Prediction of Parkinson's Disease Risk Based on Genetic Profile and Established Risk Factors

The phonation test can distinguish the patient with Parkinson's disease via Bayes inference

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disease with various clinical manifestations caused by multiple risk factors. However, the effect of different factors and relationships between different features related to PD and the extent of those factors leading to the incidence of PD remains unclear. we employed Bayesian network to construct a prediction model. The prediction system was trained on the data of 35 patients and 26 controls. The structure learning and parameter learning of Bayesian Network was completed through the tree-augmented network (TAN) and Netica software, respectively. We employed four Bayesian Networks in terms of the syllable, including monosyllables, disyllables, multisyllables and unsegmented syllables. The area under the curve (AUC) of monosyllabic, disyllabic, multisyllabic, and unsegmented-syllable models were 0.95, 0.83, 0.80 and 0.84, respectively. In the monosyllabic tests, the best predictor of PD was duration, the posterior probability of which was 92.70%. Meanwhile, minimum f0 (61.60%) predicted best in the disyllabic tests and the variables that predicted best in multisyllables and unsegmented syllables were end f0 (59.40%) and maximum f0 (58.40%). In the cross-sectional comparison, the prediction effect of each variable in the monosyllabic tests was generally higher than that of other test groups. The monosyllabic models had the highest predicted performance of PD. Among acoustic parameters, duration was the strongest feature in predicting the prevalence of PD in monosyllabic tests. We believe that this network methodology will be a useful tool for the clinical prediction of Parkinson's disease.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11571-024-10194-x.

Contributions of Common Genetic Variants to Constitutional Delay of Puberty and Idiopathic Hypogonadotropic Hypogonadism

CONTEXT

Constitutional delay of puberty (CDP) is highly heritable, but the genetic basis for CDP is largely unknown. Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH) can be caused by rare genetic variants, but in about half of cases, no rare-variant cause is found.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether common genetic variants that influence pubertal timing contribute to CDP and IHH.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

PARTICIPANTS

80 individuals with CDP; 301 with normosmic IHH, and 348 with Kallmann syndrome (KS); control genotyping data from unrelated studies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Polygenic scores (PGS) based on genome-wide association studies for timing of male pubertal hallmarks and age at menarche (AAM).

RESULTS

The CDP cohort had higher PGS for male pubertal hallmarks and for AAM compared to controls (for male hallmarks, Cohen's d = 0.67, P = 1 × 10-10; for AAM, d = 0.85, P = 1 × 10-16). The normosmic IHH cohort also had higher PGS for male hallmarks compared to controls, but the difference was smaller (male hallmarks d = 0.20, P = .003; AAM d = 0.10, P = .055). No differences were seen for the KS cohort compared to controls (male hallmarks d = 0.05, P = .45; AAM d = 0.03, P = .56).

CONCLUSION

Common genetic variants that influence pubertal timing in the general population contribute strongly to the genetics of CDP, weakly to normosmic IHH, and potentially not at all to KS. These findings demonstrate that the common-variant genetics of CDP and normosmic IHH are largely but not entirely distinct.

Prediction of Parkinson's Disease Using Machine Learning Methods

The detection of Parkinson's disease (PD) in its early stages is of great importance for its treatment and management, but consensus is lacking on what information is necessary and what models should be used to best predict PD risk. In our study, we first grouped PD-associated factors based on their cost and accessibility, and then gradually incorporated them into risk predictions, which were built using eight commonly used machine learning models to allow for comprehensive assessment. Finally, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method was used to investigate the contributions of each factor. We found that models built with demographic variables, hospital admission examinations, clinical assessment, and polygenic risk score achieved the best prediction performance, and the inclusion of invasive biomarkers could not further enhance its accuracy. Among the eight machine learning models considered, penalized logistic regression and XGBoost were the most accurate algorithms for assessing PD risk, with penalized logistic regression achieving an area under the curve of 0.94 and a Brier score of 0.08. Olfactory function and polygenic risk scores were the most important predictors for PD risk. Our research has offered a practical framework for PD risk assessment, where necessary information and efficient machine learning tools were highlighted.

A genome-wide association study coupled with machine learning approaches to identify influential demographic and genomic factors underlying Parkinson's disease

Background: Despite the recent success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in identifying 90 independent risk loci for Parkinson's disease (PD), the genomic underpinning of PD is still largely unknown. At the same time, accurate and reliable predictive models utilizing genomic or demographic features are desired in the clinic for predicting the risk of Parkinson's disease. Methods: To identify influential demographic and genomic factors associated with PD and to further develop predictive models, we utilized demographic data, incorporating 200 variables across 33,473 participants, along with genomic data involving 447,089 SNPs across 8,840 samples, both derived from the Fox Insight online study. We first applied correlation and GWAS analyses to find the top demographic and genomic factors associated with PD, respectively. We further developed and compared a variety of machine learning (ML) models for predicting PD. From the developed ML models, we performed feature importance analysis to reveal the predictability of each demographic or the genomic input feature for PD. Finally, we performed gene set enrichment analysis on our GWAS results to identify PD-associated pathways. Results: In our study, we identified both novel and well-known demographic and genetic factors (along with the enriched pathways) related to PD. In addition, we developed predictive models that performed robustly, with AUC = 0.89 for demographic data and AUC = 0.74 for genomic data. Our GWAS analysis identified several novel and significant variants and gene loci, including three intron variants in LMNA (p-values smaller than 4.0e-21) and one missense variant in SEMA4A (p-value = 1.11e-26). Our feature importance analysis from the PD-predictive ML models highlighted some significant and novel variants from our GWAS analysis (e.g., the intron variant rs1749409 in the RIT1 gene) and helped identify potentially causative variants that were missed by GWAS, such as rs11264300, a missense variant in the gene DCST1, and rs11584630, an intron variant in the gene KCNN3. Conclusion: In summary, by combining a GWAS with advanced machine learning models, we identified both known and novel demographic and genomic factors as well as built well-performing ML models for predicting Parkinson's disease.

Genetics in parkinson's disease: From better disease understanding to machine learning based precision medicine

Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder with highly heterogeneous phenotypes. Accordingly, it has been challenging to robustly identify genetic factors associated with disease risk, prognosis and therapy response via genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In this review we first provide an overview of existing statistical methods to detect associations between genetic variants and the disease phenotypes in existing PD GWAS. Secondly, we discuss the potential of machine learning approaches to better quantify disease phenotypes and to move beyond disease understanding towards a better-personalized treatment of the disease.