Complex Challenges of Maintaining Whitebark Pine in Greater Yellowstone under Climate Change: A Call for Innovative Research, Management, and Policy Approaches

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)-the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change-is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species' AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species' attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species' AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species' innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species' AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Public Opinion about Management Strategies for a Low-Profile Species across Multiple Jurisdictions: Whitebark Pine in the Northern Rockies

1. As public land managers seek to adopt and implement conservation measures aimed at reversing or slowing the negative effects of climate change, they are looking to understand public opinion regarding different management strategies. 2. This study explores drivers of attitudes toward different management strategies (i.e., no management, protection, and restoration) for a low-profile but keystone tree species, the whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Since the whitebark pine species has a range that traverses different federal land designations, we examine whether attitudes toward management strategies differ by jurisdiction (i.e., wilderness or federal lands more generally). 3. We conducted a web and mail survey of residents from Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, with 1,617 valid responses and a response rate of 16%. 4. We find that active management strategies have substantially higher levels of support than does no management, with relatively little differentiation across protection and restoration activities or across different land designations. We also find that support for management strategies is not influenced by values (political ideology) but is influenced by beliefs (about material vs. post-material environmental orientation, global climate change, and federal spending for public lands) and some measures of experience (e.g., knowledge of threats). 5. This study helps land managers understand that support for active management of the whitebark pine species is considerable and nonpartisan and that beliefs and experience with whitebark pine trees are important for support.

Landscape- and local-scale habitat influences on occurrence and detection probability of Clark's nutcrackers: Implications for conservation

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a keystone species and an obligate mutualist of the Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana), is rapidly declining throughout its range. Evidence suggests this decline is leading to a downward trend in local nutcracker populations, which would in-turn decrease whitebark pine regeneration. Our objectives were to (1) evaluate temporal variation in nutcracker habitat use as a function of whitebark pine and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) habitat, at local and landscape scales, (2) develop metrics for predicting when whitebark pine communities require intervention to sustain nutcracker visitation, and (3) test McKinney et al. (2009) and Barringer et al.'s (2012) models predicting nutcracker occurrence. Between 2009 and 2013, we carried out 3,135 audio-visual Clark's nutcracker surveys at 238 random points in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using Bayesian occupancy models and cross-product model selection, we evaluated the association between nutcracker occurrence and habitat variables during five stages of the nutcracker annual cycle, while accounting for imperfect detection. Nutcracker occurrence was most strongly associated with the presence of cone-bearing whitebark pine trees (rather than cone density) and the area of whitebark pine on the landscape. To promote a high, >75%, probability of occurrence at a site within the study area, we recommend a management plan that achieves a landscape composed of a minimum of 12,500-25,000 ha of cone-bearing whitebark pine habitat within a 32.6 km radius. Additionally, an optimal habitat mosaic includes moderate levels of Douglas-fir habitat. Models currently used to guide whitebark pine management strategies underpredicted nutcracker occurrence in our study area, suggesting these strategies may not be appropriate in the region. We cannot predict how this mutualistic relationship will change as the population density of each species shifts. We therefore suggest conducting periodic surveys to re-evaluate the relationship as the environment changes and management strategies are implemented.

Volatiles of High-Elevation Five-Needle Pines: Chemical Signatures through Ratios and Insight into Insect and Pathogen Resistance

High-elevation five-needle pine trees are a group of Pinus species in the subgenus Strobus that occur at the edges of plant growth near the alpine tree line. These species are ecologically very important and are also threatened by climate-driven insect outbreaks and an exotic pathogen. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play central roles in the environmental adaptation of plants and in their defense against insects and pathogens. For example, the VOCs emitted by some high-elevation five-needle pine species attract female, tree-killing mountain pine beetles (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) in the pioneering phase whereas VOCs from other species strongly repel this foremost herbivore, but the mechanism is unknown. We collected and compared headspace VOCs from foliage of eight species of high-elevation five-needle pines in Europe and North America. Overall, VOCs differed quantitatively among species with few qualitative differences. Despite species emitting essentially the same compounds, Random Forest analysis correctly classified 117 of the 126 trees sampled by using VOCs and identified the most important compounds for species classification and for separating species resistant from those susceptible to MPB or white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola). These VOC 'fingerprints' resulted largely from species emitting distinctive ratios of compounds, rather than through presence of species-specific compounds. Importantly, these Pinus species vary greatly in resistance to the main herbivore (MPB) and pathogen (white pine blister rust) causing tree mortality. Thus, these findings provide insights and should guide research into understanding resistance and in developing tools to manage these important trees. For instance, studies into the functions of five-needle pine VOCs in defense against abiotic or biotic stressors should focus on blend ratios rather than on individual compounds.

Biophysical Gradients and Performance of Whitebark Pine Plantings in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Research Highlights: The efficacy of planting for restoration is important for ecosystem managers. Planting efforts represent an opportunity for conserving and managing species during a population crisis. Background and Objectives: Federal agencies have been planting whitebark pine (WBP), an important subalpine species that is late to mature and long-lived, for three decades in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). These efforts have been met with varying success, and they have not been evaluated beyond the first five years post-planting. Ecosystem managers will continue to plant WBP in the GYE for years to come, and this research helps to inform and identify higher quality habitat during a period of changing climate and high GYE WBP mortality rates. Materials and Methods: We use a combination of field sampling and a water balance model to investigate local biophysical gradients as explanatory variables for WBP performance at twenty-nine GYE planting sites. Results: We found that the WBP growth rate was positively correlated with actual evapotranspiration (AET) and was greatest when cumulative growing season AET was above 350 mm. Growth rate was not strongly affected by competition at the levels found in this study. However, site density change over time was negatively affected by mean growing season temperature and when more than five competitors were present within 3.59 m radius. Conclusions: If they make it to maturity, trees that are planted this season will not begin to produce cones until the latter half of this century. We recommend planting efforts that optimize AET for growth rate objectives, minimize water deficit (WD) that cause stress and mortality, and removing competitors if they exceed five within a short distance of seedlings.

Survival of Whitebark Pine Seedlings Grown from Direct Seeding: Implications for Regeneration and Restoration under Climate Change

Whitebark pine populations are declining nearly range-wide, primarily from the exotic fungal pathogen that causes white pine blister rust (WPBR). Climate change is expected to exacerbate these declines by decreasing climatically suitable areas. Planting WPBR-resistant seedlings is a key restoration action, but it is costly, time consuming, and labor intensive. Direct seeding—sowing seeds rather than planting seedlings—may reduce costs and open remote areas to restoration; however, its efficacy remains largely unexplored. In this case study, we estimated the annual survival rates (ASR) of seedlings grown from directly sown seeds, and the effect of elevation zone and microsite type on survival. For five years we monitored 184 caches containing one or more seedlings within one study area in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Seed caches were originally stratified between subalpine forest and treeline and among three microsite types defined by a nurse object: Rocks, trees, and no object. To estimate ASR, we selected the most parsimonious model of a set using AICc. ASR was best described by elevation zone and year and ranged from 0.571 to 0.992. The odds of seedling survival were 2.62 times higher at treeline than in subalpine forest and were 4.6 to 36.2 times higher in 2016–2018 than 2014. We estimated the probability that a whitebark pine seed cache would contain one or more living seedlings six years after sowing to be 0.175 and 0.0584 for treeline and subalpine caches, respectively. We estimated that 1410 and 4229 caches ha−1 would need to be sown at treeline and in subalpine forest, respectively, to attain target restoration densities of 247 established trees ha−1. Our findings, although based on one study area, suggest that climate change may be increasing treeline regeneration, and that direct seeding may be a viable restoration option and climate change mitigation tool for whitebark pine.

Climatic Correlates of White Pine Blister Rust Infection in Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Whitebark pine, a foundation species at tree line in the Western U.S. and Canada, has declined due to native mountain pine beetle epidemics, wildfire, and white pine blister rust. These declines are concerning for the multitude of ecosystem and human benefits provided by this species. An understanding of the climatic correlates associated with spread is needed to successfully manage impacts from forest pathogens. Since 2000 mountain pine beetles have killed 75% of the mature cone-bearing trees in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and 40.9% of monitored trees have been infected with white pine blister rust. We identified models of white pine blister rust infection which indicated that an August and September interaction between relative humidity and temperature are better predictors of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine than location and site characteristics in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust occur throughout the ecosystem, but larger trees in relatively warm and humid conditions were more likely to be infected between 2000 and 2018. We mapped the infection probability over the past two decades to identify coarse-scale patterns of climate conditions associated with white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine.

How much are US households prepared to pay to manage and protect whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.)?

The whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) tree species faces precipitously declining populations in many locations. It is a keystone species found primarily in high-elevation forests across the Western US. The species is an early responder to climate change and qualifies for endangered species protection. We use contingent valuation to estimate the public's willingness to pay for management of the whitebark pine species. In contrast, previous work centres on valuing broader aspects of forest ecosystems or threats to multiple tree species. While only approximately half of the survey respondents have seen whitebark pine, the mean willingness to pay for whitebark pine management is $135 per household. When aggregated across all households from the three sampled states, willingness to pay totals $163 million. This information is valuable to forest managers who must make difficult decisions in times of resource constraints and climate change.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Defence syndromes in lodgepole - whitebark pine ecosystems relate to degree of historical exposure to mountain pine beetles

Warming climate is allowing tree-killing bark beetles to expand their ranges and access naïve and semi-naïve conifers. Conifers respond to attack using complex mixtures of chemical defences that can impede beetle success, but beetles exploit some compounds for host location and communication. Outcomes of changing relationships will depend on concentrations and compositions of multiple host compounds, which are largely unknown. We analysed constitutive and induced chemistries of Dendroctonus ponderosae's primary historical host, Pinus contorta, and Pinus albicaulis, a high-elevation species whose encounters with this beetle are transitioning from intermittent to continuous. We quantified multiple classes of terpenes, phenolics, carbohydrates and minerals. Pinus contorta had higher constitutive allocation to, and generally stronger inducibility of, compounds that resist these beetle-fungal complexes. Pinus albicaulis contained higher proportions of specific monoterpenes that enhance pheromone communication, and lower induction of pheromone inhibitors. Induced P. contorta increased insecticidal and fungicidal compounds simultaneously, whereas P. albicaulis responses against these agents were inverse. Induced terpene accumulation was accompanied by decreased non-structural carbohydrates, primarily sugars, in P. contorta, but not P. albicaulis, which contained primarily starches. These results show some host species with continuous exposure to bark beetles have more thoroughly integrated defence syndromes than less-continuously exposed host species.

A Course of Innovations in Wood Processing Industry within the Forestry-Wood Chain in Slovakia: A Q Methodology Study to Identify Future Orientation in the Sector

As innovations are the basic premise of commercial success in the market the main objective of this paper is to determine the main course of innovations in wood-processing industry within the forestry-wood chain in Slovakia from the viewpoint of representatives of wood processing companies. Using a Q-methodology approach the emphasis is also put on identification of differences between the opinions of small individual entrepreneurs and representatives of capital companies. Based on the results of structured interview with representatives of 33 wood processing companies the main findings suggest that future innovation activities in the sector will be related to the technology innovations mainly in processing of coniferous timber. However, the extent of such innovations is perceived differently depending on the company size and ownership category. While small individual entrepreneurs expect only slight innovation changes in the industry aimed at the meeting of required standards, managers of capital companies tend to foresee the future vision in restructuralisation of wood-processing industry.

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Whitebark Pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) in Western North America

Whitebark pine (WBP, Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) is an endangered conifer species due to heavy mortality from white pine blister rust (WPBR, caused by Cronartium ribicola) and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). Information about genetic diversity and population structure is of fundamental importance for its conservation and restoration. However, current knowledge on the genetic constitution and genomic variation is still limited for WBP. In this study, an integrated genomics approach was applied to characterize seed collections from WBP breeding programs in western North America. RNA-seq analysis was used for de novo assembly of the WBP needle transcriptome, which contains 97,447 protein-coding transcripts. Within the transcriptome, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were discovered, and more than 22,000 of them were non-synonymous SNPs (ns-SNPs). Following the annotation of genes with ns-SNPs, 216 ns-SNPs within candidate genes with putative functions in disease resistance and plant defense were selected to design SNP arrays for high-throughput genotyping. Among these SNP loci, 71 were highly polymorphic, with sufficient variation to identify a unique genotype for each of the 371 individuals originating from British Columbia (Canada), Oregon and Washington (USA). A clear genetic differentiation was evident among seed families. Analyses of genetic spatial patterns revealed varying degrees of diversity and the existence of several genetic subgroups in the WBP breeding populations. Genetic components were associated with geographic variables and phenotypic rating of WPBR disease severity across landscapes, which may facilitate further identification of WBP genotypes and gene alleles contributing to local adaptation and quantitative resistance to WPBR. The WBP genomic resources developed here provide an invaluable tool for further studies and for exploitation and utilization of the genetic diversity preserved within this endangered conifer and other five-needle pines.