Can Future CO2 Concentrations Mitigate the Negative Effects of High Temperature and Longer Droughts on Forest Growth?

Modelling the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change in Eastern Canadian forests

Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010-2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha-1 yr-1 compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.

Projecting future aboveground carbon sequestration rate of alpine forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau in response to climate change

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) of forests serves as an indicator of their carbon sequestration capacity over time, providing insights into the potential carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. To explore the long-term Spatiotemporal variation of ACSR in the transitional ecotone of the eastern Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios, we utilized a forest landscape model that was parameterized with forest inventory data from the eastern Tibetan Plateau to simulate this ecological function changes. The study found that climate warming had significant effect on forests ACSR in different types of forests. ACSR was significantly reduced (p<0.05) in cold temperate coniferous and temperate coniferous forests, whereas it was significantly increased in deciduous broad-leaved forests. However, the impact of climate warming on evergreen broad-leaved forests was found to be negligible. At the species level, climate warming has mostly suppressed the ACSR of coniferous trees, except for Chinese hemlock. The main dominant species, spruce and fir, have been particularly affected. Conversely, the ACSR of most broad-leaved trees has increased due to climate warming. In addition, at the landscape scale, the ACSR within this region is expected to experience a steady decline after 2031s-2036s. Despite the effects of climate warming, this trend is projected to persist. In conclusion, the forests ACSR in this region will be significantly affected by future climate warming. Our research indicates that climate warming will have a noticeable suppressive effect on conifers. It is imperative that this factor be taken into account when devising forest management plans for the future in this region.

Elevated CO2 increases biomass of Sorghum bicolor green prop roots under drought conditions via soluble sugar accumulation and photosynthetic activity

Elevated [CO2 ] (E[CO2 ]) mitigates agricultural losses of C4 plants under drought. Although several studies have described the molecular responses of the C4 plant species Sorghum bicolor during drought exposure, few have reported the combined effects of drought and E[CO2 ] (E[CO2 ]/D) on the roots. A previous study showed that, among plant organs, green prop roots (GPRs) under E[CO2 ]/D presented the second highest increase in biomass after leaves compared with ambient [CO2 ]/D. GPRs are photosynthetically active and sensitive to drought. To understand which mechanisms are involved in the increase in biomass of GPRs, we performed transcriptome analyses of GPRs under E[CO2 ]/D. Whole-transcriptome analysis revealed several pathways altered under E[CO2 ]/D, among which photosynthesis was strongly affected. We also used previous metabolome data to support our transcriptome data. Activities associated with photosynthesis and central metabolism increased, as seen by the upregulation of photosynthesis-related genes, a rise in glucose and polyol contents, and increased contents of chlorophyll a and carotenoids. Protein-protein interaction networks revealed that proliferation, biogenesis, and homeostasis categories were enriched and contained mainly upregulated genes. The findings suggest that the previously reported increase in GPR biomass of plants grown under E[CO2 ]/D is mainly attributed to glucose and polyol accumulation, as well as photosynthesis activity and carbon provided by respiratory CO2 refixation. Our findings reveal that an intriguing and complex metabolic process occurs in GPRs under E[CO2 ]/D, showing the crucial role of these organs in plant drought /tolerance.

A Step-by-Step Guide to Initialize and Calibrate Landscape Models: A Case Study in the Mediterranean Mountains

The use of spatially interactive forest landscape models has increased in recent years. These models are valuable tools to assess our knowledge about the functioning and provisioning of ecosystems as well as essential allies when predicting future changes. However, developing the necessary inputs and preparing them for research studies require substantial initial investments in terms of time. Although model initialization and calibration often take the largest amount of modelers’ efforts, such processes are rarely reported thoroughly in application studies. Our study documents the process of calibrating and setting up an ecophysiologically based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) in a biogeographical region where such a model has never been applied to date (southwestern Mediterranean mountains in Europe). We describe the methodological process necessary to produce the required spatial inputs expressing initial vegetation and site conditions. We test model behaviour on single-cell simulations and calibrate species parameters using local biomass estimations and literature information. Finally, we test how different initialization data—with and without shrub communities—influence the simulation of forest dynamics by applying the calibrated model at landscape level. Combination of plot-level data with vegetation maps allowed us to generate a detailed map of initial tree and shrub communities. Single-cell simulations revealed that the model was able to reproduce realistic biomass estimates and competitive effects for different forest types included in the landscape, as well as plausible monthly growth patterns of species growing in Mediterranean mountains. Our results highlight the importance of considering shrub communities in forest landscape models, as they influence the temporal dynamics of tree species. Besides, our results show that, in the absence of natural disturbances, harvesting or climate change, landscape-level simulations projected a general increase of biomass of several species over the next decades but with distinct spatio-temporal patterns due to competitive effects and landscape heterogeneity. Providing a step-by-step workflow to initialize and calibrate a forest landscape model, our study encourages new users to use such tools in forestry and climate change applications. Thus, we advocate for documenting initialization processes in a transparent and reproducible manner in forest landscape modelling.