A Pragmatic Ensemble Strategy for Missing Values Imputation in Health Records

A novel hybrid supervised and unsupervised hierarchical ensemble for COVID-19 cases and mortality prediction

Though COVID-19 is no longer a pandemic but rather an endemic, the epidemiological situation related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is developing at an alarming rate, impacting every corner of the world. The rapid escalation of the coronavirus has led to the scientific community engagement, continually seeking solutions to ensure the comfort and safety of society. Understanding the joint impact of medical and non-medical interventions on COVID-19 spread is essential for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. This paper introduces two novel hybrid machine-learning ensembles that combine supervised and unsupervised learning for COVID-19 data classification and regression. The study utilizes publicly available COVID-19 outbreak and potential predictive features in the USA dataset, which provides information related to the outbreak of COVID-19 disease in the US, including data from each of 3142 US counties from the beginning of the epidemic (January 2020) until June 2021. The developed hybrid hierarchical classifiers outperform single classification algorithms. The best-achieved performance metrics for the classification task were Accuracy = 0.912, ROC-AUC = 0.916, and F1-score = 0.916. The proposed hybrid hierarchical ensemble combining both supervised and unsupervised learning allows us to increase the accuracy of the regression task by 11% in terms of MSE, 29% in terms of the area under the ROC, and 43% in terms of the MPP metric. Thus, using the proposed approach, it is possible to predict the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths based on demographic, geographic, climatic, traffic, public health, social-distancing-policy adherence, and political characteristics with sufficiently high accuracy. The study reveals that virus pressure is the most important feature in COVID-19 spread for classification and regression analysis. Five other significant features were identified to have the most influence on COVID-19 spread. The combined ensembling approach introduced in this study can help policymakers design prevention and control measures to avoid or minimize public health threats in the future.

A Machine Learning Framework for Diagnosing and Predicting the Severity of Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Although machine learning (ML)-based prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) has gained increasing attention, assessment of the severity of suspected CAD in symptomatic patients remains challenging.

Methods

The training set for this study consisted of 284 retrospective participants, while the test set included 116 prospectively enrolled participants from whom we collected 53 baseline variables and coronary angiography results. The data was pre-processed with outlier processing and One-Hot coding. In the first stage, we constructed a ML model that used baseline information to predict the presence of CAD with a dichotomous model. In the second stage, baseline information was used to construct ML regression models for predicting the severity of CAD. The non-CAD population was included, and two different scores were used as output variables. Finally, statistical analysis and SHAP plot visualization methods were employed to explore the relationship between baseline information and CAD.

Results

The study included 269 CAD patients and 131 healthy controls. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model exhibited the best performance amongst the different models for predicting CAD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.728 (95% CI 0.623-0.824). The main correlates were left ventricular ejection fraction, homocysteine, and hemoglobin (p < 0.001). The XGBoost model performed best for predicting the SYNTAX score, with the main correlates being brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), left ventricular ejection fraction, and glycated hemoglobin (p < 0.001). The main relevant features in the model predictive for the GENSINI score were BNP, high density lipoprotein, and homocysteine (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

This data-driven approach provides a foundation for the risk stratification and severity assessment of CAD.

Clinical Trial Registration

The study was registered in www.clinicaltrials.gov protocol registration system (number NCT05018715).

New Classification Method for Independent Data Sources Using Pawlak Conflict Model and Decision Trees

The research concerns data collected in independent sets-more specifically, in local decision tables. A possible approach to managing these data is to build local classifiers based on each table individually. In the literature, many approaches toward combining the final prediction results of independent classifiers can be found, but insufficient efforts have been made on the study of tables' cooperation and coalitions' formation. The importance of such an approach was expected on two levels. First, the impact on the quality of classification-the ability to build combined classifiers for coalitions of tables should allow for the learning of more generalized concepts. In turn, this should have an impact on the quality of classification of new objects. Second, combining tables into coalitions will result in reduced computational complexity-a reduced number of classifiers will be built. The paper proposes a new method for creating coalitions of local tables and generating an aggregated classifier for each coalition. Coalitions are generated by determining certain characteristics of attribute values occurring in local tables and applying the Pawlak conflict analysis model. In the study, the classification and regression trees with Gini index are built based on the aggregated table for one coalition. The system bears a hierarchical structure, as in the next stage the decisions generated by the classifiers for coalitions are aggregated using majority voting. The classification quality of the proposed system was compared with an approach that does not use local data cooperation and coalition creation. The structure of the system is parallel and decision trees are built independently for local tables. In the paper, it was shown that the proposed approach provides a significant improvement in classification quality and execution time. The Wilcoxon test confirmed that differences in accuracy rate of the results obtained for the proposed method and results obtained without coalitions are significant, with a p level = 0.005. The average accuracy rate values obtained for the proposed approach and the approach without coalitions are, respectively: 0.847 and 0.812; so the difference is quite large. Moreover, the algorithm implementing the proposed approach performed up to 21-times faster than the algorithm implementing the approach without using coalitions.

An Intelligent Sensor Based Decision Support System for Diagnosing Pulmonary Ailment through Standardized Chest X-ray Scans

Academics and the health community are paying much attention to developing smart remote patient monitoring, sensors, and healthcare technology. For the analysis of medical scans, various studies integrate sophisticated deep learning strategies. A smart monitoring system is needed as a proactive diagnostic solution that may be employed in an epidemiological scenario such as COVID-19. Consequently, this work offers an intelligent medicare system that is an IoT-empowered, deep learning-based decision support system (DSS) for the automated detection and categorization of infectious diseases (COVID-19 and pneumothorax). The proposed DSS system was evaluated using three independent standard-based chest X-ray scans. The suggested DSS predictor has been used to identify and classify areas on whole X-ray scans with abnormalities thought to be attributable to COVID-19, reaching an identification and classification accuracy rate of 89.58% for normal images and 89.13% for COVID-19 and pneumothorax. With the suggested DSS system, a judgment depending on individual chest X-ray scans may be made in approximately 0.01 s. As a result, the DSS system described in this study can forecast at a pace of 95 frames per second (FPS) for both models, which is near to real-time.