Structure of a Global Network of Financial Companies Based on Transfer Entropy

Causal Hierarchy in the Financial Market Network-Uncovered by the Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira Decomposition

Granger causality can uncover the cause-and-effect relationships in financial networks. However, such networks can be convoluted and difficult to interpret, but the Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira decomposition can split them into rotational and gradient components which reveal the hierarchy of the Granger causality flow. Using Kenneth French's business sector return time series, it is revealed that during the COVID crisis, precious metals and pharmaceutical products were causal drivers of the financial network. Moreover, the estimated Granger causality network shows a high connectivity during the crisis, which means that the research presented here can be especially useful for understanding crises in the market better by revealing the dominant drivers of crisis dynamics.

Enhancing Exchange-Traded Fund Price Predictions: Insights from Information-Theoretic Networks and Node Embeddings

This study presents a novel approach to predicting price fluctuations for U.S. sector index ETFs. By leveraging information-theoretic measures like mutual information and transfer entropy, we constructed threshold networks highlighting nonlinear dependencies between log returns and trading volume rate changes. We derived centrality measures and node embeddings from these networks, offering unique insights into the ETFs' dynamics. By integrating these features into gradient-boosting algorithm-based models, we significantly enhanced the predictive accuracy. Our approach offers improved forecast performance for U.S. sector index futures and adds a layer of explainability to the existing literature.

Spreading Dynamics of Capital Flow Transfer in Complex Financial Networks

The financial system, a complex network, operates primarily through the exchange of capital, where the role of information is critical. This study utilizes the transfer entropy method to examine the strength and direction of information flow among different capital flow time series and investigate the community structure within the transfer networks. Moreover, the spreading dynamics of the capital flow transfer networks are observed, and the importance and traveling time of each node are explored. The results imply a dominant role for the food and drink industry within the Chinese market, with increased attention towards the computer industry starting in 2014. The community structure of the capital flow transfer networks significantly differs from those constructed from stock prices, with the main sector predominantly encompassing industry leaders favored by primary funds with robust capital flow connections. The average traveling time from sectors such as food and drink, coal, and utilities to other sectors is the shortest, and the dynamic flow between these sectors displays a significant role. These findings highlight that comprehension of information flow and community structure within the financial system can offer valuable insights into market dynamics and help to identify key sectors and companies.

Information flow among stocks, bonds, and convertible bonds

This study examines the information flow between convertible bonds (CBs) and other investment assets, such as stocks and bonds. In particular, we employ transfer entropy (TE) as a proxy for the causal effect between the two assets considering that one of the most widely used methods, Granger causality, requires strict assumptions. When adopting TE, we find that asymmetric information flow arising between assets depends on macroeconomic phases. The stock and bond markets affected the CB market prior to and during the global financial crisis, respectively. In the post-crisis period, we find no meaningful information exchange between CBs and other investment assets concerning their return series. However, we observe a significant cause-effect relationship between CBs and stocks in the rise-fall patterns of their price series. The findings suggest that the appearance of one-directional information flow depends on macroeconomic conditions and the level of data, for example, return series or price fluctuations. Accordingly, investors could exploit this pattern predictability in their portfolio management. In addition, policymakers must closely monitor the information flow among the three markets. When any two markets exchange information in a state of strong market integration, unbalanced regulation between them could lead to market distortions and regulatory arbitrage.

Lead–lag detection and network clustering for multivariate time series with an application to the US equity market

In multivariate time series systems, it has been observed that certain groups of variables partially lead the evolution of the system, while other variables follow this evolution with a time delay; the result is a lead–lag structure amongst the time series variables. In this paper, we propose a method for the detection of lead–lag clusters of time series in multivariate systems. We demonstrate that the web of pairwise lead–lag relationships between time series can be helpfully construed as a directed network, for which there exist suitable algorithms for the detection of pairs of lead–lag clusters with high pairwise imbalance. Within our framework, we consider a number of choices for the pairwise lead–lag metric and directed network clustering model components. Our framework is validated on both a synthetic generative model for multivariate lead–lag time series systems and daily real-world US equity prices data. We showcase that our method is able to detect statistically significant lead–lag clusters in the US equity market. We study the nature of these clusters in the context of the empirical finance literature on lead–lag relations, and demonstrate how these can be used for the construction of predictive financial signals.

Modifying (M)CoVaR and constructing tail risk networks through analytic higher-order moments: Evidence from the global forex markets

In a financial system, entities (e.g., companies or markets) face systemic risk that could lead to financial instability. To prevent this impact, we require quantitative systemic risk management we can carry out using conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) and a network model. The former measures any targeted entity's tail risk conditional on another entity being financially distressed; the latter represents the financial system through a set of nodes and a set of edges. In this study, we modify CoVaR along with its multivariate extension (MCoVaR) considering the joint conditioning events of multiple entities. We accomplish this by first employing a multivariate Johnson's SU risk model to capture the asymmetry and leptokurticity of the entities' asset returns. We then adopt the Cornish-Fisher expansion to account for the analytic higher-order conditional moments in modifying (M)CoVaR. In addition, we attempt to construct a conditional tail risk network. We identify its edges using a corresponding Delta (M)CoVaR reflecting the systemic risk contribution and further compute the strength and clustering coefficient of its nodes. When applying the financial system to global foreign exchange (forex) markets before and during COVID-19, we revealed that the resulting expanded (M)CoVaR forecast exhibited a better conditional coverage performance than its unexpanded version. Its superior performance appeared to be more evident over the COVID-19 period. Furthermore, our network analysis shows that advanced and emerging forex markets generally play roles as net transmitters and net receivers of systemic risk, respectively. The former (respectively, the latter) also possessed a high tendency to cluster with their neighbors in the network during (respectively, before) COVID-19. Overall, the interconnectedness and clustering tendency of the examined global forex markets substantially increased as the pandemic progressed.

Volatility Dynamics of Non-Linear Volatile Time Series and Analysis of Information Flow: Evidence from Cryptocurrency Data

This paper aims to empirically examine long memory and bi-directional information flow between estimated volatilities of highly volatile time series datasets of five cryptocurrencies. We propose the employment of Garman and Klass (GK), Parkinson’s, Rogers and Satchell (RS), and Garman and Klass-Yang and Zhang (GK-YZ), and Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) volatility estimators to estimate cryptocurrencies’ volatilities. The study applies methods such as mutual information, transfer entropy (TE), effective transfer entropy (ETE), and Rényi transfer entropy (RTE) to quantify the information flow between estimated volatilities. Additionally, Hurst exponent computations examine the existence of long memory in log returns and OHLC volatilities based on simple R/S, corrected R/S, empirical, corrected empirical, and theoretical methods. Our results confirm the long-run dependence and non-linear behavior of all cryptocurrency’s log returns and volatilities. In our analysis, TE and ETE estimates are statistically significant for all OHLC estimates. We report the highest information flow from BTC to LTC volatility (RS). Similarly, BNB and XRP share the most prominent information flow between volatilities estimated by GK, Parkinson’s, and GK-YZ. The study presents the practicable addition of OHLC volatility estimators for quantifying the information flow and provides an additional choice to compare with other volatility estimators, such as stochastic volatility models.

A novel approach GRNTSTE to reconstruct gene regulatory interactions applied to a case study for rat pineal rhythm gene

Accurate inference and prediction of gene regulatory network are very important for understanding dynamic cellular processes. The large-scale time series genomics data are helpful to reveal the molecular dynamics and dynamic biological processes of complex biological systems. Firstly, we collected the time series data of the rat pineal gland tissue in the natural state according to a fixed sampling rate, and performed whole-genome sequencing. The large-scale time-series sequencing data set of rat pineal gland was constructed, which includes 480 time points, the time interval between adjacent time points is 3 min, and the sampling period is 24 h. Then, we proposed a new method of constructing gene expression regulatory network, named the gene regulatory network based on time series data and entropy transfer (GRNTSTE) method. The method is based on transfer entropy and large-scale time-series gene expression data to infer the causal regulatory relationship between genes in a data-driven mode. The comparative experiments prove that GRNTSTE has better performance than dynamical gene network inference with ensemble of trees (dynGENIE3) and SCRIBE, and has similar performance to TENET. Meanwhile, we proved that the performance of GRNTSTE is slightly lower than that of SINCERITIES method and better than other gene regulatory network construction methods in BEELINE framework, which is based on the BEELINE data set. Finally, the rat pineal rhythm gene expression regulatory network was constructed by us based on the GRNTSTE method, which provides an important reference for the study of the pineal rhythm mechanism, and is of great significance to the study of the pineal rhythm mechanism.

Entropy Variations of Multi-Scale Returns of Optimal and Noise Traders Engaged in “Bucket Shop Trading”

In this paper a comparative, coarse grained, entropy data analysis of multi-scale log-returns distribution, produced by an ideal “optimal trader” and one thousand “noise traders” performing “bucket shop” trading, by following four different financial daily indices, is presented. A sole optimal trader is assigned to each one of these four analyzed markets, DJIA, IPC, Nikkei and DAX. Distribution of differential entropies of the corresponding multi-scale log-returns of the optimal and noise traders are calculated. Kullback-Leiber distances between the different optimal traders returns distributions are also calculated and results discussed. We show that the entropy of returns distribution of optimal traders for each analyzed market indeed reaches minimum values with respect to entropy distribution of noise traders and we measure this distance in σ units for each analyzed market. We also include a discussion on stationarity of the introduced multi-scale log-returns observable. Finally, a practical application of the obtained results related with ranking markets by their entropy measure as calculated here is presented.

Using Entropy to Evaluate the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Financial Networks

We analyze the changes in the financial network built using the Dow Jones Industrial Average components following monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy shocks are measured through unexpected changes in the federal funds rate in the United States. We determine the changes in the financial networks using singular value decomposition entropy and von Neumann entropy. The results indicate that unexpected positive shocks in monetary policy shocks lead to lower entropy. The results are robust to varying the window size used to construct financial networks, though they also depend on the type of entropy used.

Coherence and Entropy of Credit Cycles across the Euro Area Candidate Countries

The pattern of financial cycles in the European Union has direct impacts on financial stability and economic sustainability in view of adoption of the euro. The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of coherence of credit cycles in the countries potentially seeking to adopt the euro with the credit cycle inside the Eurozone. We first estimate the credit cycles in the selected countries and in the euro area (at the aggregate level) and filter the series with the Hodrick–Prescott filter for the period 1999Q1–2020Q4. Based on these values, we compute the indicators that define the credit cycle similarity and synchronicity in the selected countries and a set of entropy measures (block entropy, entropy rate, Bayesian entropy) to show the high degree of heterogeneity, noting that the manifestation of the global financial crisis has changed the credit cycle patterns in some countries. Our novel approach provides analytical tools to cope with euro adoption decisions, showing how the coherence of credit cycles can be increased among European countries and how the national macroprudential policies can be better coordinated, especially in light of changes caused by the pandemic crisis.

Risk spillover networks in financial system based on information theory

Since the financial system has illustrated an increasingly prominent characteristic of inextricable connections, information theory is gradually utilized to study the financial system. By collecting the daily data of industry index (2005-2020) and region index (2012-2020) listed in China as samples, this paper applies an innovative measure named partial mutual information on mixed embedding to generate directed networks. Based on the analysis of nonlinear relationships among sectors, this paper realizes the accurate construction of "time-varying" financial network from the perspective of risk spillover. The results are presented as follow: (1) interactions can be better understood through the nonlinear networks among distinct sectors, and sectors in the networks could be classified into different types according to their topological properties connected to risk spillover; (2) in the rising stage, information is transmitted rapidly in the network, so the risk is fast diffused and absorbed; (3) in the declining stage, the network topology is more complex and panic sentiments have long term impact leading to more connections; (4) The US market, Japan market and Hongkong market have significant affect on China's market. The results suggest that this nonlinear measure is an effective approach to develop financial networks and explore the mechanism of risk spillover.

Detecting and Analyzing Politically-Themed Stocks Using Text Mining Techniques and Transfer Entropy-Focus on the Republic of Korea's Case

Politically-themed stocks mainly refer to stocks that benefit from the policies of politicians. This study gave the empirical analysis of the politically-themed stocks in the Republic of Korea and constructed politically-themed stock networks based on the Republic of Korea’s politically-themed stocks, derived mainly from politicians. To select politically-themed stocks, we calculated the daily politician sentiment index (PSI), which means politicians’ daily reputation using politicians’ search volume data and sentiment analysis results from politician-related text data. Additionally, we selected politically-themed stock candidates from politician-related search volume data. To measure causal relationships, we adopted entropy-based measures. We determined politically-themed stocks based on causal relationships from the rates of change of the PSI to their abnormal returns. To illustrate causal relationships between politically-themed stocks, we constructed politically-themed stock networks based on causal relationships using entropy-based approaches. Moreover, we experimented using politically-themed stocks in real-world situations from the schematized networks, focusing on politically-themed stock networks’ dynamic changes. We verified that the investment strategy using the PSI and politically-themed stocks that we selected could benchmark the main stock market indices such as the KOSPI and KOSDAQ around political events.

Fast and effective pseudo transfer entropy for bivariate data-driven causal inference

Identifying, from time series analysis, reliable indicators of causal relationships is essential for many disciplines. Main challenges are distinguishing correlation from causality and discriminating between direct and indirect interactions. Over the years many methods for data-driven causal inference have been proposed; however, their success largely depends on the characteristics of the system under investigation. Often, their data requirements, computational cost or number of parameters limit their applicability. Here we propose a computationally efficient measure for causality testing, which we refer to as pseudo transfer entropy (pTE), that we derive from the standard definition of transfer entropy (TE) by using a Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate the power of the pTE measure on simulated and on real-world data. In all cases we find that pTE returns results that are very similar to those returned by Granger causality (GC). Importantly, for short time series, pTE combined with time-shifted (T-S) surrogates for significance testing strongly reduces the computational cost with respect to the widely used iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) surrogate testing. For example, for time series of 100 data points, pTE and T-S reduce the computational time by \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$82\%$$\end{document}82% with respect to GC and IAAFT. We also show that pTE is robust against observational noise. Therefore, we argue that the causal inference approach proposed here will be extremely valuable when causality networks need to be inferred from the analysis of a large number of short time series.

Dynamics of the price-volume information flow based on surrogate time series

This paper uses transfer entropy and surrogates to analyze the information flow between price and transaction volume. We use random surrogates to construct local random permutation (LRP) surrogates that can analyze the local information flow in detail. The analysis based on the toy models verifies the effectiveness of the LRP method. We further apply it to analyze three financial datasets, including two index datasets and one stock dataset. Empirical analysis shows that both the S&P500 index data and SSEC index data include rich information flow dynamics. There was a stronger information flow during the stock bubble burst or the financial crisis. In addition, tests based on stock data suggest that market crises may lead to changes in the relationship between prices and trading volume. This paper provides a new way to analyze the price-volume relationship, which can effectively detect the drastic changes in the local information flow, thereby providing a method for studying the impact of events.

The Flow of Information in Trading: An Entropy Approach to Market Regimes

In this study, we use entropy-based measures to identify different types of trading behaviors. We detect the return-driven trading using the conditional block entropy that dynamically reflects the “self-causality” of market return flows. Then we use the transfer entropy to identify the news-driven trading activity that is revealed by the information flows from news sentiment to market returns. We argue that when certain trading behavior becomes dominant or jointly dominant, the market will form a specific regime, namely return-, news- or mixed regime. Based on 11 years of news and market data, we find that the evolution of financial market regimes in terms of adaptive trading activities over the 2008 liquidity and euro-zone debt crises can be explicitly explained by the information flows. The proposed method can be expanded to make “causal” inferences on other types of economic phenomena.

Synergistic Information Transfer in the Global System of Financial Markets

Uncovering dynamic information flow between stock market indices has been the topic of several studies which exploited the notion of transfer entropy or Granger causality, its linear version. The output of the transfer entropy approach is a directed weighted graph measuring the information about the future state of each target provided by the knowledge of the state of each driving stock market index. In order to go beyond the pairwise description of the information flow, thus looking at higher order informational circuits, here we apply the partial information decomposition to triplets consisting of a pair of driving markets (belonging to America or Europe) and a target market in Asia. Our analysis, on daily data recorded during the years 2000 to 2019, allows the identification of the synergistic information that a pair of drivers carry about the target. By studying the influence of the closing returns of drivers on the subsequent overnight changes of target indexes, we find that (i) Korea, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore are, in order, the most influenced Asian markets; (ii) US indices SP500 and Russell are the strongest drivers with respect to the bivariate Granger causality; and (iii) concerning higher order effects, pairs of European and American stock market indices play a major role as the most synergetic three-variables circuits. Our results show that the Synergy, a proxy of higher order predictive information flow rooted in information theory, provides details that are complementary to those obtained from bivariate and global Granger causality, and can thus be used to get a better characterization of the global financial system.

Network Analysis of Multivariate Transfer Entropy of Cryptocurrencies in Times of Turbulence

We investigate the effects of the recent financial turbulence of 2020 on the market of cryptocurrencies taking into account the hourly price and volume of transactions from December 2019 to April 2020. The data were subdivided into time frames and analyzed the directed network generated by the estimation of the multivariate transfer entropy. The approach followed here is based on a greedy algorithm and multiple hypothesis testing. Then, we explored the clustering coefficient and the degree distributions of nodes for each subperiod. It is found the clustering coefficient increases dramatically in March and coincides with the most severe fall of the recent worldwide stock markets crash. Further, the log-likelihood in all cases bent over a power law distribution, with a higher estimated power during the period of major financial contraction. Our results suggest the financial turbulence induce a higher flow of information on the cryptocurrency market in the sense of a higher clustering coefficient and complexity of the network. Hence, the complex properties of the multivariate transfer entropy network may provide early warning signals of increasing systematic risk in turbulence times of the cryptocurrency markets.

Systemic Importance of China's Financial Institutions: A Jump Volatility Spillover Network Review

The investigation of the systemic importance of financial institutions (SIFIs) has become a hot topic in the field of financial risk management. By making full use of 5-min high-frequency data, and with the help of the method of entropy weight technique for order preference by similarities to ideal solution (TOPSIS), this paper builds jump volatility spillover network of China’s financial institutions to measure the SIFIs. We find that: (i) state-owned depositories and large insurers display SIFIs according to the score of entropy weight TOPSIS; (ii) total connectedness of financial institution networks reveal that Industrial Bank, Ping An Bank and Pacific Securities play an important role when financial market is under pressure, especially during the subprime crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and China’s stock market disaster; (iii) an interesting finding shows that some small financial institutions are also SIFIs during the financial crisis and cannot be ignored.

A Quantum-Inspired Similarity Measure for the Analysis of Complete Weighted Graphs

We develop a novel method for measuring the similarity between complete weighted graphs, which are probed by means of the discrete-time quantum walks. Directly probing complete graphs using discrete-time quantum walks is intractable due to the cost of simulating the quantum walk. We overcome this problem by extracting a commute time minimum spanning tree from the complete weighted graph. The spanning tree is probed by a discrete-time quantum walk which is initialized using a weighted version of the Perron-Frobenius operator. This naturally encapsulates the edge weight information for the spanning tree extracted from the original graph. For each pair of complete weighted graphs to be compared, we simulate a discrete-time quantum walk on each of the corresponding commute time minimum spanning trees and, then, compute the associated density matrices for the quantum walks. The probability of the walk visiting each edge of the spanning tree is given by the diagonal elements of the density matrices. The similarity between each pair of graphs is then computed using either: 1) the inner product or 2) the negative exponential of the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the probability distributions. We show that in both cases the resulting similarity measure is positive definite and, therefore, corresponds to a kernel on the graphs. We perform a series of experiments on publicly available graph datasets from a variety of different domains, together with time-varying financial networks extracted from data for the New York Stock Exchange. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed similarity measures.

Information Transfer between Stock Market Sectors: A Comparison between the USA and China

Information diffusion within financial markets plays a crucial role in the process of price formation and the propagation of sentiment and risk. We perform a comparative analysis of information transfer between industry sectors of the Chinese and the USA stock markets, using daily sector indices for the period from 2000 to 2017. The information flow from one sector to another is measured by the transfer entropy of the daily returns of the two sector indices. We find that the most active sector in information exchange (i.e., the largest total information inflow and outflow) is the non-bank financial sector in the Chinese market and the technology sector in the USA market. This is consistent with the role of the non-bank sector in corporate financing in China and the impact of technological innovation in the USA. In each market, the most active sector is also the largest information sink that has the largest information inflow (i.e., inflow minus outflow). In contrast, we identify that the main information source is the bank sector in the Chinese market and the energy sector in the USA market. In the case of China, this is due to the importance of net bank lending as a signal of corporate activity and the role of energy pricing in affecting corporate profitability. There are sectors such as the real estate sector that could be an information sink in one market but an information source in the other, showing the complex behavior of different markets. Overall, these findings show that stock markets are more synchronized, or ordered, during periods of turmoil than during periods of stability.

Learning in Feedforward Neural Networks Accelerated by Transfer Entropy

Current neural networks architectures are many times harder to train because of the increasing size and complexity of the used datasets. Our objective is to design more efficient training algorithms utilizing causal relationships inferred from neural networks. The transfer entropy (TE) was initially introduced as an information transfer measure used to quantify the statistical coherence between events (time series). Later, it was related to causality, even if they are not the same. There are only few papers reporting applications of causality or TE in neural networks. Our contribution is an information-theoretical method for analyzing information transfer between the nodes of feedforward neural networks. The information transfer is measured by the TE of feedback neural connections. Intuitively, TE measures the relevance of a connection in the network and the feedback amplifies this connection. We introduce a backpropagation type training algorithm that uses TE feedback connections to improve its performance.

Transfer entropy as a variable selection methodology of cryptocurrencies in the framework of a high dimensional predictive model

We determine the number of statistically significant factors in a high dimensional predictive model of cryptocurrencies using a random matrix test. The applied predictive model is of the reduced rank regression (RRR) type; in particular, we choose a flavor that can be regarded as canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A variable selection of hourly cryptocurrencies is performed using the Symbolic estimation of Transfer Entropy (STE) measure from information theory. In simulated studies, STE shows better performance compared to the Granger causality approach when considering a nonlinear system and a linear system with many drivers. In the application to cryptocurrencies, the directed graph associated to the variable selection shows a robust pattern of predictor and response clusters, where the community detection was contrasted with the modularity approach. Also, the centralities of the network discriminate between the two main types of cryptocurrencies, i.e., coins and tokens. On the factor determination of the predictive model, the result supports retaining more factors contrary to the usual visual inspection, with the additional advantage that the subjective element is avoided. In particular, it is observed that the dynamic behavior of the number of factors is moderately anticorrelated with the dynamics of the constructed composite index of predictor and response cryptocurrencies. This finding opens up new insights for anticipating possible declines in cryptocurrency prices on exchanges. Furthermore, our study suggests the existence of specific-predictor and specific-response factors, where only a small number of currencies are predominant.

Information Flow between Bitcoin and Other Investment Assets

This paper studies the causal relationship between Bitcoin and other investment assets. We first test Granger causality and then calculate transfer entropy as an information-theoretic approach. Unlike the Granger causality test, we discover that transfer entropy clearly identifies causal interdependency between Bitcoin and other assets, including gold, stocks, and the U.S. dollar. However, for symbolic transfer entropy, the dynamic rise–fall pattern in return series shows an asymmetric information flow from other assets to Bitcoin. Our results imply that the Bitcoin market actively interacts with major asset markets, and its long-term equilibrium, as a nascent market, gradually synchronizes with that of other investment assets.

Adaptive symbolic transfer entropy and its applications in modeling for complex industrial systems

Directed coupling between variables is the foundation of studying the dynamical behavior of complex systems. We propose an adaptive symbolic transfer entropy (ASTE) method based on the principle of equal probability division. First, the adaptive kernel density method is used to obtain an accurate probability density function for an observation series. Second, the complete phase space of the system can be obtained by using the multivariable phase space reconstruction method. This provides common parameters for symbolizing a time series, including delay time and embedding dimension. Third, an optimization strategy is used to select the appropriate symbolic parameters of a time series, such as the symbol set and partition intervals, which can be used to convert the time series to a symbol sequence. Then the transfer entropy between the symbolic sequences can be carried out. Finally, the proposed method is analyzed and validated using the chaotic Lorenz system and typical complex industrial systems. The results show that the ASTE method is superior to the existing transfer entropy and symbolic transfer entropy methods in terms of measurement accuracy and noise resistance, and it can be applied to the network modeling and performance safety analysis of complex industrial systems.

The Impact of Financial and Macroeconomic Shocks on the Entropy of Financial Markets

We propose here a method to analyze whether financial and macroeconomic shocks influence the entropy of financial networks. We derive a measure of entropy using the correlation matrix of the stock market components of the DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. Using VAR models in different specifications, we show that shocks in production or the DJIA index lead to an increase in the entropy of the financial markets.

Structural Change and Dynamics of Pakistan Stock Market during Crisis: A Complex Network Perspective

We studied the cross-correlations in the daily closing prices of 181 stocks listed on the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX) covering a time period of 2007–2017 to compute the threshold networks and minimum spanning trees. In addition to the full sample analysis, our study uses three subsamples to examine the structural change and topological evolution before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2008. We also apply Shannon entropy on the overall sample to measure the volatility of individual stocks. Our results find substantial clustering and a crisis-like less stable overall market structure, given the external and internal events of terrorism, political, financial, and economic crisis for Pakistan. The subsample results further reveal hierarchal scale-free structures and a reconfigured metastable market structure during a postcrisis period. In addition, time varying topological measures confirm the evidence of the presence of several star-like structures, the shrinkage of tree length due to crisis-related shocks, and an expansion in the recovery phase. Finally, changes of the central node of minimum spanning trees (MSTs), the volatile stock recognition using Shannon entropy, and the topology of threshold networks will help local and international investors of Pakistan Stock Exchange limited (PSX) to manage their portfolios or regulators to monitor the important nodes to achieve stability and to predict an upcoming crisis.

New perspectives in the study of the Earth's magnetic field and climate connection: The use of transfer entropy

The debated question on the possible relation between the Earth's magnetic field and climate has been usually focused on direct correlations between different time series representing both systems. However, the physical mechanism able to potentially explain this connection is still an open issue. Finding hints about how this connection could work would suppose an important advance in the search of an adequate physical mechanism. Here, we propose an innovative information-theoretic tool, i.e. the transfer entropy, as a good candidate for this scope because is able to determine, not simply the possible existence of a connection, but even the direction in which the link is produced. We have applied this new methodology to two real time series, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) area extent at the Earth's surface (representing the geomagnetic field system) and the Global Sea Level (GSL) rise (for the climate system) for the last 300 years, to measure the possible information flow and sense between them. This connection was previously suggested considering only the long-term trend while now we study this possibility also in shorter scales. The new results seem to support this hypothesis, with more information transferred from the SAA to the GSL time series, with about 90% of confidence level. This result provides new clues on the existence of a link between the geomagnetic field and the Earth's climate in the past and on the physical mechanism involved because, thanks to the application of the transfer entropy, we have determined that the sense of the connection seems to go from the system that produces geomagnetic field to the climate system. Of course, the connection does not mean that the geomagnetic field is fully responsible for the climate changes, rather that it is an important driving component to the variations of the climate.

Inference of time-varying networks through transfer entropy, the case of a Boolean network model

Inferring network topologies from the time series of individual units is of paramount importance in the study of biological and social networks. Despite considerable progress, our success in network inference is largely limited to static networks and autonomous node dynamics, which are often inadequate to describe complex systems. Here, we explore the possibility of reconstructing time-varying weighted topologies through the information-theoretic notion of transfer entropy. We focus on a Boolean network model in which the weight of the links and the spontaneous activity periodically vary in time. For slowly-varying dynamics, we establish closed-form expressions for the stationary periodic distribution and transfer entropy between each pair of nodes. Our results indicate that the instantaneous weight of each link is mapped into a corresponding transfer entropy value, thereby affording the possibility of pinpointing the dominant weights at each time. However, comparing transfer entropy readings at different times may provide erroneous estimates of the strength of the links in time, due to a counterintuitive modulation of the information flow by the non-autonomous dynamics. In fact, this time variation should be used to scale transfer entropy values toward the correct inference of the time evolution of the network weights. This study constitutes a necessary step toward a mathematically-principled use of transfer entropy to reconstruct time-varying networks.

Cross-Sectoral Information Transfer in the Chinese Stock Market around Its Crash in 2015

This paper applies effective transfer entropy to research the information transfer in the Chinese stock market around its crash in 2015. According to the market states, the entire period is divided into four sub-phases: the tranquil, bull, crash, and post-crash periods. Kernel density estimation is used to calculate the effective transfer entropy. Then, the information transfer network is constructed. Nodes’ centralities and the directed maximum spanning trees of the networks are analyzed. The results show that, in the tranquil period, the information transfer is weak in the market. In the bull period, the strength and scope of the information transfer increases. The utility sector outputs a great deal of information and is the hub node for the information flow. In the crash period, the information transfer grows further. The market efficiency in this period is worse than that in the other three sub-periods. The information technology sector is the biggest information source, while the consumer staples sector receives the most information. The interactions of the sectors become more direct. In the post-crash period, information transfer declines but is still stronger than the tranquil time. The financial sector receives the largest amount of information and is the pivot node.

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems-it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

Introduction to Focus Issue: Causation inference and information flow in dynamical systems: Theory and applications

Questions of causation are foundational across science and often relate further to problems of control, policy decisions, and forecasts. In nonlinear dynamics and complex systems science, causation inference and information flow are closely related concepts, whereby "information" or knowledge of certain states can be thought of as coupling influence onto the future states of other processes in a complex system. While causation inference and information flow are by now classical topics, incorporating methods from statistics and time series analysis, information theory, dynamical systems, and statistical mechanics, to name a few, there remain important advancements in continuing to strengthen the theory, and pushing the context of applications, especially with the ever-increasing abundance of data collected across many fields and systems. This Focus Issue considers different aspects of these questions, both in terms of founding theory and several topical applications.

Modeling the Comovement of Entropy between Financial Markets

In this paper, I propose a methodology to study the comovement between the entropy of different financial markets. The entropy is derived using singular value decomposition of the components of stock market indices in financial markets from selected developed economies, i.e., France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. I study how a shock in the entropy in the United States affects the entropy in the other financial markets. I also model the entropy using a dynamic factor model and derive a common factor behind the entropy movements in these four markets.

Inferring influence and leadership in moving animal groups

Collective decision-making is a daily occurrence in the lives of many group-living animals, and can have critical consequences for the fitness of individuals. Understanding how decisions are reached, including who has influence and the mechanisms by which information and preferences are integrated, has posed a fundamental challenge. Here, we provide a methodological framework for studying influence and leadership in groups. We propose that individuals have influence if their actions result in some behavioural change among their group-mates, and are leaders if they consistently influence others. We highlight three components of influence (influence instances, total influence and consistency of influence), which can be assessed at two levels (individual-to-individual and individual-to-group). We then review different methods, ranging from individual positioning within groups to information-theoretic approaches, by which influence has been operationally defined in empirical studies, as well as how such observations can be aggregated to give insight into the underlying decision-making process. We focus on the domain of collective movement, with a particular emphasis on methods that have recently been, or are being, developed to take advantage of simultaneous tracking data. We aim to provide a resource bringing together methodological tools currently available for studying leadership in moving animal groups, as well as to discuss the limitations of current methodologies and suggest productive avenues for future research.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'.

Transfer Information Energy: A Quantitative Indicator of Information Transfer between Time Series

We introduce an information-theoretical approach for analyzing information transfer between time series. Rather than using the Transfer Entropy (TE), we define and apply the Transfer Information Energy (TIE), which is based on Onicescu’s Information Energy. Whereas the TE can be used as a measure of the reduction in uncertainty about one time series given another, the TIE may be viewed as a measure of the increase in certainty about one time series given another. We compare the TIE and the TE in two known time series prediction applications. First, we analyze stock market indexes from the Americas, Asia/Pacific and Europe, with the goal to infer the information transfer between them (i.e., how they influence each other). In the second application, we take a bivariate time series of the breath rate and instantaneous heart rate of a sleeping human suffering from sleep apnea, with the goal to determine the information transfer heart → breath vs. breath → heart. In both applications, the computed TE and TIE values are strongly correlated, meaning that the TIE can substitute the TE for such applications, even if they measure symmetric phenomena. The advantage of using the TIE is computational: we can obtain similar results, but faster.

Transductive Feature Selection Using Clustering-Based Sample Entropy for Temperature Prediction in Weather Forecasting

Entropy measures have been a major interest of researchers to measure the information content of a dynamical system. One of the well-known methodologies is sample entropy, which is a model-free approach and can be deployed to measure the information transfer in time series. Sample entropy is based on the conditional entropy where a major concern is the number of past delays in the conditional term. In this study, we deploy a lag-specific conditional entropy to identify the informative past values. Moreover, considering the seasonality structure of data, we propose a clustering-based sample entropy to exploit the temporal information. Clustering-based sample entropy is based on the sample entropy definition while considering the clustering information of the training data and the membership of the test point to the clusters. In this study, we utilize the proposed method for transductive feature selection in black-box weather forecasting and conduct the experiments on minimum and maximum temperature prediction in Brussels for 1-6 days ahead. The results reveal that considering the local structure of the data can improve the feature selection performance. In addition, despite the large reduction in the number of features, the performance is competitive with the case of using all features.

Minimising the Kullback-Leibler Divergence for Model Selection in Distributed Nonlinear Systems

The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is a fundamental measure of information geometry that is used in a variety of contexts in artificial intelligence. We show that, when system dynamics are given by distributed nonlinear systems, this measure can be decomposed as a function of two information-theoretic measures, transfer entropy and stochastic interaction. More specifically, these measures are applicable when selecting a candidate model for a distributed system, where individual subsystems are coupled via latent variables and observed through a filter. We represent this model as a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that characterises the unidirectional coupling between subsystems. Standard approaches to structure learning are not applicable in this framework due to the hidden variables; however, we can exploit the properties of certain dynamical systems to formulate exact methods based on differential topology. We approach the problem by using reconstruction theorems to derive an analytical expression for the KL divergence of a candidate DAG from the observed dataset. Using this result, we present a scoring function based on transfer entropy to be used as a subroutine in a structure learning algorithm. We then demonstrate its use in recovering the structure of coupled Lorenz and Rössler systems.

Study of the cross-market effects of Brexit based on the improved symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model-An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations

In this paper, we study the cross-market effects of Brexit on the stock and bond markets of nine major countries in the world. By incorporating information theory, we introduce the time-varying impact weights based on symbolic transfer entropy to improve the traditional GARCH model. The empirical results show that under the influence of Brexit, flight-to-quality not only commonly occurs between the stocks and bonds of each country but also simultaneously occurs among different countries. We also find that the accuracy of the time-varying symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model proposed in this paper has been improved compared to the traditional GARCH model, which indicates that it has a certain practical application value.

Information theory and robotics meet to study predator-prey interactions

Transfer entropy holds promise to advance our understanding of animal behavior, by affording the identification of causal relationships that underlie animal interactions. A critical step toward the reliable implementation of this powerful information-theoretic concept entails the design of experiments in which causal relationships could be systematically controlled. Here, we put forward a robotics-based experimental approach to test the validity of transfer entropy in the study of predator-prey interactions. We investigate the behavioral response of zebrafish to a fear-evoking robotic stimulus, designed after the morpho-physiology of the red tiger oscar and actuated along preprogrammed trajectories. From the time series of the positions of the zebrafish and the robotic stimulus, we demonstrate that transfer entropy correctly identifies the influence of the stimulus on the focal subject. Building on this evidence, we apply transfer entropy to study the interactions between zebrafish and a live red tiger oscar. The analysis of transfer entropy reveals a change in the direction of the information flow, suggesting a mutual influence between the predator and the prey, where the predator adapts its strategy as a function of the movement of the prey, which, in turn, adjusts its escape as a function of the predator motion. Through the integration of information theory and robotics, this study posits a new approach to study predator-prey interactions in freshwater fish.

Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank

We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of the DebtRank algorithm, recently introduced in the literature. The mechanics of distress propagation is very simple: When a bank suffers a loss, distress propagates to its creditors, who in turn suffer losses, and so on. The original DebtRank assumes that losses are propagated linearly between connected banks. Here we relax this assumption and introduce a one-parameter family of non-linear propagation functions. As a case study, we apply this algorithm to a data-set of 183 European banks, and we study how the stability of the system depends on the non-linearity parameter under different stress-test scenarios. We find that the system is characterized by a transition between a regime where small shocks can be amplified and a regime where shocks do not propagate, and that the overall stability of the system increases between 2008 and 2013.

Dependency Relations among International Stock Market Indices

We develop networks of international stock market indices using information and correlation based measures. We use 83 stock market indices of a diversity of countries, as well as their single day lagged values, to probe the correlation and the flow of information from one stock index to another taking into account different operating hours. Additionally, we apply the formalism of partial correlations to build the dependency network of the data, and calculate the partial Transfer Entropy to quantify the indirect influence that indices have on one another. We find that Transfer Entropy is an effective way to quantify the flow of information between indices, and that a high degree of information flow between indices lagged by one day coincides to same day correlation between them.