Proposal of a New Prognostic Model for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer with TERT Promoter Mutations

Clinical, histological, and molecular differences in melanoma due to different TERT promoter mutations subtypes. A retrospective cross-sectional study in 684 melanoma patients

Differences in survival according to the pTERT mutation subtypes (-124C > T, -146C > T, and tandem -138_139CC > TT) have been observed. The present study aimed to describe the clinical as the histopathological and molecular cutaneous melanoma features according to the presence of the three most prevalent pTERT mutation subtypes (-124C > T, -146C > T, and tandem -138_139CC > TT). A retrospective cross-sectional study including 684 patients was designed, and a Partial Least-Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) was performed. After the PSL-DA, it was observed that the tandem -138_139CC > TT subtype differs from the other subtypes. The model demonstrated that the -124C > T and the -138_139 CC > TT subtypes were associated with fast-growing melanomas (OR 0.5, CI 0.29-0.86, p = .012) and with Breslow >2 mm (OR 0.6, CI 0.37-0.97, p = .037), compared to the -146C > T mutation. Finally, the -124C > T appeared to be more associated with the presence of TILs (non-brisk) than the -146C > T (OR 0.6, CI 0.40-1.01, p = .05). These findings confirmed that the -124C > T and the tandem -138_139 CC > TT subtypes are both highly associated with the presence of features of aggressiveness; however, only the -124C > T was highly associated with TILs. This difference could explain the worse survival rate associated with the tandem -138_139CC > TT mutations.

Age-associated mortality is partially mediated by TERT promoter mutation status in differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Age at diagnosis (AAD) and telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations are prognostic factors in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), and the prevalence of the mutations increases with AAD. Considering this correlation, we investigated whether an interaction between AAD and the mutations is present and whether the mutation mediates the effect of AAD on the mortality rate in DTC.

METHODS

The study included 393 patients with DTC who were followed-up after thyroidectomy at a single medical center in Korea from 1994 to 2004. Multivariable Cox regression was used to investigate the interaction of AAD and TERT promoter mutation. Mediation analysis was conducted using a regression-based causal mediation model.

RESULTS

The age-associated mortality rate increased progressively in all DTC patients and wild-type TERT group (WT-TERT) with a linear trend (p < 0.001) contrary to mutant TERT group (M-TERT) (p = 0.301). Kaplan-Meier curves declined progressively with increasing AAD in the entire group, but the change was without significance in M-TERT. The effect of AAD on mortality was not significant (adjusted HR: 1.07, 95% CI 0.38-3.05) in M-TERT. An interaction between AAD and TERT promoter mutation (p = 0.005) was found in a multivariable Cox regression. TERT promoter mutations mediated the effect of AAD on the mortality rate by 36% in DTC in a mediation analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the mediation of TERT promoter mutation on the effect of AAD on mortality, inclusion of TERT promoter mutation in a stage classification to achieve further individualized prediction in DTC is necessary.

Risk-stratified Distant Metastatic Thyroid Cancer with Clinicopathological Factors and BRAF/TERT Promoter Mutations

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prognostic value of clinicopathological factors as well as BRAF and TERT promoter mutations in predicting distant metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid cancer.

DESIGN

The status of BRAF and TERTp mutations were available in 1,208 thyroid cancer patients who received thyroidectomy at Jiangyuan Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu Institute of Nuclear Medicine from January 2008 to December 2021. Based on inclusion criteria, 99 distant metastasis thyroid cancers (DM-TCs) and 1055 patients without DM (Non-DM-TCs) were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

After univariate and multivariate analyses, a risk model was established for DM prediction based on factors: T3/T4 stage, lymph node metastasis (LNM) number over 5, and BRAF/TERT mutations (TLBT). It was defined based on the number of TLBT factors: low risk (no risk factor, n=896), intermediate risk (1 risk factor, n=199), and high risk (≥2 risk factors, n=59). Notably, compared with patients with low and intermediate risks, patients assigned to high TLBT risk have a shorter time of DM disease-free survival. Except for gene mutation, other factors were also included in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk guideline. Comparing with the ATA risk category, this risk model showed a better performance in predicting DM-TCs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes a TLBT risk classifier consisting of T3/T4 stages, LNM (n>5), and BRAF+TERTp mutations for predicting DM-TCs. TLBT risk stratification may help clinicians make personalized treatment management and follow-up strategies.

Nomogram individually predicts the risk for distant metastasis and prognosis value in female differentiated thyroid cancer patients: A SEER-based study

Objective

Distant metastasis (DM) is an important prognostic factor in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) and determines the course of treatment. This study aimed to establish a predictive nomogram model that could individually estimate the risk of DM and analyze the prognosis of female DTC patients (FDTCs).

Materials and methods

A total of 26,998 FDTCs were retrospectively searched from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2018 and randomly divided into validation and training cohorts. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to screen for prognostic factors and construct a prediction nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and a calibration curve. The overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were evaluated by Kaplan–Meier (K-M) analysis.

Results

A total of 263 (0.97%) FDTCs were reported to have DM. K-M analysis showed the association of multiple-organ metastases and brain involvement with lower survival rates (P &lt; 0.001) in patients. Tumor size, age at diagnosis, thyroidectomy, N1 stage, T3–4 stage, and pathological type were independent predictive factors of DM in FDTCs (all P &lt; 0.001). Similarly, age at diagnosis, Black, DM, T3–4 stage, thyroidectomy, and lung metastasis were determined as independent prognostic factors for FDTCs (all P &lt; 0.001). Several predictive nomograms were established based on the above factors. The C-index, AUC, and calibration curves demonstrated a good performance of these nomogram models.

Conclusion

Our study was successful in establishing and validating nomograms that could predict DM, as well as CSS and OS in individual patients with FDTC based on a large study cohort. These nomograms could enable surgeons to perform individualized survival evaluation and risk stratification for FDTCs.

Frequency of TERT Promoter Mutations in Real-World Analysis of 2,092 Thyroid Carcinoma Patients

BACKGRUOUND

Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations are associated with increased recurrence and mortality in patients with thyroid carcinoma. Previous studies on TERT promoter mutations were retrospectively conducted on a limited number of patients.

METHODS

We prospectively collected data on all consecutive patients who underwent thyroid carcinoma surgery between January 2019 and December 2020 at the Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. We included 2,092 patients with thyroid carcinoma.

RESULTS

Of 2,092 patients, 72 patients (3.4%) had TERT promoter mutations. However, the frequency of TERT promoter mutations was 0.5% in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) ≤1 cm and it was 5.8% in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) >1 cm. The frequency of TERT promoter mutations was significantly associated with older age at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR], 1.12; P<0.001), larger primary tumor size (OR, 2.02; P<0.001), and aggressive histological type (OR, 7.78 in follicular thyroid carcinoma; OR, 10.33 in poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma; OR, 45.92 in anaplastic thyroid carcinoma; P<0.001). Advanced T stage, advanced N stage, and distant metastasis at diagnosis were highly prevalent in mutated thyroid cancers. However, initial distant metastasis was not present in patients with TERT promoter mutations in PTMC. Although the C228T mutation was more highly detected than the C250T mutation (64 cases vs. 7 cases), there were no significant clinicopathological differences.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first attempt to investigate the frequency of TERT promoter mutations in a real-world setting. The frequency of TERT promoter mutations in PTC was lower than expected, and in PTMC, young patients, and female patients, the frequency was very low.

Development of a Risk Predictive Model for Evaluating Immune Infiltration Status in Invasive Thyroid Carcinoma

Aims

This study aimed to reveal the molecular characteristics and potential biomarker of immune-activated and immunosuppressive invasive thyroid carcinoma.

Methods

Expression and clinical data for invasive thyroid carcinoma were obtained from the TCGA database. Tumor samples were divided into immune-activated or immunosuppressive groups based on the immune enrichment score calculated by ssGSEA. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between tumor vs. normal groups or between immune-activated vs. immunosuppressive groups were screened, followed by functional enrichment. Immune infiltration was evaluated using the ESTIMATE, CIBERSORTx, and EPIC algorithms, respectively. A random forest algorithm and Lasso cox analysis were used to identify gene signatures for risk model construction.

Results

Totally 1171 DEGs were screened between tumor vs. normal groups, and multiple tumorigenesis-associated pathways were significantly activated in invasive thyroid carcinoma. Compared to immune-activated samples, immunosuppressive samples showed higher tumor purity, lower immune/stromal scores, and lower expression of immune markers, as well as lower infiltration abundance of CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells. A risk model based on a 12-immune signature (CCR7, CD1B, CD86, CSF2RB, HCK, HLA-DQA1, LTA, LTB, LYZ, NOD2, TNFRSF9, and TNFSF11) was developed to evaluate the immune infiltration status (AUC = 0.998; AUC of 0.958 and 0.979 in the two external validation datasets), which showed a higher clinical benefit and high accuracy. Immune-activated samples presented lower IC50 value for bortezomib, MG.132, staurosporine, and AZD8055, indicating sensitivity to these drugs.

Conclusion

A 12-gene-based immune signature was developed to predict the immune infiltration status for invasive thyroid carcinoma patients and then to identify the subsets of invasive thyroid carcinoma patients who might benefit from immunotherapy.

A critical analysis of the current TNM classification for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in young patients: Time for a change?

BACKGROUND

The current TNM classification that simply classifies differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients younger than 55 years into stage I and stage II based on the presence or absence of distant metastases has been questioned. In this study, we reexamined the impact of T status and N status on prognosis and then developed a new prediction model to improve the predictability of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in young patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Kaplan-Meier method was applied to calculate the CSS. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of T status and N status on CSS after adjustment for known covariates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were calculated to compare model performance.

RESULTS

A total of 9,242 DTC patients younger than 55 years were enrolled in the study. After adjusting for gender, age at diagnosis, race, pathology subtype, N stage, and M stage, T3 disease [hazard ratio (HR): 3.78, P = 0.006] and T4 disease (HR: 7.96, P < 0.001) remain independent predictors of CSS. Similarly, the 10-year CSS rate of N1b disease (HR: 3.78, P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that of N0 disease after adjustment. Moreover, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the 10-year CSS of stage II disease in younger patients with DTC showed a sharp decrease compared with that in older patients with DTC (74.47% vs. 98.43%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, a modified TNM staging system based on significantly prognostic T stage and N stage was established, which showed better performance than the current TNM staging system (P < 0.05). The new prediction model is also applicable to papillary thyroid carcinoma patients and follicular thyroid carcinoma patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to question the rationality of the current TNM staging system for patients younger than 55 years and successfully develop a new prognostic model, which improves prognostic stratification and guides individualized management.

Concepts of Pathological Staging and Prognosis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (AJCC/UICC) staging and American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk predication system are the best predicators of mortality and cancer recurrence, respectively, in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma, including papillary thyroid carcinoma. In ATA risk stratification of differentiated thyroid carcinomas, clinical features, nodal features, and pathological features are assessed. Many of the features are also assessed in pathological staging. The prognostic stage grouping of papillary thyroid carcinoma in AJCC/UICC depends on the age of the patients as well as the standard parameters-extent of tumor (T), lymph node status (N), and presence of distant metastasis (M). Major changes noted in the current pathological staging protocol include the cut-off age from 45-year to 55-year in grouping of patients, use of gross invasion of strap muscles instead of minimal microscopic extrathyroidal extensions as T3b and downstage of many prognostic groups such as those with lymph node metastases (without distant metastases) from Stage III to Stage II. The staging protocol have moved many patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma into good prognostic groups for better predication of patients' survival rates and to avoid unnecessary treatment. This new approach has been verified by different groups globally, although modifications could be expected in the future for better prognostic assessment in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.