Are Secondary Forests Ready for Climate Change? It Depends on Magnitude of Climate Change, Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Legacies

Study on the relationship between net primary productivity and site quality in Japanese larch plantations in mountainous areas of eastern Liaoning

Plantation forests enhance carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in China. Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carrière (Lamb.) (Larix olgensis Henry) is the main species for afforestation in the eastern Liaoning Province. Therefore, it is important to understand the correlation between the site class and carbon sink potential of Larix kaempferi plantations in Liaoning Province for afforestation and carbon sink in this area. The model was fitted using three classical theoretical growth equations: the Richards model, the Korf model, and the Hossfeld model. This study used the forest resource inventory data for management in Liaoning Province in 2011 to build six dynamic height-age models for a Larix kaempferi plantation in Dandong City regardless of base-age. The optimal model derived by the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) method was compared with the model derived by the algebraic difference approach (ADA) method. The superiority of GADA was demonstrated by comparison. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to fit the model. The statistical and biological characteristics were considered synthetically when comparing the models. The best model was screened out by statistical analysis and graphic analysis. The results show that the differential height-age model derived from Richards equation can well explain the growth process of Larix kaempferi in Dandong City, Liaoning Province under different conditions. The site index model based on Richards equation and derived by GADA was used to calculate the site class of a Larix kaempferi plantation in Dandong City. The net primary productivity (NPP) value from the past ten years was extracted from the MOD17A3HGF data set. Spearman correlation analysis and Kendall correlation analysis were used to show that there is a significant positive correlation between NPP value and site class of Larix kaempferi plantation in Dandong City. Among them, the highest growth occurred in 2016; NPP increased by about 3.914 gC/m2/year for every two increases in height-age grade; the lowest increase in NPP was in 2014; NPP increased by about 2.113 gC/m2/year for every two increases in height-age grade; and for every two increases in height-age grade in the recent ten years, the average NPP value increased by about 2.731 gC/m2/year.

Post-disturbance reorganization of forest ecosystems in a changing world

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.

Seven Ways a Warming Climate Can Kill the Southern Boreal Forest

The southern boreal forests of North America are susceptible to large changes in composition as temperate forests or grasslands may replace them as the climate warms. A number of mechanisms for this have been shown to occur in recent years: (1) Gradual replacement of boreal trees by temperate trees through gap dynamics; (2) Sudden replacement of boreal overstory trees after gradual understory invasion by temperate tree species; (3) Trophic cascades causing delayed invasion by temperate species, followed by moderately sudden change from boreal to temperate forest; (4) Wind and/or hail storms removing large swaths of boreal forest and suddenly releasing temperate understory trees; (4) Compound disturbances: wind and fire combination; (5) Long, warm summers and increased drought stress; (6) Insect infestation due to lack of extreme winter cold; (7) Phenological disturbance, due to early springs, that has the potential to kill enormous swaths of coniferous boreal forest within a few years. Although most models project gradual change from boreal forest to temperate forest or savanna, most of these mechanisms have the capability to transform large swaths (size range tens to millions of square kilometers) of boreal forest to other vegetation types during the 21st century. Therefore, many surprises are likely to occur in the southern boreal forest over the next century, with major impacts on forest productivity, ecosystem services, and wildlife habitat.

Climate-Biome Envelope Shifts Create Enormous Challenges and Novel Opportunities for Conservation

Research Highlights: We modeled climate-biome envelopes at high resolution in the Western Great Lakes Region for recent and future time-periods. The projected biome shifts, in conjunction with heterogeneous distribution of protected land, may create both great challenges for conservation of particular ecosystems and novel conservation opportunities. Background and Objectives: Climate change this century will affect the distribution and relative abundance of ecological communities against a mostly static background of protected land. We developed a climate-biome envelope model using a priori climate-vegetation relationships for the Western Great Lakes Region (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan USA and adjacent Ontario, Canada) to predict potential biomes and ecotones—boreal forest, mixed forest, temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie—for a recent climate normal period (1979–2013) and future conditions (2061–2080). Materials and Methods: We analyzed six scenarios, two representative concentration pathways (RCP)—4.5 and 8.5, and three global climate models to represent cool, average, and warm scenarios to predict climate-biome envelopes for 2061–2080. To assess implications of the changes for conservation, we analyzed the amount of land with climate suited for each of the biomes and ecotones both region-wide and within protected areas, under current and future conditions. Results: Recent biome boundaries were accurately represented by the climate-biome envelope model. The modeled future conditions show at least a 96% loss in areas suitable for the boreal and mixed forest from the region, but likely gains in areas suitable for temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie. The analysis also showed that protected areas in the region will most likely lose most or all of the area, 18,692 km2, currently climatically suitable for boreal forest. This would represent an enormous conservation loss. However, conversely, the area climatically suitable for prairie and prairie–forest border within protected areas would increase up to 12.5 times the currently suitable 1775 km2. Conclusions: These results suggest that retaining boreal forest in potential refugia where it currently exists and facilitating transition of some forests to prairie, oak savanna, and temperate forest should both be conservation priorities in the northern part of the region.