CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Assessing the climate change impact on the habitat suitability of the range-restricted bird species (Catreus wallichii) in the Indian Himalayan ecosystem

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems' function and composition, changing living organisms' habitats. The Indian Himalayan ecosystem (IHE) is particularly susceptible and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, our understanding of how climate change affects the habitats of range-restricted and vulnerable avifauna in the IHE still needs to be improved. Hence, we employed ensemble species distribution modelling to examine the potential habitat shift of the cheer pheasant (Catreus wallichii) under climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) i.e. RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070. The study revealed a noticeable expansion of climatically suitable habitats, indicating a shift towards higher altitudes that would become more favourable and suitable under future climates. The model predicted an area of very highly suitable habitat (1247.4 km2), followed by highly suitable (2747.9 km2), moderately suitable (4002.3 km2), low suitable (4952.2 km2) and rarely suitable (4236 km2) in the current scenario. The projection of larger areas was falling into the "no change", followed by the "high suitable" and "low suitable" classes, for both the years 2050 and 2070 across all the RCPs. Furthermore, the projections indicated a consistent trend of increasing suitability for the cheer pheasant at higher elevations and a decline at lower elevations across RCPs for 2050 and 2070. Moreover, the mean diurnal temperature range was identified as the crucial driving factor, followed by isothermally and precipitation, influencing the species' shift towards suitable habitats at higher altitudes. The study can aid policymakers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect Himalayan range-restricted bird species in the face of climate change.

Sub-regional variation in atmospheric and land variables regulates tea yield in the Dooars region of West Bengal, India

Climatic variables can have localized variations within a region and these localized climate patterns can have significant effect on production of climate-sensitive crops such as tea. Even though tea cultivation and industries significantly contribute to employment generation and foreign earnings of several South Asian nations including India, sub-regional differences in the effects of climatic and soil variables on tea yield have remained unexplored since past studies focused on a tea-producing region as a whole and did not account for local agro-climatic conditions. Here, using a garden-level panel dataset based on tea gardens of Dooars region, a prominent tea-producing region in India, we explored how sub-regional variations in climatic and land variables might differently affect tea yield within a tea-producing region. Our analysis showed that the Dooars region harboured significant spatial variability for different climatic (temperature, precipitation, surface solar radiation) and soil temperature variables. Using graph-based Louvain clustering of tea gardens, we identified four spatial sub-regions which varied in terms of topography, annual and seasonal distribution of climatic and land variables and tea yield. Our sub-region-specific panel regression analyses revealed differential effects of climatic and land variables on tea yield of different sub-regions. Finally, for different emission scenario, we also projected future (2025-2100) tea yield in each sub-region based on predictions of climatic variables from three GCMs (MIROC5, CCSM4 and CESM1(CAM5)). A large variation in future seasonal production changes was projected across sub-regions (-23.4-35.7% changes in premonsoon, -4.2-3.1% changes in monsoon and -10.9-10.7% changes in postmonsoon tea production, respectively).

Assessment of Climatic Parameters for Future Climate Change in a Major Agricultural State in India

The change in future climate will have a prominent impact on crop production and water requirement. Crop production is directly related to climatic variables. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, CO2 concentration and other climatic variables dictate crop yield. This study, based on long-term historical data, investigates the patterns and changes in climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) that would most significantly affect the future crop production in many parts of the world, and especially in India, where most farmers depend on rainfall for rice production. Statistical analyses—box and whisker plot, mean absolute error, Taylor diagram, double mass curve, Mann–Kendall trend test, and projected climate change—were used to assess the significance of the climatic factors for the purpose of agricultural modeling. Large variability in precipitation may cause the flash floods and affect the farming, and at the same time, increase in temperature from baseline period will lead to high water requirement by crops, and may cause drought if rainfall does not occur. Decrease in solar radiation will affect crop growth and development, and thus, would hamper the crop production. The results of this study would be useful in identifying the negative issues arising from climate change in future agricultural practices in Bihar, India. Furthermore, the results can also help in developing management strategies to combat the climate change impact on crop production.

Prediction of the globally ecological suitability of Panax quinquefolius by the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS)

American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) is a well-known Asian traditional herbal medicine with a large market demand. The plant is native to eastern North America, and its main producing areas worldwide are decreasing due to continuous cropping obstacles and environmental changes. Therefore, the identification of maximum similarities of new ecological distribution of P. quinquefolius, and prediction of its response to climate change in the future are necessary for plant introduction and cultivation. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for P. quinquefolius were predicted using the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS) based on 476 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables. The results indicate that the new ecologically suitable areas for P. quinquefolius are East Asia and the mid-eastern Europe, which are mainly distributed in China, Russia, Japan, Ukraine, Belarus, North Korean, South Korea, andRomania. Under global climate change scenarios, the suitable planting areas for P. quinquefolius would be increased by 9.16%-30.97%, and expandingnorth and west over the current ecologically suitable areas by 2070. The potential increased areas that are ecologically suitable include northern Canada, Eastern Europe, and the Lesser Khingan Mountains of China, and reduced regions are mainly in central China, the southern U.S., and southern Europe. Jackknife tests indicate that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the important climatic factor controlling the distribution of P. quinquefolius. Our findings can be used as auseful guide for P. quinquefolius introduction and cultivation in ecologically suitable areas.