Error Consistency for Machine Learning Evaluation and Validation with Application to Biomedical Diagnostics

An Explainable Artificial Intelligence Model Proposed for the Prediction of Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and the Identification of Distinctive Metabolites

BACKGROUND

Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is a complex and debilitating illness with a significant global prevalence, affecting over 65 million individuals. It affects various systems, including the immune, neurological, gastrointestinal, and circulatory systems. Studies have shown abnormalities in immune cell types, increased inflammatory cytokines, and brain abnormalities. Further research is needed to identify consistent biomarkers and develop targeted therapies. This study uses explainable artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to identify discriminative metabolites for ME/CFS.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The model investigates a metabolomics dataset of CFS patients and healthy controls, including 26 healthy controls and 26 ME/CFS patients aged 22-72. The dataset encapsulated 768 metabolites into nine metabolic super-pathways: amino acids, carbohydrates, cofactors, vitamins, energy, lipids, nucleotides, peptides, and xenobiotics. Random forest methods together with other classifiers were applied to the data to classify individuals as ME/CFS patients and healthy individuals. The classification learning algorithms' performance in the validation step was evaluated using a variety of methods, including the traditional hold-out validation method, as well as the more modern cross-validation and bootstrap methods. Explainable artificial intelligence approaches were applied to clinically explain the optimum model's prediction decisions.

RESULTS

The metabolomics of C-glycosyltryptophan, oleoylcholine, cortisone, and 3-hydroxydecanoate were determined to be crucial for ME/CFS diagnosis. The random forest model outperformed the other classifiers in ME/CFS prediction using the 1000-iteration bootstrapping method, achieving 98% accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, 0.01 Brier score, and 99% AUC. According to the obtained results, the bootstrap validation approach demonstrated the highest classification outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The proposed model accurately classifies ME/CFS patients based on the selected biomarker candidate metabolites. It offers a clear interpretation of risk estimation for ME/CFS, aiding physicians in comprehending the significance of key metabolomic features within the model.

Current status, challenges and future prospects in computational psychiatry: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Computational psychiatry is an area of scientific knowledge which lies at the intersection of neuroscience, psychiatry, and computer science. It employs mathematical models and computational simulations to shed light on the complexities inherent to mental disorders.

AIM

The aim of this narrative review is to offer insight into the current landscape of computational psychiatry, to discuss its significant challenges, as well as the potential opportunities for the fields growth.

METHODS

The authors have carried out a narrative review of the scientific literature published on the topic of computational psychiatry. The literature search was performed in the PubMed, eLibrary, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar databases. A descriptive analysis was used to summarize the published information on the theoretical and practical aspects of computational psychiatry.

RESULTS

The article relates the development of the scientific approach in computational psychiatry since the mid-1980s. The data on the practical application of computational psychiatry in modeling psychiatric disorders and explaining the mechanisms of how psychopathological symptomatology develops (in schizophrenia, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, anxiety disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder, substance use disorders) are summarized. Challenges, limitations, and the prospects of computational psychiatry are discussed.

CONCLUSION

The capacity of current computational technologies in psychiatry has reached a stage where its integration into psychiatric practice is not just feasible but urgently needed. The hurdles that now need to be addressed are no longer rooted in technological advancement, but in ethics, education, and understanding.