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Luo J, Ma Y, Liu Y, Zhu D, Guo X. Predicting Polygonum capitatum distribution in China across climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. Sci Rep 2024; 14:20020. [PMID: 39198562 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-71104-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 08/26/2024] [Indexed: 09/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change affects the geographical distribution of species. Predicting the future potential areas suitable for certain species is of great significance for understanding their distribution characteristics and exerting their value. Based on the data of 276 effective distribution points of Polygonum capitatum and 20 ecological factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ArcGIS software were employed to predict the areas suitable for P. capitatum growth, and the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of this species were explored. Under the current climatic conditions, the areas highly suitable for P. capitatum are mainly distributed in southwestern China, with a small number of sites in coastal areas and most sites in Guizhou Province. Under different climate scenarios, the suitable areas were reduced to varying degrees. The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. capitatum were precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, and elevation, with a cumulative contribution rate of 84.1%. Against the background of a changing climate, the areas suitable for P. capitatum in China will be widely distributed in the southwestern region, with Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province as the main distribution areas; some sites will also be distributed throughout the southwest of Tibet Autonomous Region, the south of Sichuan Province, the north of Guangxi Autonomous Region, and the coastal area of Fujian Province. Optimal conditions for P. capitatum include a dry month precipitation range of 13.4 to 207.3 mm, elevations from 460.3 to 7214.3 m, and annual precipitation between 810 and 1575 mm. Given these insights, we recommend enhanced conservation efforts in current prime habitats and exploring potential cultivation in newly identified suitable regions to ensure the species' preservation and sustainable use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Luo
- Pharmacy Department, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, 550001, Guizhou, China
| | - Yunyang Ma
- School of Biological Sciences, Guizhou Education University, Guiyang, 550018, China
| | - Ying Liu
- School of Biological Sciences, Guizhou Education University, Guiyang, 550018, China.
| | - Duoping Zhu
- Institute of Ecology Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Xinzhao Guo
- Guizhou Institute of Forest Inventory and Planning, Guiyang, 550003, China.
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Yang H, Jiang N, Li C, Li J. Prediction of the Current and Future Distribution of Tomato Leafminer in China Using the MaxEnt Model. INSECTS 2023; 14:531. [PMID: 37367347 PMCID: PMC10299097 DOI: 10.3390/insects14060531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2023] [Revised: 06/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Tomato leafminer (Tuta absoluta), an important quarantine pest in China, was first detected in China in Yili, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in 2017. Its damage has grown in recent years, severely harming Solanaceae plants in China and causing enormous economic losses. The study and prediction of the current and future suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China can provide an important reference for the monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of the pest. Here, tomato leafminer's potential distributions in China under the current climate and four future climate models (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with ArcGIS software, and the accuracy of the prediction results was tested. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the models were all greater than 0.8, and the test omission rate of the model simulation results basically agreed with the theoretical omission rate, suggesting that the prediction results had satisfactory accuracy and reliability. Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China are mainly distributed in most of North China, most of East China, most of South China, most of Central China, most of Southwest China, some parts of Northeast China, and only a few parts of Northwest China. Annual mean temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution. The suitable habitats for tomato leafminer will shift under different future climate models: Under SSP1-26, the highly suitable habitats will spread to the north and northeast and to the southeast coastal areas; under SSP2-45, the size of highly suitable habitats will grow from the present to 2080 and shrink from 2081 to 2100; under SSP3-70, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards, but the highly suitable habitats in southeast coastal areas will shrink from 2081 to 2100 and turn into moderately suitable habitats. Under SSP5-85, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards and northwestwards, with the size of highly suitable habitats gradually decreasing and the size of moderately suitable habitats increasing. Different climates will lead to different distributions of suitable habitats for tomato leafminer, with annual mean temperature, isothermality, and mean diurnal range as the main environmental influences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hangxin Yang
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture & Forestry of the North-Western Desert Oasis, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China; (H.Y.); (N.J.)
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China
| | - Nanziying Jiang
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture & Forestry of the North-Western Desert Oasis, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China; (H.Y.); (N.J.)
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China
| | - Chao Li
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Invasive Alien Species in Agriculture & Forestry of the North-Western Desert Oasis, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Agronomy, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China; (H.Y.); (N.J.)
- Western Agricultural Research Center, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji 831100, China
| | - Jun Li
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China
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Filipe JC, Ahrens CC, Byrne M, Hardy G, Rymer PD. Germination temperature sensitivity differs between co-occurring tree species and climate origins resulting in contrasting vulnerability to global warming. PLANT-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS (HOBOKEN, N.J.) 2023; 4:146-162. [PMID: 37362420 PMCID: PMC10290426 DOI: 10.1002/pei3.10108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is shifting temperatures from historical patterns, globally impacting forest composition and resilience. Seed germination is temperature-sensitive, making the persistence of populations and colonization of available habitats vulnerable to warming. This study assessed germination response to temperature in foundation trees in south-western Australia's Mediterranean-type climate forests (Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah) and Corymbia calophylla (marri)) to estimate the thermal niche and vulnerability among populations. Seeds from the species' entire distribution were collected from 12 co-occurring populations. Germination thermal niche was investigated using a thermal gradient plate (5-40°C). Five constant temperatures between 9 and 33°C were used to test how the germination niche (1) differs between species, (2) varies among populations, and (3) relates to the climate of origin. Germination response differed among species; jarrah had a lower optimal temperature and thermal limit than marri (T o 15.3°C, 21.2°C; ED50 23.4°C, 31°C, respectively). The thermal limit for germination differed among populations within both species, yet only marri showed evidence for adaptation to thermal origins. While marri has the capacity for germination at higher thermal temperatures, jarrah is more vulnerable to global warming exceeding safety margins. This discrepancy is predicted to alter species distributions and forest composition in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- João C. Filipe
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsBiodiversity and Conservation SciencePerthWestern AustraliaAustralia
- Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityHarry Butler InstituteMurdoch UniversityMurdochWestern AustraliaAustralia
| | - Collin C. Ahrens
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney UniversityRichmondNew South WalesAustralia
- School of Biotechnology & Biomolecular SciencesUniversity of New South WalesSydneyNew South WalesAustralia
- Research Centre for Ecosystem ResilienceRoyal Botanic Gardens and Domain TrustSydneyNew South WalesAustralia
- Cesar AustraliaBrunswickVictoriaAustralia
| | - Margaret Byrne
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsBiodiversity and Conservation SciencePerthWestern AustraliaAustralia
| | - Giles Hardy
- Centre for Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityHarry Butler InstituteMurdoch UniversityMurdochWestern AustraliaAustralia
| | - Paul D. Rymer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney UniversityRichmondNew South WalesAustralia
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Hu Y, Zhang J, Huang J, Zhou M, Hu S. The biogeography of colonial volvocine algae in the Yangtze River basin. Front Microbiol 2023; 14:1078081. [PMID: 36778887 PMCID: PMC9910701 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1078081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 01/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Colonial Volvocine Algae (CVA) are of great significance for biological evolution study, but little is presently known about their biogeographic distribution. Meanwhile, with the impact of climate change and human activities, their effects on the distribution and structures of CVA communities also remain largely unknown. Herein, the biogeography of CVA was investigated in the Yangtze River basin, 172 sampling sites were set up within a catchment area of 1,800,000 km2, and the distribution and community composition of CVA were studied using single-molecule real-time sequencing and metabarcoding technology based on the full-length 18S sequence. In 76 sampling sites, CVA was discovered in two families, eight genera, and nine species. Eudorina and Colemanosphaera were the main dominant genus. Based on the result of the random forest model and Eta-squared value, the distribution of CVA was significantly influenced by water temperature, altitude, and TP. CVA could be suitably distributed at an average water temperature of 22°C, an average TP concentration of 0.06 mg/L, and an altitude lower than 3,920 m. To assess the effects of anthropogenic pollution on the structures and co-occurrence patterns of CVA communities, we used a stress index calculated by 10 environmental factors to divide the CVA community into low and high pollution group. Network analysis showed that greater pollution levels would have a negative impact on the co-occurrence patterns and diversity of the CVA community. Finally, to study the scientific distribution of CVA under current and future climate change scenarios, we analyzed the climate suitability regionalization of CVA with the maximum entropy model based on 19 climatic factors and four climate scenarios from 2021 to 2040 published by CMIP6. Our results reveal the suitable areas of CVA, and temperature is an important environmental factor affecting the distribution of CVA. With the change of climate in the future, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chaohu Lake, and Taihu Lake are still highly suitable areas for CVA, but the habitat of CVA may be fragmented, and more thorough temporal surveys and sampling of the sediment or mud are needed to investigate the fragmentation of CVA.
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Kimathi E, Mudereri BT, Abdel-Rahman EM, Niassy S, Tonnang HEZ, Landmann T. The possibilities of explicit Striga (Striga asiatica) risk monitoring using phenometric, edaphic, and climatic variables, demonstrated for Malawi and Zambia. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2022; 194:913. [PMID: 36255501 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10560-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Food insecurity continues to affect more than two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly those depending on rain-fed agriculture. Striga, a parasitic weed, has caused yield losses of cereal crops, immensely affecting smallholder farmers in SSA. Although earlier studies have established that Striga is a constraint to crop production, there is little information on the spatial extent of spread and infestation severity of the weed in some SSA countries like Malawi and Zambia. This study aimed to use remotely sensed vegetation phenological (n = 11), climatic (n = 3), and soil (n = 4) variables to develop a data-driven ecological niche model to estimate Striga (Striga asiatica) spatial distribution patterns over Malawi and Zambia, respectively. Vegetation phenological variables were calculated from 250-m enhanced vegetation index (EVI) timeline data, spanning 2013 to 2016. A multicollinearity test was performed on all 18 predictor variables using the variance inflation factor (VIF) and Pearson's correlation approach. From the initial 18 variables, 12 non-correlated predictor variables were selected to predict Striga risk zones over the two focus countries. The variable "start of the season" (start of the rainy season) showed the highest model relevance, contributing 26.8% and 37.9% to Striga risk models for Malawi and Zambia, respectively. This indicates that the crop planting date influences the occurrence and the level of Striga infestation. The resultant occurrence maps revealed interesting spatial patterns; while a very high Striga occurrence was predicted for central Malawi and eastern Zambia (mono-cultural maize growing areas), lower occurrence rates were found in the northern regions. Our study shows the possibilities of integrating various ecological factors with a better spatial and temporal resolution for operational and explicit monitoring of Striga-affected areas in SSA. The explicit identification of Striga "hotspot" areas is crucial for effectively informing intervention activities on the ground.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Kimathi
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya.
| | - Bester Tawona Mudereri
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Elfatih M Abdel-Rahman
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Saliou Niassy
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Henri E Z Tonnang
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Tobias Landmann
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
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Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide fluxes and its driving mechanism in the forests on the Tibetan Plateau. BIOCHEM SYST ECOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bse.2022.104451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Abstract
The applicability of reanalysis data has been widely addressed in climate and hydrology studies over the past two decades. In this study, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations in ERA-Interim temperature data from four climate zones within Gansu Province from 1979 to 2017 by using linear regression model and Mann-Kendall mutation test. Results showed that: (1) The highest temperature was found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, and the lowest in the plateau mountain climate zone. Temperatures in high-elevation regions were lower than those in low-elevation regions; (2) The annual mean temperature increased across Gansu Province from 1979 to 2017. The lowest warming rates of annual mean, annual maximum, and annual minimum temperatures were found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, and these were 0.334, 0.300, and 0.336 °C/10a, respectively. The highest warming rates of annual mean and annual minimum temperature were found in the temperate monsoon climate zone, and these were 0.420 and 0.464 °C/10a, respectively. The highest warming rate of annual maximum temperature was found in the temperate continental climate zone (0.471 °C/10a); (3) The Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the mutation times of annual mean temperature of the subtropical monsoon, temperate monsoon, and temperate continental climate zones in Gansu Province were all in 1997. The mutation times of annual maximum temperature were found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone (1997) and temperate monsoon climate zone (1997). The mutation times of annual minimum temperature were found in the temperate continental climate zone (1997) and plateau mountain climate zone (1994). ERA-Interim reanalysis data are reliable for capturing mutation time of temperature, especially in the high-elevation areas with rare meteorological station. This study can provide a reference when analyzing climate change at different climatic zones using reanalysis data.
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Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262540. [PMID: 35358194 PMCID: PMC8970525 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Accepted: 12/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources.
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Response of Vegetation Phenology to the Interaction of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Qilian Mountains. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14051248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Located at the junction between the continental climate region and marine climate region, the Qilian Mountains have experienced significant climate change. Vegetation phenology in the Qilian Mountains is sensitive to climate change. However, the response of vegetation phenology to temperature and precipitation change is still unclear, and the same is true for their interactions. First, we extracted grassland phenological parameters such as SOS (the start of the growing season), EOS (the end of the growing season), and LOS (the length of the growing season) from revised MODIS-NDVI data in the Qilian Mountains during the period from 2000 to 2019. Second, we analyzed change trends of the phenological parameters, temperature, and precipitation. Furthermore, the effects of each meteorological element changes and their interaction on multiple phenological parameters were detected using the GeoDetector method. The result implied that (1) the SOS in most areas except the northwestern mountain region showed an advanced trend (10 d/10a); the EOS showed a delayed trend in the southeast (5 d/10a), and an advanced trend (5 d/10a) in the northwest; the LOS showed an extended trend (10 d/10a) in the southeast, and a shortened trend (5 d/10a) in the northwest. (2) Compared with a single meteorological element in a single period, the interaction of temperature and precipitation in different periods had a higher impact on grassland phenology, with the maximum q-value increasing by about 0.4 for each phenological parameter. (3) The change in the grassland phenology in the Qilian Mountains was inconsistently complete with climate change in the spatial distribution. Our research reveals the response of grassland phenology to the interaction of different meteorological elements in different periods. Compared with a single element, this can reflect the response of vegetation phenology to climate change more comprehensively.
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Wu Y, Wang S, Zang F, Nan Z, Zhao C, Li Y, Yang Q. Composition, environmental implication and source identification of elements in soil and moss from a pristine spruce forest ecosystem, Northwest China. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2022; 44:829-845. [PMID: 34061304 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-021-00984-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The environmental quality of remote alpine ecosystem has been drawn increasing attention owing to the increasingly severe atmospheric pollution. This study investigated the composition and sources of elements in the soil and moss collected from a pristine spruce forest in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China. The order of mean concentrations of elements investigated in soil was Fe > K > Na > Mg > Ca > Mn > Cr > Zn > Pb > Ni > Cu > As > Cd > Hg, and that of moss was Ca > Fe > Mg > K > Na > Mn > Cr > Zn > Pb > Ni > Cu > As > Cd > Hg. The concentrations of trace metals (except for As) in soil were greater than the soil background values, with Pb contamination more serious than the other elements. The Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI) values indicated that the soils were heavily polluted by Pb, Cd and Ni. The potential ecological risk index (PERI) suggested that the soils were at moderate risk. In particular, Hg and Cd were the most critically potential factors for ecological risk. According to the bioaccumulation factors (BAF), the accumulated concentrations of Ca, Hg, Cd, Pb, Ni, Mg, Cr and Zn in moss were higher than those in soil. By performing the multivariate analyses, natural sources (airborne soil particles) were identified to be the major contributors for all elements, whereas anthropogenic sources also contributed to the accumulations of Pb and Cd in the soil and moss in this region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Wu
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Shengli Wang
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Fei Zang
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhongren Nan
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Chuanyan Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yueyue Li
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
| | - Qianfang Yang
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China
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Wouyou HG, Lokonon BE, Idohou R, Zossou-Akete AG, Assogbadjo AE, Glèlè Kakaï R. Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered Caesalpinia bonduc (L.) Roxb in Benin (West Africa). Heliyon 2022; 8:e09022. [PMID: 35252617 PMCID: PMC8891960 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Caesalpinia bonduc (L.) Roxb is a medicinal plant with high therapeutic values but declared extinct in the wild in Benin. This study explored the potential distribution and climatic suitability of the species under the present-day and future conditions in Benin, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at the 2055-time horizon. The occurrence data were recorded in the distribution area of the species in Benin. These data were supplemented with those from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, www.gbif.org) website and the literature. A total of 23 environmental variables (15 bioclimatic data and 8 biophysical data) were used. The Bioclimatic variables for temperature and humidity were downloaded from Africlim site at 1 km resolution. The biophysical variables concern population, elevation, slope, landcover, wetland, distance to river, soil and distance to dwellings data that are downloaded respectively from DIVA-GIS, ISRIC and SEDAC website at different resolution. A correlation test has been applied to eliminate the highly correlated variables (r ≥ 0.9) using Pearson correlation coefficient. Species distribution modelling data were processed using five algorithms namely Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Maximum entropy (MAXENT), Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results showed that all models performed well with the area under the curve (AUC) values greater than 0.9. The RF, GLM, and GAM models predicted an increase in the suitable areas for the cultivation of the species. BRT and MaxEnt showed a substantial decrease in the suitable areas based on the two scenarios but this reduction is more observed with the MaxEnt model. These results show that climate change and human pressures will have significant effects on the distribution of C. bonduc throughout Benin. Sustainable management measures are necessary for C. bonduc and should be integrated in development policies to preserve the population of the species from total extinction in Benin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyacinthe Gbètoyénonmon Wouyou
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin
| | - Bruno Enagnon Lokonon
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin
- Corresponding author.
| | - Rodrigue Idohou
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin
- Ecole de Gestion et de Production Végétale et Semencière, Université Nationale d’Agriculture, BP 43 Kétou, Benin
| | - Alban Gandonou Zossou-Akete
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin
| | - Achille Ephrem Assogbadjo
- Laboratory of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 526 Cotonou, Benin
| | - Romain Glèlè Kakaï
- Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d’Estimations Forestières, Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, 04 BP 1525, Cotonou, Benin
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Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distribution Areas for Prunus tomentosa in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model. FORESTS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/f13030381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Prunus tomentosa (Thunb.) Wall has high nutritional value and medicinal effects. It is widespread in China; however, most plants growing in the wild are near extinction in many places. Predicting the potential distribution of P. tomentosa under climate change is helpful for cultivating and protecting wild germplasm resources. We used two general circulation models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict P. tomentosa’s present and future geographical distribution. A total of 137 distribution data points and 19 bioclimatic variables were imported into the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The optimal parameter combination (feature class LQHPT, regularized multiplier 3.0) was selected with corrected Akaike Information Criterion as the index. The results showed that at present and in the future, P. tomentosa was distributed across the northern provinces, with Gansu, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan being the most suitable regions. Compared with the current climatic conditions, the potential growing area of P. tomentosa will move north, and the growing area will increase, especially in Xinjiang, where the low-impact zone area decreases. Temperature and humidity were the main variables affecting the potential distribution of the plant, including the average temperature in the coldest season (Bio11) and precipitation in the warmest season (Bio18).
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Global distribution of soapberries (Sapindus L.) habitats under current and future climate scenarios. Sci Rep 2021; 11:19740. [PMID: 34611181 PMCID: PMC8492679 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98389-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, the diversity of Sapindus germplasms may face the risk of destruction. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the current and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0-20 °C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40-140 mm, a mean temperature of 2-25 °C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19-28 °C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6-7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.
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Evaluating the Influence of Climate Change on Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker Habitat Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau Using Maximum Entropy Model. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12091230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
The ecosystems across the Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly in response to climate change, which poses unprecedented challenges for the control and mitigation of desertification on the Tibetan Plateau. Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is a drought-resistant plant species that has great potential to be used for desertification and soil degradation control on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model, we characterized the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate scenarios. To construct a robust model, 242 population occurrence records, gathered from our field surveys, historical data records, and a literature review, were used to calibrate the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that, under current environmental conditions, the habitat of S. moorcroftiana was concentrated in regions along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau. Elevation, isothermality, and minimal air temperature of the coldest month played a dominant role in determining the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana. Under future climate scenarios, the increased air temperature was likely to benefit the expansion of S. moorcroftiana over the short term, but, in the long run, continued warming may restrict the growth of S. moorcroftiana and lead to a contraction in its habitat. Importantly, the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley was found to be the core habitat of S. moorcroftiana, and this habitat moved westwards along the Yarlung Tsangpo River under future climate scenarios, but did not detach from it. This finding suggests that, with the current pace of climate change, an increase in efforts to protect and cultivate S. moorcroftiana is necessary and critical to control desertification on the Tibetan Plateau.
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Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12091216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology. Some Carpinus plants have become extinct. Thus, we need to pay more attention to the Carpinus plants that are not yet extinct but are endangered. Here, we employed the species distribution model (SDM) considering different climate change scenarios and human footprint to test the potential habitat changes of three Carpinus species (C. oblongifolia, C. tientaiensis, and C. purpurinervis) in the future. Our results showed that the mean diurnal range of temperature (MDRT), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and human footprint were the most influential factors determining the distribution of C. oblongifolia. Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), MDRT, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important climatic factors affecting C. tientaiensis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most important factor in the distribution of C. purpurinervis. Our results also showed that the three species had different adaptability and habitat change trends under the future climate change scenarios, although they belong to the same genus. The potential habitats of C. oblongifolia would expand in the future, while the potential habitats of C. tientaiensis and C. purpurinervis would decrease for the same period. The predicted changes of these three endangered species on temporal and spatial patterns could provide a theoretical basis for their conservation strategies.
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Zewudie D, Ding W, Rong Z, Zhao C, Chang Y. Spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat suitability for the Ethiopian staple crop, Eragrostis tef (teff), under changing climate. PeerJ 2021; 9:e10965. [PMID: 33828911 PMCID: PMC7996070 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.10965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Teff (Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter) is a staple, ancient food crop in Ethiopia. Its growth is affected by climate change, so it is essential to understand climatic effects on its habitat suitability in order to design countermeasures to ensure food security. Based on the four Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we predicted the potential distribution of teff under current and future scenarios using a maximum entropy model (Maxent). Eleven variables were selected out of 19, according to correlation analysis combined with their contribution rates to the distribution. Simulated accuracy results validated by the area under the curve (AUC) had strong predictability with values of 0.83–0.85 for current and RCP scenarios. Our results demonstrated that mean temperature in the coldest season, precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the cold season and slope are the dominant factors driving potential teff distribution. Proportions of suitable teff area, relative to the total study area were 58% in current climate condition, 58.8% in RCP2.6, 57.6% in RCP4.5, 59.2% in RCP6.0, and 57.4% in RCP8.5, respectively. We found that warmer conditions are correlated with decreased land suitability. As expected, bioclimatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were the best predictors for teff suitability. Additionally, there were geographic shifts in land suitability, which need to be accounted for when assessing overall susceptibility to climate change. The ability to adapt to climate change will be critical for Ethiopia’s agricultural strategy and food security. A robust climate model is necessary for developing primary adaptive strategies and policy to minimize the harmful impact of climate change on teff.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dinka Zewudie
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Wenguang Ding
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Zhanlei Rong
- College of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China
| | - Chuanyan Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yapeng Chang
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Two Varieties of Litsea coreana (Leopard-Skin Camphor) in China under Climate Change. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11111159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate change considerably affects vegetation growth and may lead to changes in vegetation distribution. Leopard-skin camphor is an endangered species, and the main raw material for hawk tea, and has various pharmacodynamic functions. Studying the potential distribution of two leopard-skin camphor varieties under climate change should assist in the effective protection of these species. We collected the distribution point data for 130 and 89 Litsea coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa, respectively, and data for 22 environmental variables. We also predicted the potential distribution of the two varieties in China using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Results showed that the two varieties are mainly located in the subtropical area south of the Qinling Mountains–Huai River line in the current and future climate scenarios, and the potentially suitable area for L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa is larger than that of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis. Compared with current climatic conditions, the potentially suitable areas of the two leopard-skin camphor varieties will move to high-latitude and -altitude areas and the total suitable area will increase slightly, while moderately and highly suitable areas will be significantly reduced under future climatic scenarios. For example, under a 2070-RCP8.5 (representative of a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2070s) climatic scenario, the highly suitable areas of L. coreana Levl. var. sinensis and L. coreana Levl. var. lanuginosa are 6900 and 300 km2, and account for only 10.27% and 0.21% of the current area, respectively. Temperature is the key environmental factor affecting the potential distribution of the two varieties, especially the mean daily diurnal range (Bio2) and the min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The results can provide a reference for relevant departments in taking protective measures to prevent the decrease or extinction of the species under climate change.
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Current and Future Distribution of Five Timber Forest Species in Amazonas, Northeast Peru: Contributions towards a Restoration Strategy. DIVERSITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/d12080305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide and the Peruvian National Map of Degraded Areas indicates that 13.78% (177,592.82 km2) of the country’s territory is degraded. Forest plantations can be a restoration strategy, while conserving economically important species affected by climate change and providing forestry material for markets. This study modelled the species distribution under current conditions and climate change scenarios of five Timber Forest Species (TFS) in the Amazonas Department, northeastern Peru. Modelling was conducted with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) using 26 environmental variables. Of the total distribution under current conditions of Cedrelinga cateniformis, Ceiba pentandra, Apuleia leiocarpa, Cariniana decandra and Cedrela montana, 34.64% (2985.51 km2), 37.96% (2155.86 km2), 35.34% (2132.57 km2), 33.30% (1848.51 km2), and 35.81% (6125.44 km2), respectively, correspond to degraded areas and, therefore, there is restoration potential with these species. By 2050 and 2070, all TFS are projected to change their distribution compared to their current ranges, regardless of whether it will be an expansion and/or a contraction. Consequently, this methodology is intended to guide the economic and ecological success of forest plantations in reducing areas degraded by deforestation or similar activities.
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Mudereri B, Mukanga C, Mupfiga E, Gwatirisa C, Kimathi E, Chitata T. Analysis of potentially suitable habitat within migration connections of an intra-African migrant-the Blue Swallow (Hirundo atrocaerulea). ECOL INFORM 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2020.101082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
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Sun J, Qiu H, Guo J, Xu X, Wu D, Zhong L, Jiang B, Jiao J, Yuan W, Huang Y, Shen A, Wang W. Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
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