Vitanov NK, Vitanov KN. Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics.
ENTROPY (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023;
25:438. [PMID:
36981326 PMCID:
PMC10048198 DOI:
10.3390/e25030438]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2023] [Revised: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The SIR model of epidemic spreading can be reduced to a nonlinear differential equation with an exponential nonlinearity. This differential equation can be approximated by a sequence of nonlinear differential equations with polynomial nonlinearities. The equations from the obtained sequence are treated by the Simple Equations Method (SEsM). This allows us to obtain exact solutions to some of these equations. We discuss several of these solutions. Some (but not all) of the obtained exact solutions can be used for the description of the evolution of epidemic waves. We discuss this connection. In addition, we use two of the obtained solutions to study the evolution of two of the COVID-19 epidemic waves in Bulgaria by a comparison of the solutions with the available data for the infected individuals.
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