Evaluation of Blood Biomarkers and Parameters for the Prediction of Stroke Survivors' Functional Outcome upon Discharge Utilizing Explainable Machine Learning

Vascular medicine in the 21st century: Embracing comprehensive vasculature evaluation and multidisciplinary treatment

The field of vascular medicine has undergone a profound transformation in the 21st century, transforming our approach to assessment and treatment. Atherosclerosis, a complex inflammatory disease that affects medium and large arteries, presents a major challenge for researchers and healthcare professionals. This condition, characterized by arterial plaque formation and narrowing, poses substantial challenges to vascular health at individual, national, and global scales. Its repercussions are far-reaching, with clinical outcomes including ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease-conditions with escalating global prevalence. Early detection of vascular changes caused by atherosclerosis is crucial in preventing these conditions, reducing morbidity, and averting mortality. This article underscored the imperative of adopting a holistic approach to grappling with the intricacies, trajectories, and ramifications of atherosclerosis. It stresses the need for a thorough evaluation of the vasculature and the implementation of a multidisciplinary treatment approach. By considering the entire vascular system, healthcare providers can explore avenues for prevention, early detection, and effective management of this condition, ultimately leading to improved patient outcomes. We discussed current practices and proposed new directions made possible by emerging diagnostic modalities and treatment strategies. Additionally, we considered healthcare expenditure, resource allocation, and the transformative potential of new innovative treatments and technologies.

A novel prediction score determining individual clinical outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke (PREDICT-score)

BACKGROUND

Juvenile strokes (< 55 years) account for about 15% of all ischemic strokes. Structured data on clinical outcome in those patients are sparse. Here, we aimed to fill this gap by systematically collecting relevant data and modeling a juvenile stroke prediction score for the 3-month functional outcome.

METHODS

We retrospectively integrated and analyzed clinical and outcome data of juvenile stroke and TIA patients treated at the LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich. Good outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 0-2 or return to baseline of function. We analyzed candidate predictors and developed a predictive model. Predictive abilities were inspected using Area Under the ROC curve (AUROC) and visual representation of the calibration. The model was validated internally.

RESULTS

346 patients were included in the analysis. We observed a good outcome in n = 293 patients (84.7%). The prediction model for an unfavourable outcome had an AUROC of 89.1% (95% CI 83.3-93.1%). The model includes age NIHSS, ASPECTS, blood glucose and type of vessel occlusion as predictors for the individual patient outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Here, we introduce the highly accurate PREDICT-score for the 3-month outcome after juvenile stroke derived from clinical routine data. The PREDICT-score might be helpful in guiding individual patient decisions and designing future studies but needs further prospective validation which is already planned. Trial registration The study has been registered at https://drks.de (DRKS00024407) on March 31, 2022.

Machine learning decision support model for discharge planning in stroke patients

BACKGROUND/AIM

Efficient discharge for stroke patients is crucial but challenging. The study aimed to develop early predictive models to explore which patient characteristics and variables significantly influence the discharge planning of patients, based on the data available within 24 h of admission.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

METHODS

A prospective cohort was conducted at a university hospital with 523 patients hospitalised for stroke. We built and trained six different machine learning (ML) models, followed by testing and tuning those models to find the best-suited predictor for discharge disposition, dichotomized into home and non-home. To evaluate the accuracy, reliability and interpretability of the best-performing models, we identified and analysed the features that had the greatest impact on the predictions.

RESULTS

In total, 523 patients met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age of 61 years. Of the patients with stroke, 30.01% had non-home discharge. Our model predicting non-home discharge achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.95 and a precision of 0.776. After threshold was moved, the model had a recall of 0.809. Top 10 variables by importance were National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, family income, Barthel index (BI) score, FRAIL score, fall risk, pressure injury risk, feeding method, depression, age and dysphagia.

CONCLUSION

The ML model identified higher NIHSS, BI, and FRAIL, family income, higher fall risk, pressure injury risk, older age, tube feeding, depression and dysphagia as the top 10 strongest risk predictors in identifying patients who required non-home discharge to higher levels of care. Modern ML techniques can support timely and appropriate clinical decision-making.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

This study illustrates the characteristics and risk factors of non-home discharge in patients with stroke, potentially contributing to the improvement of the discharge process.

REPORTING METHOD

STROBE guidelines.

Integrative Approaches in Acute Ischemic Stroke: From Symptom Recognition to Future Innovations

Among the high prevalence of cerebrovascular diseases nowadays, acute ischemic stroke stands out, representing a significant worldwide health issue with important socio-economic implications. Prompt diagnosis and intervention are important milestones for the management of this multifaceted pathology, making understanding the various stroke-onset symptoms crucial. A key role in acute ischemic stroke management is emphasizing the essential role of a multi-disciplinary team, therefore, increasing the efficiency of recognition and treatment. Neuroimaging and neuroradiology have evolved dramatically over the years, with multiple approaches that provide a higher understanding of the morphological aspects as well as timely recognition of cerebral artery occlusions for effective therapy planning. Regarding the treatment matter, the pharmacological approach, particularly fibrinolytic therapy, has its merits and challenges. Endovascular thrombectomy, a game-changer in stroke management, has witnessed significant advances, with technologies like stent retrievers and aspiration catheters playing pivotal roles. For select patients, combining pharmacological and endovascular strategies offers evidence-backed benefits. The aim of our comprehensive study on acute ischemic stroke is to efficiently compare the current therapies, recognize novel possibilities from the literature, and describe the state of the art in the interdisciplinary approach to acute ischemic stroke. As we aspire for holistic patient management, the emphasis is not just on medical intervention but also on physical therapy, mental health, and community engagement. The future holds promising innovations, with artificial intelligence poised to reshape stroke diagnostics and treatments. Bridging the gap between groundbreaking research and clinical practice remains a challenge, urging continuous collaboration and research.

From Admission to Discharge: Predicting National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale Progression in Stroke Patients Using Biomarkers and Explainable Machine Learning

As a result of social progress and improved living conditions, which have contributed to a prolonged life expectancy, the prevalence of strokes has increased and has become a significant phenomenon. Despite the available stroke treatment options, patients frequently suffer from significant disability after a stroke. Initial stroke severity is a significant predictor of functional dependence and mortality following an acute stroke. The current study aims to collect and analyze data from the hyperacute and acute phases of stroke, as well as from the medical history of the patients, in order to develop an explainable machine learning model for predicting stroke-related neurological deficits at discharge, as measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). More specifically, we approached the data as a binary task problem: improvement of NIHSS progression vs. worsening of NIHSS progression at discharge, using baseline data within the first 72 h. For feature selection, a genetic algorithm was applied. Using various classifiers, we found that the best scores were achieved from the Random Forest (RF) classifier at the 15 most informative biomarkers and parameters for the binary task of the prediction of NIHSS score progression. RF achieved 91.13% accuracy, 91.13% recall, 90.89% precision, 91.00% f1-score, 8.87% FNrate and 4.59% FPrate. Those biomarkers are: age, gender, NIHSS upon admission, intubation, history of hypertension and smoking, the initial diagnosis of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia and atrial fibrillation, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels, stroke localization, systolic blood pressure levels, as well as erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) levels upon admission and the onset of respiratory infection. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model interpreted the impact of the selected features on the model output. Our findings suggest that the aforementioned variables may play a significant role in determining stroke patients' NIHSS progression from the time of admission until their discharge.

Monocyte to HDL and Neutrophil to HDL Ratios as Potential Ischemic Stroke Prognostic Biomarkers

Ischemic stroke (IS) exhibits significant heterogeneity in terms of etiology and pathophysiology. Several recent studies highlight the significance of inflammation in the onset and progression of IS. White blood cell subtypes, such as neutrophils and monocytes, participate in the inflammatory response in various ways. On the other hand, high-density lipoproteins (HDL) exhibit substantial anti-inflammatory and antioxidant actions. Consequently, novel inflammatory blood biomarkers have emerged, such as neutrophil to HDL ratio (NHR) and monocyte to HDL ratio (MHR). Literature research of two databases (MEDLINE and Scopus) was conducted to identify all relevant studies published between 1 January 2012 and 30 November 2022 dealing with NHR and MHR as biomarkers for IS prognosis. Only full-text articles published in the English language were included. Thirteen articles have been traced and are included in the present review. Our findings highlight the utility of NHR and MHR as novel stroke prognostic biomarkers, the widespread application, and the calculation of which, along with their inexpensive cost, make their clinical application extremely promising.