Development and Validation of Novel Deep-Learning Models Using Multiple Data Types for Lung Cancer Survival

A deep learning approach for overall survival prediction in lung cancer with missing values

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In the field of lung cancer research, particularly in the analysis of overall survival (OS), artificial intelligence (AI) serves crucial roles with specific aims. Given the prevalent issue of missing data in the medical domain, our primary objective is to develop an AI model capable of dynamically handling this missing data. Additionally, we aim to leverage all accessible data, effectively analyzing both uncensored patients who have experienced the event of interest and censored patients who have not, by embedding a specialized technique within our AI model, not commonly utilized in other AI tasks. Through the realization of these objectives, our model aims to provide precise OS predictions for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, thus overcoming these significant challenges.

METHODS

We present a novel approach to survival analysis with missing values in the context of NSCLC, which exploits the strengths of the transformer architecture to account only for available features without requiring any imputation strategy. More specifically, this model tailors the transformer architecture to tabular data by adapting its feature embedding and masked self-attention to mask missing data and fully exploit the available ones. By making use of ad-hoc designed losses for OS, it is able to account for both censored and uncensored patients, as well as changes in risks over time.

RESULTS

We compared our method with state-of-the-art models for survival analysis coupled with different imputation strategies. We evaluated the results obtained over a period of 6 years using different time granularities obtaining a Ct-index, a time-dependent variant of the C-index, of 71.97, 77.58 and 80.72 for time units of 1 month, 1 year and 2 years, respectively, outperforming all state-of-the-art methods regardless of the imputation method used.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that our model not only outperforms the state-of-the-art's performance but also simplifies the analysis in the presence of missing data, by effectively eliminating the need to identify the most appropriate imputation strategy for predicting OS in NSCLC patients.

Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database: a collaborative hospital EHR database aligned with international common data standards

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the development and features of the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD), a repository of real-world data (RWD) derived from electronic health records (EHRs) and other sources.

METHODS

TMUCRD was developed by integrating EHRs from three affiliated hospitals, including Taipei Medical University Hospital, Wan-Fang Hospital and Shuang-Ho Hospital. The data cover over 15 years and include diverse patient care information. The database was converted to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model (OMOP CDM) for standardisation.

RESULTS

TMUCRD comprises 89 tables (eg, 29 tables for each hospital and 2 linked tables), including demographics, diagnoses, medications, procedures and measurements, among others. It encompasses data from more than 4.15 million patients with various medical records, spanning from the year 2004 to 2021. The dataset offers insights into disease prevalence, medication usage, laboratory tests and patient characteristics.

DISCUSSION

TMUCRD stands out due to its unique advantages, including diverse data types, comprehensive patient information, linked mortality and cancer registry data, regular updates and a swift application process. Its compatibility with the OMOP CDM enhances its usability and interoperability.

CONCLUSION

TMUCRD serves as a valuable resource for researchers and scholars interested in leveraging RWD for clinical research. Its availability and integration of diverse healthcare data contribute to a collaborative and data-driven approach to advancing medical knowledge and practice.

Application of machine learning for lung cancer survival prognostication-A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Machine learning (ML) techniques have gained increasing attention in the field of healthcare, including predicting outcomes in patients with lung cancer. ML has the potential to enhance prognostication in lung cancer patients and improve clinical decision-making. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the performance of ML models compared to logistic regression (LR) models in predicting overall survival in patients with lung cancer.

Methods

We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. A comprehensive search was conducted in Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases using a predefined search query. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and conflicts were resolved by a third reviewer. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to select eligible studies. Risk of bias assessment was performed using predefined criteria. Data extraction was conducted using the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modeling Studies (CHARMS) checklist. Meta-analytic analysis was performed to compare the discriminative ability of ML and LR models.

Results

The literature search resulted in 3,635 studies, and 12 studies with a total of 211,068 patients were included in the analysis. Six studies reported confidence intervals and were included in the meta-analysis. The performance of ML models varied across studies, with C-statistics ranging from 0.60 to 0.85. The pooled analysis showed that ML models had higher discriminative ability compared to LR models, with a weighted average C-statistic of 0.78 for ML models compared to 0.70 for LR models.

Conclusion

Machine learning models show promise in predicting overall survival in patients with lung cancer, with superior discriminative ability compared to logistic regression models. However, further validation and standardization of ML models are needed before their widespread implementation in clinical practice. Future research should focus on addressing the limitations of the current literature, such as potential bias and heterogeneity among studies, to improve the accuracy and generalizability of ML models for predicting outcomes in patients with lung cancer. Further research and development of ML models in this field may lead to improved patient outcomes and personalized treatment strategies.

Unveiling the future of COVID-19 patient care: groundbreaking prediction models for severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized cases

Background

Previous studies have identified COVID-19 risk factors, such as age and chronic health conditions, linked to severe outcomes and mortality. However, accurately predicting severe illness in COVID-19 patients remains challenging, lacking precise methods.

Objective

This study aimed to leverage clinical real-world data and multiple machine-learning algorithms to formulate innovative predictive models for assessing the risk of severe outcomes or mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD) including electronic health records from three Taiwanese hospitals in Taiwan. This study included patients admitted to the hospitals who received an initial diagnosis of COVID-19 between January 1, 2021, and May 31, 2022. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of severe infection, including ventilator use, intubation, ICU admission, and mortality. Secondary outcomes consisted of individual indicators. The dataset encompassed demographic data, health status, COVID-19 specifics, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results. Two modes (full mode and simplified mode) are used; the former includes all features, and the latter only includes the 30 most important features selected based on the algorithm used by the best model in full mode. Seven machine learning was employed algorithms the performance of the models was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Results

The study encompassed 22,192 eligible in-patients diagnosed with COVID-19. In the full mode, the model using the light gradient boosting machine algorithm achieved the highest AUROC value (0.939), with an accuracy of 85.5%, a sensitivity of 0.897, and a specificity of 0.853. Age, vaccination status, neutrophil count, sodium levels, and platelet count were significant features. In the simplified mode, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm yielded an AUROC of 0.935, an accuracy of 89.9%, a sensitivity of 0.843, and a specificity of 0.902.

Conclusion

This study illustrates the feasibility of constructing precise predictive models for severe outcomes or mortality in COVID-19 patients by leveraging significant predictors and advanced machine learning. These findings can aid healthcare practitioners in proactively predicting and monitoring severe outcomes or mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, improving treatment and resource allocation.

Online decision tools for personalized survival prediction and treatment optimization in elderly patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite major advances in cancer therapeutics, the therapeutic options of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma (LSCC)-specific remain limited. Furthermore, the current staging system is imperfect for defining a prognosis and guiding treatment due to its simplicity and heterogeneity. We sought to develop prognostic decision tools for individualized survival prediction and treatment optimization in elderly patients with LSCC.

METHODS

Clinical data of 4564 patients (stageIB-IIIB) diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for prognostic nomograms development. The proposed models were externally validated using a separate group consisting of 1299 patients (stage IB-IIIB) diagnosed from 2012-2015 in China. The prognostic performance was measured using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, the average time-dependent area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC), and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Eleven candidate prognostic variables were identified by the univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis. The calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual and nomogram-estimated Lung Cancer-Specific Survival (LCSS) rates. By calculating the c-indices and average AUC, our nomograms presented a higher prognostic accuracy than the current staging system. Clinical usefulness was revealed by the decision curve analysis. User-friendly online decision tools integrating proposed nomograms were created to estimate survival for patients with different treatment regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision tools for individualized survival prediction and treatment optimization might facilitate clinicians with decision-making, medical teaching, and experimental design. Online tools are expected to be integrated into clinical practice by using the freely available website ( https://loyal-brand-611803.framer.app/ ).