Effects of Climate Change on the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation in Yunnan Province, Southwest China

Distribution of habitat suitability for Suaeda salsa in the Liaohe River Estuary and its relationship with carbon storage

Suaeda salsa acts as a natural barrier between land and sea in estuarine wetlands while also serving as a significant source of carbon storage. Understanding the synergistic relationship between the spatial distribution of Suaeda salsa habitat suitability and its carbon storage capabilities is essential for guiding ecological restoration and bolstering the carbon sequestration potential of wetlands. Drawing on field survey data from the Liaohe River Estuary wetlands collected in 2021 and 2022, we applied the Maxent model to delineate the spatial distribution of Suaeda salsa habitat suitability. The findings indicate that the principal environmental determinants for the Suaeda salsa community are elevation, soil phosphorus, and sand and soil salt content. Habitats can be divided from into four classes with increasing suitability index: I, II, III, and IV. As the most favorable habitat, class IV spanned 33.07 km2 and constituted 22.37 % of the area. By integrating remote sensing and ground survey data, a carbon storage evaluation model for Suaeda salsa was developed. This model revealed that the carbon storage within the Liaohe River Estuary reached 8238.18 and 16,194.08 tons in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis of habitat suitability distribution and carbon storage revealed that an increase in habitat suitability led to an increase in carbon storage in Suaeda salsa, which was also influenced by the surrounding land use types. This work demonstrates a significant positive correlation between habitat suitability and carbon sequestration capacity. In the future, we suggest that ecological restoration projects in the Liaohe Estuary region focus on areas with higher habitat suitability. This study supports the sustainable management of the Suaeda salsa community and provides a theoretical basis for enhancing the carbon sequestration capacity of estuarine wetlands.

Projecting future aboveground carbon sequestration rate of alpine forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau in response to climate change

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) of forests serves as an indicator of their carbon sequestration capacity over time, providing insights into the potential carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. To explore the long-term Spatiotemporal variation of ACSR in the transitional ecotone of the eastern Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios, we utilized a forest landscape model that was parameterized with forest inventory data from the eastern Tibetan Plateau to simulate this ecological function changes. The study found that climate warming had significant effect on forests ACSR in different types of forests. ACSR was significantly reduced (p<0.05) in cold temperate coniferous and temperate coniferous forests, whereas it was significantly increased in deciduous broad-leaved forests. However, the impact of climate warming on evergreen broad-leaved forests was found to be negligible. At the species level, climate warming has mostly suppressed the ACSR of coniferous trees, except for Chinese hemlock. The main dominant species, spruce and fir, have been particularly affected. Conversely, the ACSR of most broad-leaved trees has increased due to climate warming. In addition, at the landscape scale, the ACSR within this region is expected to experience a steady decline after 2031s-2036s. Despite the effects of climate warming, this trend is projected to persist. In conclusion, the forests ACSR in this region will be significantly affected by future climate warming. Our research indicates that climate warming will have a noticeable suppressive effect on conifers. It is imperative that this factor be taken into account when devising forest management plans for the future in this region.