Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for Predicting Recurrence in Medullary Thyroid Cancer

Time Kinetics and prognosis roles of calcitonin after surgery for medullary thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a malignant tumor with low incidence. Currently, most studies have focused on the prognostic risk factors of MTC, whatever, time kinetic and risk factors related to calcitonin normalization (CN) and biochemical persistence/recurrence (BP) are yet to be elucidated.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted for 190 MTC patients. Risk factors related to calcitonin normalization (CN) and biochemical persistence/recurrence (BP) were analyzed. The predictors of calcitonin normalization time (CNT) and biochemical persistent/recurrent time (BPT) were identified. Further, the prognostic roles of CNT and BPT were also demonstrated.

RESULTS

The 5- and 10-year DFS were 86.7% and 70.2%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year OS were 97.6% and 78.8%, respectively. CN was achieved in 120 (63.2%) patients, whereas BP was presented in 76 (40.0%) patients at the last follow up. After curative surgery, 39 (32.5%) and 106 (88.3%) patients achieved CN within 1 week and 1 month. All patients who failed to achieve CN turned to BP over time and 32/70 of them developed structural recurrence. The median time of CNT and BPT was 1 month (1 day to 84 months) and 6 month (3 day to 63months), respectively. LNR > 0.23 and male gender were independent predictors for CN and BP. LNR > 0.23 (Hazard ratio (HR), 0.24; 95% CI,0.13-0.46; P < 0.01) and male gender (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.42-0.99; P = 0.045) were independent predictors for longer CNT. LNR > 0.23 (HR,5.10; 95% CI,2.15-12.11; P < 0.01) was still the strongest independent predictor followed by preoperative serum Ctn > 1400ng/L (HR,2.34; 95% CI,1.29-4.25; P = 0.005) for shorter BPT. In survival analysis, primary tumor size > 2 cm (HR, 5.81; 95% CI,2.20-15.38; P < 0.01), CNT > 1 month (HR, 5.69; 95% CI, 1.17-27.61; P = 0.031) and multifocality (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.45-6.65; P = 0.004) were independent predictor of DFS.

CONCLUSION

Early changes of Ctn after curative surgery can predict the long-term risks of biochemical and structural recurrence, which provide a useful real-time prognostic information. LNR significantly affect the time kinetic of biochemical prognosis. Tumor burden and CNT play a crucial role in MTC survival, the intensity of follow-up must be tailored accordingly.

Changes of biochemical factors and the effect on recurrence of medullary thyroid carcinoma after surgery

Objective

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a rare malignancy secreting calcitonin (Ctn). We aimed to analyze the relationship between Ctn levels at different time points in patients with MTC, and evaluate its predictive effect on recurrence.

Methods

A retrospective study of patients diagnosed with MTC in a large medical center were conducted in northern China. The interrelationships between preoperative Ctn, normalization of postoperative serum Ctn at the first month (NPS), and long-term biochemical cure as well as their predicting roles on structural recurrence were assessed.

Results

A total of 212 patients were included in this study. The median follow-up time was 59.5 months. The 5- and 10-year cumulative disease-free survival rates were 81.5 % and 66.8 %, respectively. NPS (OR: 216.33, 95 % CI: 28.69-1631.09, P < 0.001) and absence of structural recurrence (OR: 61.71, 95 % CI: 3.90-975.31; P = 0.003) were associated with biochemical cure. Non-biochemical cure (OR: 28.76; 95 % CI: 2.84-290.86; P = 0.004, HR: 14.63, 95 % CI: 2.27-94.07, P = 0.005), larger tumor size (OR: 8.79, 95 % CI: 2.12-36.40, P = 0.003, HR: 5.41, 95 % CI: 2.04-14.37, P = 0.001), and multifocality (OR: 4.02, 95 % CI: 1.06-15.17, P = 0.040, HR: 3.00, 95 % CI: 1.18-7.60, P = 0.021) were unfavorable independent predictors of structural recurrence and disease-free survival. For sporadic MTC confined to the thyroid lobe, there was no difference in biochemical or structural prognosis between the different surgeries in the subgroup analysis.

Conclusions

NPS, rather than preoperative Ctn, predicted long-term biochemical cure for MTC. Non-biochemical cure, larger tumor burden including larger tumor size and multifocality at initial surgery, served as worse prognostic predictors.

Lymph Node Ratio as a Predictive Factor of Persistent/Recurrent Disease in Patients With Medullary Thyroid Cancer: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

OBJECTIVE

Thyroidectomy with neck lymph node dissection is curative for most patients with medullary thyroid cancer (MTC). Lymph node ratio (LNR, ie, the ratio between the metastatic and the removed lymph nodes) is a reliable parameter with which to estimate both disease extent and quality of neck dissection. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic role of LNR to predict persistent/recurrent disease in patients with MTC.

METHODS

A single-center, retrospective study of a consecutive cohort of 95 patients with MTC treated with total thyroidectomy and neck dissection. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was performed to identify the LNR cut-off.

RESULTS

LNR was positively associated with tumor size, preoperative and postoperative calcitonin values, postsurgery carcinoembryonic antigen values, persistent/recurrent disease, and the occurrence of distant metastases during follow-up. At multivariate analysis, persistent/recurrent disease was independently associated with the LNR value and was accurately predicted by a cut-off value of 0.12 (area under the curve = 0.85). Indeed, patients with LNR ≥0.12 had a higher probability of developing persistent/recurrent disease (79.3% vs 10.6%, odds ratio = 32.3, 95% CI = 9.8-106.4; P < .001) and distant metastasis (34.5% vs 3.0%, odds ratio = 16.8, 95% CI = 3.4-83.6; P < .001) than patients with LNR <0.12. The median time to progression was 15 months in patients with LNR ≥0.12 whereas it was not reached in patients with LNR <0.12 (hazard ratio: 7.18, 95% CI = 3.01-17.11, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

LNR is a reliable prognostic factor to predict the risk of recurrence, persistence, and distant metastases in patients with MTC.

The prognostic value of lymph node ratio for thyroid cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

The prognostic value of lymph node ratio (LNR) has been proved in several cancers. However, the potential of LNR to be a prognostic factor for thyroid cancer has not been validated so far. This article evaluated the prognostic value of LNR for thyroid cancer through a meta-analysis.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted for eligible publications that study the prognostic values of LNR for thyroid cancer in the databases of PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Web of Science up until October 24, 2023. The quality of the eligible studies was evaluated by The Newcastle-Ottawa Assessment Scale of Cohort Study. The effect measure for meta-analysis was Hazard Ratio (HR). Random effect model was used to calculate the pooled HR and 95% confidence intervals. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess the stability of the results. Subgroup analysis and a meta-regression were performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. And a funnel plot, Begg's and Egger's tests were used to evaluate publication bias.

Results

A total of 15,698 patients with thyroid cancer from 24 eligible studies whose quality were relatively high were included. The pooled HR was 4.74 (95% CI:3.67-6.11; P<0.05) and a moderate heterogeneity was shown (I2 = 40.8%). The results of meta-analysis were stable according to the sensitivity analysis. Similar outcome were shown in subgroup analysis that higher LNR was associated with poorer disease-free survival (DFS). Results from meta-regression indicated that a combination of 5 factors including country, treatment, type of thyroid cancer, year and whether studies control factors in design or analysis were the origin of heterogeneity.

Conclusion

Higher LNR was correlated to poorer disease free survival in thyroid cancer. LNR could be a potential prognostic indicator for thyroid cancer. More effort should be made to assess the potential of LNR to be included in the risk stratification systems for thyroid cancer.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=477135, identifier CRD42023477135.

A proposed grading scheme for predicting recurrence in medullary thyroid cancer based on the Ki67 index and metastatic lymph node ratio

PURPOSE

The Ki67 index and lymph node ratio (LNR) have been proposed as components of alternative pathological classification schemes, but the most appropriate classification for patients with medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to examine the usefulness of a new grading system combining the Ki67 index and LNR as a predictor of prognostic and disease-free survival (DFS) in MTC.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of patients with MTC who were registered at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, P. R. China from June 2003 to October 2021. The DFS rates were assessed using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression modeling to explore the relationship among pathological features, nutritional status and DFS. The Ki67 index (cutoff value: 5% and 10%) and LNR (cutoff value: 0.2 and 0.3) were combined to create a new grading system.

RESULTS

In total, 101 matched patients were assessed. The integrated grading system showed better separation of Kaplan Meier (KM) curves for DFS. As the grading stage progressed, there was a significant stepwise decrease in DFS, which was better than Ki67, LNR and N staging alone. According to the grading system, the high-risk group had a worse prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The proposed grading scheme demonstrated a better prognostic performance in MTC patients than the Ki67, LNR and N staging alone. However, larger scale studies are needed to further verify our findings.

Genetic and clinical profiles of 160 papillary thyroid cancers with lateral neck lymph node metastasis

Background

Lymph node metastasis is widespread in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). Patients are more vulnerable than those with central lymph node metastasis if they have lateral neck lymph node metastasis (LLNM). There are few researches focus on the correlation between clinical characteristics and genetic profile of PTC with LLNM. In this study, we aimed to analyze the clinical and genetic features of PTC with LLNM.

Methods

A total of 160 primary tumor samples derived from PTC patients with LLNM were involved. Targeted next-generation sequencing was carried out on all samples with 57 known thyroid-cancer-related genes. The associations between genomic alternations and clinical characteristics of PTC with LLNM were statistically evaluated.

Results

The median age of patients was 37 years, ranging from 5 to 77 years and the female/male ratio was 1.86. The most frequently altered genes in our series were BRAF mutation (68%), followed by RET fusion (17%), TERT promoter mutation (5%) and PIK3CA mutation (2%). To be noted, all PTC patients with LLNM of TERT promoter mutations appeared along with BRAF mutations (8/8) and half of them experienced a relapse. Intriguingly, we found more metastatic lymph nodes in patients with RET fusion, but there was no statistically significant difference in metastatic lymph node ratio than those with BRAF mutation or without mutation. A high rate of gene fusion (70%) was found in the pediatric population, with aggressive late-onset disease.

Conclusions

PTC patients with LLNM is characterized by a high rate of BRAF mutation. Due to the observed clinicopathological differences in those patients among different alterations, further prospective studies are needed to verify our results and to evaluate the most suitable treatment strategies.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting distant metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma: An analysis of the SEER database based on the AJCC 8th TNM staging system

OBJECTIVE

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients with distant metastases frequently present a relatively poor survival prognosis. Our main purpose was developing a nomogram model to predict distant metastases in MTC patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Data of 807 MTC patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 who undergone total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection was included in our study. Independent risk factors were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis successively, which were used to develop a nomogram model predicting for distant metastasis risk. Further, the log-rank test was used to compare the differences of Kaplan-Meier curves of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in different M stage and each independent risk factor groups.

RESULTS

Four clinical parameters including age > 55 years, higher T stage (T3/T4), higher N stage (N1b) and lymph node ratio (LNR) > 0.4 were significant for distant metastases at the time of diagnosis in MTC patients, and were selected to develop a nomogram model. This model had satisfied discrimination with the AUC and C-index of 0.894, and C-index was confirmed to be 0.878 through bootstrapping validation. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was subsequently made to evaluate the feasibility of this nomogram for predicting distant metastasis. In addition, CSS differed by different M stage, T stage, N stage, age and LNR groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, T stage, N stage and LNR were extracted to develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of distant metastases in MTC patients. The model is of great significance for clinicians to timely identify patients with high risk of distant metastases and make further clinical decisions.

Value of lymph node ratio as a prognostic factor of recurrence in medullary thyroid cancer

Background and Objectives

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between lymph node status (the number of resected lymph nodes; the number of metastatic lymph nodes, LNM, and lymph node ratio, LNR) and biochemical recurrence, disease-free survival (DFS), as well as overall survival (OS) in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC).

Methods

This study enrolled MTC patients at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital between 2011 and 2019. We used Logistic regression analysis, Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier test to identify risk factors influencing biochemical recurrence, DFS, and OS.

Results

We identified 160 patients who satisfied the inclusion criteria from 2011 to 2019. We used ROC analysis to define the cut-off value of LNR with 0.24. Multifocality, preoperative calcitonin levels, pathologic N stage, resected lymph nodes, LNM, LNR, and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) clinical stage were significant (P < 0.05) prognostic factors influencing biochemical cure. In univariable analyses, gross extrathyroidal extension, preoperative calcitonin levels, pathologic T classification, pathologic N stage, resected lymph nodes, LNM, LNR, AJCC clinical stage, and biochemical cure were significant (P < 0.05) factors of DFS. When the multivariable analysis was performed, LNR was identified as predictor of DFS (HR = 4.818, 95% CI [1.270-18.276]). Univariable Cox regression models reflected that tumor size, pathologic N stage, and LNR were predictor of OS. Furthermore, multivariable analysis manifested that LNR was predictor of OS (HR = 10.061, 95% CI [1.222-82.841]).

Conclusions

This study illustrated that LNR was independent prognostic factor of DFS and OS in MTC. In addition, LNR influenced biochemical cure. Further investigations are needed to determine the optimal cut-off value for predicting prognosis.

Beyond N staging in colorectal cancer: Current approaches and future perspectives

Traditionally, lymph node metastases (LNM) evaluation is essential to the staging of colon cancer patients according to the TNM (tumor–node–metastasis) system. However, in recent years evidence has accumulated regarding the role of emerging pathological features, which could significantly impact the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients. Lymph Node Ratio (LNR) and Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes (LODDS) have been shown to predict patients’ prognosis more accurately than traditional nodal staging and it has been suggested that their implementation in existing classification could help stratify further patients with overlapping TNM stage. Tumor deposits (TD) are currently factored within the N1c category of the TNM classification in the absence of lymph node metastases. However, studies have shown that presence of TDs can affect patients’ survival regardless of LNM. Moreover, evidence suggest that presence of TDs should not be evaluated as dichotomic but rather as a quantitative variable. Extranodal extension (ENE) has been shown to correlate with presence of other adverse prognostic features and to impact survival of colorectal cancer patients. In this review we will describe current staging systems and prognostic/predictive factors in colorectal cancer and elaborate on available evidence supporting the implementation of LNR/LODDS, TDs and ENE evaluation in existing classification to improve prognosis estimation and patient selection for adjuvant treatment.