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Waheed M, Haq SM, Arshad F, Vitasović-Kosić I, Bussmann RW, Hashem A, Abd-Allah EF. Xanthium strumarium L., an invasive species in the subtropics: prediction of potential distribution areas and climate adaptability in Pakistan. BMC Ecol Evol 2024; 24:124. [PMID: 39390368 PMCID: PMC11465908 DOI: 10.1186/s12862-024-02310-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2024] [Accepted: 09/20/2024] [Indexed: 10/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Invasive species such as Xanthium strumarium L., can disrupt ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and degrade pastures, leading to economic losses and jeopardizing food security and biodiversity. To address the challenges posed by invasive species such as X. strumarium, this study uses species distribution modeling (SDM) to map its potential distribution in Pakistan and assess how it might respond to climate change. This addresses the urgent need for proactive conservation and management strategies amidst escalating ecological threats. SDM forecasts a species' potential dispersion across various geographies in both space and time by correlating known species occurrences to environmental variables. SDMs have the potential to help address the challenges posed by invasive species by predicting the future habitat suitability of species distributions and identifying the environmental factors influencing these distributions. Our study shows that seasonal temperature dependence, mean temperature of wettest quarter and total nitrogen content of soil are important climatic factors influencing habitat suitability of X. strumarium. The potential habitat of this invasive species is likely to expand beyond the areas it currently colonizes, with a notable presence in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to threats to agriculture and biodiversity. Under current conditions, an estimated 21% of Pakistan's land area is infested by X. strumarium, mainly in upper Punjab, central Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The range is expected to expand in most regions except Sindh. The central and northeastern parts of the country are proving to be particularly suitable habitats for X. strumarium. Effective strategies are crucial to contain the spread of X. strumarium. The MaxEnt modeling approach generates invasion risk maps by identifying potential risk zones based on a species' climate adaptability. These maps can aid in early detection, allowing authorities to prioritize surveillance and management strategies for controlling the spread of invasive species in suitable habitats. However, further research is recommended to understand the adaptability of species to unexplored environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Waheed
- Department of Botany, University of Okara, Okara, 56300, Pakistan.
| | - Sheikh Marifatul Haq
- Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Fahim Arshad
- Department of Botany, University of Okara, Okara, 56300, Pakistan
| | - Ivana Vitasović-Kosić
- Faculty of Agriculture, Division of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Department of Agricultural Botany, University of Zagreb, Svetošimunska cesta 25, Zagreb, 10000, Croatia
| | - Rainer W Bussmann
- Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
- Department of Botany, State Museum of Natural History, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Abeer Hashem
- Botany and Microbiology Department, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box. 2460, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia
| | - Elsayed Fathi Abd-Allah
- Plant Production Department, College of Food and Agricultural Sciences, King Saud University, P.O. Box. 2460, Riyadh, 11451, Saudi Arabia
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Zheng H, Mao X, Lin Y, Fu K, Qi Z, Wu Y. Reconstructing the biological invasion of noxious invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus and invasion risk assessment in China. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1430576. [PMID: 39363921 PMCID: PMC11446801 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1430576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2024] [Accepted: 08/30/2024] [Indexed: 10/05/2024]
Abstract
Invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a severe threat to native ecosystems and biodiversity. Comprehending the potential distribution patterns of these plant invaders and their responses to climate change is essential. Parthenium hysterophorus, native to the Americas, has become an aggressively invasive species since its introduction to China in the 1930s. This study aims to collect and reconstruct the historical occurrence and invasion of P. hysterophorus. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the potential geographical distributions of P. hysterophorus were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and the invasion risk of P. hysterophorus in Chinese cities, croplands, forests, and grasslands was assessed. The results show that: (1) The species initially invaded highly suitable areas and further spread to regions with non-analogous climate conditions. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the overall potential distribution of P. hysterophorus is characterized by more in the southeast and less in the northwest. Climate variables, including mean annual temperature (bio1), precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the primary factors influencing its distribution. (3) The potential distribution of P. hysterophorus will expand further under future climate scenarios, particularly toward higher latitudes. (4) Forests and crop lands are the areas with the most serious potential invasion risk of P. hysterophorus. Therefore, we suggest that the government should strengthen the monitoring and management of P. hysterophorus to prevent its spread and protect agro-ecosystems and human habitats. Depending on the potential risk areas, measures such as quarantine, removal, and publicity should be taken to mitigate the threat of P. hysterophorus invasion and to raise awareness of P. hysterophorus invasion prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huisen Zheng
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xinjie Mao
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yi Lin
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Keyi Fu
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zanyi Qi
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yongbin Wu
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China
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Ran W, Chen J, Zhao Y, Zhang N, Luo G, Zhao Z, Song Y. Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70003. [PMID: 39026963 PMCID: PMC11257772 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Ran
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Jiajia Chen
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Yuanqi Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Ni Zhang
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Guimei Luo
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Zhibing Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
- School of Food Science and EngineeringGuiyang UniversityGuiyangChina
| | - Yuehua Song
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
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Lal R, Chauhan S, Kaur A, Jaryan V, Kohli RK, Singh R, Singh HP, Kaur S, Batish DR. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Range Expansion of the Invasive Straggler Daisy ( Calyptocarpus vialis) in the Northwestern Indian Himalayan Region. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 13:68. [PMID: 38202376 PMCID: PMC10780488 DOI: 10.3390/plants13010068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Human-induced climate change modifies plant species distribution, reorganizing ecologically suitable habitats for invasive species. In this study, we identified the environmental factors that are important for the spread of Calyptocarpus vialis, an emerging invasive weed in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), along with possible habitats of the weed under current climatic scenarios and potential range expansion under several representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt niche modeling. The prediction had a high AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.894 ± 0.010 and a remarkable correlation between the test and expected omission rates. BIO15 (precipitation seasonality; 38.8%) and BIO1 (annual mean temperature; 35.7%) had the greatest impact on the probable distribution of C. vialis, followed by elevation (11.7%) and landcover (6.3%). The findings show that, unlike the current situation, "high" and "very high" suitability areas would rise while less-suited habitats would disappear. All RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) indicate the expansion of C. vialis in "high" suitability areas, but RCP 4.5 predicts contraction, and RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 predict expansion in "very high" probability areas. The current distribution of C. vialis is 21.59% of the total area of the state, with "medium" to "high" invasion suitability, but under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it might grow by 10% by 2070. The study also reveals that C. vialis may expand its niche at both lower and higher elevations. This study clarifies how bioclimatic and topographic factors affect the dispersion of invasive species in the biodiverse IHR. Policymakers and land-use managers can utilize the data to monitor C. vialis hotspots and develop scientifically sound management methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roop Lal
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Saurav Chauhan
- Faculty of Basic Sciences, Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management Sciences, Solan 173229, Himachal Pradesh, India
| | - Amarpreet Kaur
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Vikrant Jaryan
- Department of Life Sciences, Allied Health Sciences & Agriculture Sciences, Sant Baba Bhag Singh University, Village Khiala, Padhiana, Jalandhar 144030, Punjab, India
| | | | - Rishikesh Singh
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
- Amity School of Earth and Environment Sciences, Amity University Punjab, Mohali 140306, Punjab, India
| | - Harminder P. Singh
- Department of Environment Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Shalinder Kaur
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
| | - Daizy R. Batish
- Department of Botany, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160014, India
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Guiquan S, Jiali F, Shuai G, Wenya H, Xiangkun K, Sheng Z, Yueling Z, Xuelian J. Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China. BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 2023; 23:592. [PMID: 38008724 PMCID: PMC10680213 DOI: 10.1186/s12870-023-04574-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. RESULTS January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations. CONCLUSIONS The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Song Guiquan
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Feng Jiali
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Gong Shuai
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Hao Wenya
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Kong Xiangkun
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Sheng
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Yueling
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Jiang Xuelian
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China.
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Poudel A, Adhikari P, Na CS, Wee J, Lee DH, Lee YH, Hong SH. Assessing the Potential Distribution of Oxalis latifolia, a Rapidly Spreading Weed, in East Asia under Global Climate Change. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:3254. [PMID: 37765421 PMCID: PMC10537521 DOI: 10.3390/plants12183254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Oxalis latifolia, a perennial herbaceous weed, is a highly invasive species that poses a threat to agricultural lands worldwide. East Asia is under a high risk of invasion of O. latifolia under global climate change. To evaluate this risk, we employed maximum entropy modeling considering two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, a small portion (8.02%) of East Asia is within the O. latifolia distribution, with the highest coverages in Chinese Taipei, China, and Japan (95.09%, 9.8%, and 0.24%, respectively). However, our projections indicated that this invasive weed will likely be introduced to South Korea and North Korea between 2041 and 2060 and 2081 and 2100, respectively. The species is expected to cover approximately 9.79% and 23.68% (SSP2-4.5) and 11.60% and 27.41% (SSP5-8.5) of the total land surface in East Asia by these time points, respectively. South Korea and Japan will be particularly susceptible, with O. latifolia potentially invading up to 80.73% of their territory by 2081-2100. Mongolia is projected to remain unaffected. This study underscores the urgent need for effective management strategies and careful planning to prevent the introduction and limit the expansion of O. latifolia in East Asian countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anil Poudel
- Department of Plant Resources and Landscape Architecture, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hankyong National University, Anseong 17579, Republic of Korea;
| | - Pradeep Adhikari
- Institute of Humanities and Ecology Consensus Resilience Lab, Hankyong National University, Anseong 17579, Republic of Korea;
| | - Chae Sun Na
- Wild Plant Seed Division, Baekdudaegan National Arboretum, Bong Hwa 36209, Republic of Korea;
| | - June Wee
- OJeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea;
| | - Do-Hun Lee
- National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Republic of Korea;
| | - Yong Ho Lee
- Institute of Humanities and Ecology Consensus Resilience Lab, Hankyong National University, Anseong 17579, Republic of Korea;
- OJeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea;
| | - Sun Hee Hong
- Department of Plant Resources and Landscape Architecture, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hankyong National University, Anseong 17579, Republic of Korea;
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Adhikari P, Lee YH, Poudel A, Hong SH, Park YS. Global spatial distribution of Chromolaena odorata habitat under climate change: random forest modeling of one of the 100 worst invasive alien species. Sci Rep 2023; 13:9745. [PMID: 37328479 PMCID: PMC10275895 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36358-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic activities and global climate change increase the risk of Chromolaena odorata invasion and habitat expansion. To predict its global distribution and habitat suitability under climate change, a random forest (RF) model was employed. The RF model, utilizing default parameters, analyzed species presence data and background information. The model revealed that the current spatial distribution of C. odorata covers 7,892,447 km2. Predictions for 2061- 2080 indicate expansion of suitable habitat (42.59 and 46.30%), reduction of suitable habit (12.92 and 12.20%), and preservation of suitable habitat (87.08 and 87.80%) under the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, in comparison to the present distribution. Currently, C. odorata is predominantly found in South America, with limited presence in other continents. However, the data suggest that climate change will elevate the global invasion risk of C. odorata worldwide, particularly in Oceania, Africa, and Australia. Countries such as Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Lesotho, which currently have unsuitable habitats, are predicted to have highly suitable habitats with climate change, supporting the idea that global habitat expansion for C. odorata will occur due to climate change. This study indicates that proper management of C. odorata is crucial during the early invasion phase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pradeep Adhikari
- Institute of Humanities and Ecology Consensus Resilience Lab, Hankyong National University, Anseong, 17579, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong Ho Lee
- Institute of Humanities and Ecology Consensus Resilience Lab, Hankyong National University, Anseong, 17579, Republic of Korea
- OJeong Resilience Institute, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Anil Poudel
- School of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hankyong National University, Anseong, 17579, Republic of Korea
| | - Sun Hee Hong
- School of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hankyong National University, Anseong, 17579, Republic of Korea.
| | - Yong-Soon Park
- Department of Plant Resources, College of Industrial Sciences, Kongju National University, Yesan, 32439, Republic of Korea.
- Agricultural and Fisheries Life Science Research Institute, College of Industrial Sciences, Kongju National University, Yesan, 32439, Republic of Korea.
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