Shifts in Growth Responses to Climate and Exceeded Drought-Vulnerability Thresholds Characterize Dieback in Two Mediterranean Deciduous Oaks

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece

Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km². Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Sensitivity and threshold dynamics of Pinus strobus and Quercus spp. in response to experimental and naturally occurring severe droughts

Increased drought frequency and severity are a pervasive global threat, yet the capacity of mesic temperate forests to maintain resilience in response to drought remains poorly understood. We deployed a throughfall removal experiment to simulate a once in a century drought in New Hampshire, USA, which coupled with the region-wide 2016 drought, intensified moisture stress beyond that experienced in the lifetimes of our study trees. To assess the sensitivity and threshold dynamics of two dominant northeastern tree genera (Quercus and Pinus), we monitored sap flux density (Js), leaf water potential and gas exchange, growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) for one pretreatment year (2015) and two treatment years (2016-17). Results showed that Js in pine (Pinus strobus L.) declined abruptly at a soil moisture threshold of 0.15 m3 m-3, whereas oak's (Quercus rubra L. and Quercus velutina Lam.) threshold was 0.11 m3 m-3-a finding consistent with pine's more isohydric strategy. Nevertheless, once oaks' moisture threshold was surpassed, Js declined abruptly, suggesting that while oaks are well adapted to moderate drought, they are highly susceptible to extreme drought. The radial growth reduction in response to the 2016 drought was more than twice as great for pine as for oaks (50 vs 18%, respectively). Despite relatively high precipitation in 2017, the oaks' growth continued to decline (low recovery), whereas pine showed neutral (treatment) or improved (control) growth. The iWUE increased in 2016 for both treatment and control pines, but only in treatment oaks. Notably, pines exhibited a significant linear relationship between iWUE and precipitation across years, whereas the oaks only showed a response during the driest conditions, further underscoring the different sensitivity thresholds for these species. Our results provide new insights into how interactions between temperate forest tree species' contrasting physiologies and soil moisture thresholds influence their responses and resilience to extreme drought.

Modeling Climate Impacts on Tree Growth to Assess Tree Vulnerability to Drought During Forest Dieback

Forest dieback because of drought is a global phenomenon threatening particular tree populations. Particularly vulnerable stands are usually located in climatically stressing locations such as xeric sites subjected to seasonal drought. These tree populations show a pronounced loss of vitality, growth decline, and high mortality in response to extreme climate events such as heat waves and droughts. However, dieback events do not uniformly affect stands, with some trees showing higher symptoms of drought vulnerability than other neighboring conspecifics. In this study, we investigated if trees showing different vulnerabilities to dieback showed lower growth rates (Grs) and higher sensitivities to the climate in the past using dendroecology and the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) process-based growth model. We studied two Pinus pinaster stands with contrasting Grs showing recent dieback in the Iberian System, north-eastern Spain. We compared coexisting declining (D) and non-declining (ND) trees with crown defoliation values above and below the 50% threshold, respectively. The mean growth rate was lower in D than in ND trees in the two stands. The two vigor classes showed a growth divergence prior to the dieback onset and different responsiveness to climate. The ND trees were more responsive to changes in spring water balance and soil moisture than D trees, indicating a loss of growth responsiveness to the climate in stressed trees. Such an interaction between water availability and vigor was reflected by the VS-model simulations, which provided evidence for the observation that growth was mainly limited by low soil moisture in both sites. Such an interaction between water availability and vigor was reflected by the VS-model simulations, which provided evidence for the observation that growth was mainly limited by low soil moisture in both sites. The presented comparisons indicated different stand vulnerabilities to drought contingent on-site conditions. Further research should investigate the role played by environmental conditions and individual features such as access to soil water or hydraulic traits and implement them in process-based growth models to better forecast dieback.

Disentangling Mechanisms of Drought-Induced Dieback in Pinus nigra Arn. from Growth and Wood Isotope Patterns

The increased frequency and intensity of warming-induced droughts have triggered dieback episodes affecting many forest types and tree species worldwide. Tree plantations are not exempt as they can be more vulnerable to drought than natural forests because of their lower structural and genetic diversity. Therefore, disentangling the physiological mechanisms leading to growth decline and tree mortality can provide tools to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we investigated a Pinus nigra Arn. plantation situated in northern Spain, in which some trees showed canopy dieback and radial-growth decline. We analyzed how radial growth and its responses to drought events differed between non-declining (ND) and declining (D) trees showing low and high canopy defoliation, respectively, in combination with carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios in tree rings. The radial growth of P. nigra was constrained by water availability during the growing season and the previous autumn. The radial growth of D trees showed higher sensitivity to drought than ND trees. This fact is in accordance with the lower drought resilience and negative growth trends observed in D trees. Both tree classes differed in their growth from 2012 onwards, with D trees showing a reduced growth compared to ND trees. The positive δ13C-δ18O relationship together with the uncoupling between growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency suggest that D trees have less tight stomatal regulation than ND trees, which could involve a high risk of xylem embolism in the former class. Our results suggest that different water use strategies between coexisting ND and D trees were behind the differences in growth patterns and point to hydraulic failure as a possible mechanism triggering dieback and growth decline.