without PPH. A predictive multivariable model was estimated using binary logistic regression with a backward stepwise approach eliminating variables when P was greater than 0.10. Statistically significant associations in the final model were reported when P was less than 0.05.

RESULTS

The prevalence of PPH in the enrolled cohort was 37.1%. Independent predictors of PPH such as maternal obesity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.47-4.26), maternal anemia (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.02-1.72), previous history of cesarean delivery (aOR 4.24, 95% CI 3.13-5.73), and previous PPH (aOR 2.65, 95% CI 1.07-6.56) were incorporated to develop a risk-scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the prediction model and risk scoring system was 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75).

CONCLUSION

We recorded a relatively high prevalence of PPH. Our model performance was satisfactory in identifying women at risk of PPH. Therefore, the derived risk-scoring system could be a useful tool to screen and identify pregnant women at risk of PPH during their routine antenatal assessment for birth preparedness and complication readiness.

Hemostatic biomarkers associated with postpartum hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a leading cause of maternal morbi-mortality. Although obstetric risk factors are well described, the impact of predelivery hematologic and hemostatic biomarkers remains incompletely understood. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarize the available literature on the association between predelivery hemostatic biomarkers and PPH/severe PPH. Searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases from inception to October 2022, we included observational studies on unselected pregnant women without bleeding disorder reporting on PPH and on predelivery hemostatic biomarkers. Two review authors independently performed title, abstract and full-text screening, upon which quantitative syntheses of studies reporting on the same hemostatic biomarker were conducted, calculating the mean difference (MD) between women with PPH/severe PPH and controls. A search on 18 October 2022 yielded 81 articles fitting our inclusion criteria. The heterogeneity between studies was considerable. With regard to PPH, the estimated average MD in the investigated biomarkers (platelets, fibrinogen, hemoglobin, Ddimer, activated partial thromboplastin time, and prothrombin time) were not statistically significant. Women who developed severe PPH had lower predelivery platelets than controls (MD = -26.0 109/L; 95% confidence interval, -35.8 to -16.1), whereas differences in predelivery fibrinogen concentration (MD = -0.31 g/L; 95% confidence interval, -0.75 to 0.13) and levels of factor XIII or hemoglobin were not statistically significant in women with and without severe PPH. Predelivery platelet counts were, on average, lower in women with severe PPH compared with controls, suggesting the potential usefulness of this biomarker for predicting severe PPH. This trial was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews as CRD42022368075.