Combination of a 15-SNP Polygenic Risk Score and Classical Risk Factors for the Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk in Cypriot Women

A review of disease risk prediction methods and applications in the omics era

Risk prediction and disease prevention are the innovative care challenges of the 21st century. Apart from freeing the individual from the pain of disease, it will lead to low medical costs for society. Until very recently, risk assessments have ushered in a new era with the emergence of omics technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and so on, which potentially advance the ability of biomarkers to aid prediction models. While risk prediction has achieved great success, there are still some challenges and limitations. We reviewed the general process of omics-based disease risk model construction and the applications in four typical diseases. Meanwhile, we highlighted the problems in current studies and explored the potential opportunities and challenges for future clinical practice.

AURKA Gene Variants rs1047972, and rs8173 Are Associated With Breast Cancer

PURPOSE

Association between variants rs1047972 and rs8173 of the AURKA gene in healthy women and breast cancer (BC) in a Mexican population.

METHODS

Genomic DNA samples from 409 healthy women and 572 patients with BC were analyzed for variants rs1047972 and rs8173 of the AURKA gene by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism.

RESULTS

TT genotype (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-5.11; p = 0.0015) and the T allele (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.23-2.12; p = 0.0007) of the rs1047972 variant were associated as risk susceptibility for BC relative to the control group. Contrarily, the GG genotype (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94; p = 0.029) was associated as a protective factor of susceptibility of BC of the variant rs8173 of the AURKA gene. Differences were observed in the patients with BC who were carriers of the CT genotype of the rs1047972 variant with overweight, obesity, estrogen receptor-positive plus obesity, Ki-67 (≥ 20%) plus history familial positive of cancer; and for variant rs8173 the BC patients who were CG carriers and presented chemotherapy gastric toxicity, hormonal receptor positive plus chemotherapy gastric toxicity, and menopause status plus chemotherapy gastric toxicity (p < 0.05). Two common haplotypes were identified in the study groups: CG and TC genotypes, were associated as a protective and risk factor, respectively (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Variants rs1047972 and rs8173 of the AURKA gene and the TC haplotype were associated as risk susceptibility factors for BC in this population.

Understanding the contribution of lifestyle in breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review of models applicable to Europe

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is a significant health concern among European women, with the highest prevalence rates among all cancers. Existing BC prediction models account for major risks such as hereditary, hormonal and reproductive factors, but research suggests that adherence to a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing BC to some extent. Understanding the influence and predictive role of lifestyle variables in current risk prediction models could help identify actionable, modifiable, targets among high-risk population groups.

PURPOSE

To systematically review population-based BC risk prediction models applicable to European populations and identify lifestyle predictors and their corresponding parameter values for a better understanding of their relative contribution to the prediction of incident BC.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from January 2000 to August 2021. Risk prediction models were included if (i) developed and/or validated in adult cancer-free women in Europe, (ii) based on easily ascertained information, and (iii) reported models' final predictors. To investigate further the comparability of lifestyle predictors across models, estimates were standardised into risk ratios and visualised using forest plots.

RESULTS

From a total of 49 studies, 33 models were developed and 22 different existing models, mostly from Gail (22 studies) and Tyrer-Cuzick and co-workers (12 studies) were validated or modified for European populations. Family history of BC was the most frequently included predictor (31 models), while body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption (26 and 21 models, respectively) were the lifestyle predictors most often included, followed by smoking and physical activity (7 and 6 models respectively). Overall, for lifestyle predictors, their modest predictive contribution was greater for riskier lifestyle levels, though highly variable model estimates across different models.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the increasing BC incidence rates in Europe, risk models utilising readily available risk factors could greatly aid in widening the population coverage of screening efforts, while the addition of lifestyle factors could help improving model performance and serve as intervention targets of prevention programmes.

Evaluation of polygenic risk score for risk prediction of gastric cancer

Genetic variations are associated with individual susceptibility to gastric cancer. Recently, polygenic risk score (PRS) models have been established based on genetic variants to predict the risk of gastric cancer. To assess the accuracy of current PRS models in the risk prediction, a systematic review was conducted. A total of eight eligible studies consisted of 544842 participants were included for evaluation of the performance of PRS models. The overall accuracy was moderate with Area under the curve values ranging from 0.5600 to 0.7823. Incorporation of epidemiological factors or Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) status increased the accuracy for risk prediction, while selection of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and number of SNPs appeared to have little impact on the model performance. To further improve the accuracy of PRS models for risk prediction of gastric cancer, we summarized the association between gastric cancer risk and H. pylori genomic variations, cancer associated bacteria members in the gastric microbiome, discussed the potentials for performance improvement of PRS models with these microbial factors. Future studies on comprehensive PRS models established with human SNPs, epidemiological factors and microbial factors are indicated.

Prediction of gastric cancer risk by a polygenic risk score of Helicobacter pylori

BACKGROUND

Genetic variants of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) are involved in gastric cancer occurrence. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of H. pylori that are associated with gastric cancer have been reported. The combined effect of H. pylori SNPs on the risk of gastric cancer remains unclear.

AIM

To assess the performance of a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on H. pylori SNPs in predicting the risk of gastric cancer.

METHODS

A total of 15 gastric cancer-associated H. pylori SNPs were selected. The associations between these SNPs and gastric cancer were further validated in 1022 global strains with publicly available genome sequences. The PRS model was established based on the validated SNPs. The performance of the PRS for predicting the risk of gastric cancer was assessed in global strains using quintiles and random forest (RF) methods. The variation in the performance of the PRS among different populations of H. pylori was further examined.

RESULTS

Analyses of the association between selected SNPs and gastric cancer in the global dataset revealed that the risk allele frequencies of six SNPs were significantly higher in gastric cancer cases than non-gastric cancer cases. The PRS model constructed subsequently with these validated SNPs produced significantly higher scores in gastric cancer. The odds ratio (OR) value for gastric cancer gradually increased from the first to the fifth quintile of PRS, with the fifth quintile having an OR value as high as 9.76 (95% confidence interval: 5.84-16.29). The results of RF analyses indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) value for classifying gastric cancer and non-gastric cancer was 0.75, suggesting that the PRS based on H. pylori SNPs was capable of predicting the risk of gastric cancer. Assessing the performance of the PRS among different H. pylori populations demonstrated that it had good predictive power for cancer risk for hpEurope strains, with an AUC value of 0.78.

CONCLUSION

The PRS model based on H. pylori SNPs had a good performance for assessment of gastric cancer risk. It would be useful in the prediction of final consequences of the H. pylori infection and beneficial for the management of the infection in clinical settings.