Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan

Societal knowledge, attitude, and practices towards dengue and associated factors in epidemic-hit areas: Geoinformation assisted empirical evidence

Dengue is one of Pakistan's major health concerns. In this study, we aimed to advance our understanding of the levels of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) in Pakistan's Dengue Fever (DF) hotspots. Initially, at-risk communities were systematically identified via a well-known spatial modeling technique, named, Kernel Density Estimation, which was later targeted for a household-based cross-sectional survey of KAPs. To collect data on sociodemographic and KAPs, random sampling was utilized (n = 385, 5 % margin of error). Later, the association of different demographics (characteristics), knowledge, and attitude factors-potentially related to poor preventive practices was assessed using bivariate (individual) and multivariable (model) logistic regression analyses. Most respondents (>90 %) identified fever as a sign of DF; headache (73.8 %), joint pain (64.4 %), muscular pain (50.9 %), pain behind the eyes (41.8 %), bleeding (34.3 %), and skin rash (36.1 %) were identified relatively less. Regression results showed significant associations of poor knowledge/attitude with poor preventive practices; dengue vector (odds ratio [OR] = 3.733, 95 % confidence interval [CI ] = 2.377-5.861; P < 0.001), DF symptoms (OR = 3.088, 95 % CI = 1.949-4.894; P < 0.001), dengue transmission (OR = 1.933, 95 % CI = 1.265-2.956; P = 0.002), and attitude (OR = 3.813, 95 % CI = 1.548-9.395; P = 0.004). Moreover, education level was stronger in bivariate analysis and the strongest independent factor of poor preventive practices in multivariable analysis (illiterate: adjusted OR = 6.833, 95 % CI = 2.979-15.672; P < 0.001) and primary education (adjusted OR = 4.046, 95 % CI = 1.997-8.199; P < 0.001). This situation highlights knowledge gaps within urban communities, particularly in understanding dengue transmission and signs/symptoms. The level of education in urban communities also plays a substantial role in dengue control, as observed in this study, where poor preventive practices were more prevalent among illiterate and less educated respondents.

Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan

Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.

Relationship between Urban Environmental Components and Dengue Prevalence in Dhaka City-An Approach of Spatial Analysis of Satellite Remote Sensing, Hydro-Climatic, and Census Dengue Data

Dengue fever is a tropical viral disease mostly spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito across the globe. Each year, millions of people have dengue fever, and many die as a result. Since 2002, the severity of dengue in Bangladesh has increased, and in 2019, it reached its worst level ever. This research used satellite imagery to determine the spatial relationship between urban environmental components (UEC) and dengue incidence in Dhaka in 2019. Land surface temperature (LST), urban heat-island (UHI), land-use-land-cover (LULC), population census, and dengue patient data were evaluated. On the other hand, the temporal association between dengue and 2019 UEC data for Dhaka city, such as precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature, were explored. The calculation indicates that the LST in the research region varies between 21.59 and 33.33 degrees Celsius. Multiple UHIs are present within the city, with LST values ranging from 27 to 32 degrees Celsius. In 2019, these UHIs had a higher incidence of dengue. NDVI values between 0.18 and 1 indicate the presence of vegetation and plants, and the NDWI identifies waterbodies with values between 0 and 1. About 2.51%, 2.66%, 12.81%, and 82% of the city is comprised of water, bare ground, vegetation, and settlement, respectively. The kernel density estimate of dengue data reveals that the majority of dengue cases were concentrated in the city's north edge, south, north-west, and center. The dengue risk map was created by combining all of these spatial outputs (LST, UHI, LULC, population density, and dengue data) and revealed that UHIs of Dhaka are places with high ground temperature and lesser vegetation, waterbodies, and dense urban characteristics, with the highest incidence of dengue. The average yearly temperature in 2019 was 25.26 degrees Celsius. May was the warmest month, with an average monthly temperature of 28.83 degrees Celsius. The monsoon and post-monsoon seasons (middle of March to middle of September) of 2019 sustained higher ambient temperatures (>26 °C), greater relative humidity (>80%), and at least 150 mm of precipitation. The study reveals that dengue transmits faster under climatological circumstances characterized by higher temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation.

Engineering Modified mRNA-Based Vaccine against Dengue Virus Using Computational and Reverse Vaccinology Approaches

Dengue virus belonging to the family Flaviviridae and its four serotypes are responsible for dengue infections, which extend over 60 countries in tropical and subtropical areas of the world including Pakistan. During the ongoing dengue outbreak in Pakistan (2022), over 30,000 cases have been reported, and over 70 lives have been lost. The only commercialized vaccine against DENV, Dengvaxia, cannot be administered as a prophylactic measure to cure this infection due to various complications. Using machine learning and reverse vaccinology approaches, this study was designed to develop a tetravalent modified nucleotide mRNA vaccine using NS1, prM, and EIII sequences of dengue virus from Pakistani isolates. Based on high antigenicity, non-allergenicity, and toxicity profiling, B-cell epitope, cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL), and helper T lymphocyte (HTL) putative vaccine targets were predicted. Molecular docking confirmed favorable interactions between T-cell epitopes and their respective HLA alleles, while normal mode analysis validated high-affinity interactions of vaccine proteins with immune receptors. In silico immune simulations confirmed adequate immune responses to eliminate the antigen and generate memory. Codon optimization, physicochemical features, nucleotide modifications, and suitable vector availability further ensured better antigen expression and adaptive immune responses. We predict that this vaccine construct may prove to be a good vaccinal candidate against dengue virus in vitro as well.

Integrating Spatial Modelling and Space-Time Pattern Mining Analytics for Vector Disease-Related Health Perspectives: A Case of Dengue Fever in Pakistan

The spatial–temporal assessment of vector diseases is imperative to design effective action plans and establish preventive strategies. Therefore, such assessments have potential public health planning-related implications. In this context, we here propose an integrated spatial disease evaluation (I-SpaDE) framework. The I-SpaDE integrates various techniques such as the Kernel Density Estimation, the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis, space–time assessment and prediction, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). It makes it possible to systematically assess the disease concentrations, patterns/trends, clustering, prediction dynamics, and spatially varying relationships between disease and different associated factors. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the I-SpaDE, we apply it in the second largest city of Pakistan, namely Lahore, using Dengue Fever (DF) during 2007–2016 as an example vector disease. The most significant clustering is evident during the years 2007–2008, 2010–2011, 2013, and 2016. Mostly, the clusters are found within the city’s central functional area. The prediction analysis shows an inclination of DF distribution from less to more urbanized areas. The results from the GWR show that among various socio-ecological factors, the temperature is the most significantly associated with the DF followed by vegetation and built-up area. While the results are important to understand the DF situation in the study area and have useful implications for public health planning, the proposed framework is flexible, replicable, and robust to be utilized in other similar regions, particularly in developing countries in the tropics and sub-tropics.