Genomic Predictions for Common Bunt, FHB, Stripe Rust, Leaf Rust, and Leaf Spotting Resistance in Spring Wheat

Genomic prediction of synthetic hexaploid wheat upon tetraploid durum and diploid Aegilops parental pools

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a globally important food crop, which was domesticated about 8-10,000 years ago. Bread wheat is an allopolyploid, and it evolved from two hybridization events of three species. To widen the genetic base in breeding, bread wheat has been re-synthesized by crossing durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) and goat grass (Aegilops tauschii Coss), leading to so-called synthetic hexaploid wheat (SHW). We applied the quantitative genetics tools of "hybrid prediction"-originally developed for the prediction of wheat hybrids generated from different heterotic groups - to a situation of allopolyploidization. Our use-case predicts the phenotypes of SHW for three quantitatively inherited global wheat diseases, namely tan spot (TS), septoria nodorum blotch (SNB), and spot blotch (SB). Our results revealed prediction abilities comparable to studies in 'traditional' elite or hybrid wheat. Prediction abilities were highest using a marker model and performing random cross-validation, predicting the performance of untested SHW (0.483 for SB to 0.730 for TS). When testing parents not necessarily used in SHW, combination prediction abilities were slightly lower (0.378 for SB to 0.718 for TS), yet still promising. Despite the limited phenotypic data, our results provide a general example for predictive models targeting an allopolyploidization event and a method that can guide the use of genetic resources available in gene banks.

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

Identification of Fusarium head blight sources of resistance and associated QTLs in historical and modern Canadian spring wheat

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one the most globally destructive fungal diseases in wheat and other small grains, causing a reduction in grain yield by 10-70%. The present study was conducted in a panel of historical and modern Canadian spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties and lines to identify new sources of FHB resistance and map associated quantitative trait loci (QTLs). We evaluated 249 varieties and lines for reaction to disease incidence, severity, and visual rating index (VRI) in seven environments by artificially spraying a mixture of four Fusarium graminearum isolates. A subset of 198 them were genotyped with the Wheat 90K iSelect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) array. Genome-wide association mapping performed on the overall best linear unbiased estimators (BLUE) computed from all seven environments and the International Wheat Genome Sequencing Consortium (IWGSC) RefSeq v2.0 physical map of 26,449 polymorphic SNPs out of the 90K identified sixteen FHB resistance QTLs that individually accounted for 5.7-10.2% of the phenotypic variance. The positions of two of the FHB resistance QTLs overlapped with plant height and flowering time QTLs. Four of the QTLs (QFhb.dms-3B.1, QFhb.dms-5A.5, QFhb.dms-5A.7, and QFhb.dms-6A.4) were simultaneously associated with disease incidence, severity, and VRI, which accounted for 27.0-33.2% of the total phenotypic variance in the combined environments. Three of the QTLs (QFhb.dms-2A.2, QFhb.dms-2D.2, and QFhb.dms-5B.8) were associated with both incidence and VRI and accounted for 20.5-22.1% of the total phenotypic variance. In comparison with the VRI of the checks, we identified four highly resistant and thirty-three moderately resistant lines and varieties. The new FHB sources of resistance and the physical map of the associated QTLs would provide wheat breeders valuable information towards their efforts in developing improved varieties in western Canada.

Genomic Prediction of Resistance to Tan Spot, Spot Blotch and Septoria Nodorum Blotch in Synthetic Hexaploid Wheat

Genomic prediction combines molecular and phenotypic data in a training population to predict the breeding values of individuals that have only been genotyped. The use of genomic information in breeding programs helps to increase the frequency of favorable alleles in the populations of interest. This study evaluated the performance of BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) in predicting resistance to tan spot, spot blotch and Septoria nodorum blotch in synthetic hexaploid wheat. BLUP was implemented in single-trait and multi-trait models with three variations: (1) the pedigree relationship matrix (A-BLUP), (2) the genomic relationship matrix (G-BLUP), and (3) a combination of the two matrices (A+G BLUP). In all three diseases, the A-BLUP model had a lower performance, and the G-BLUP and A+G BLUP were statistically similar (p ≥ 0.05). The prediction accuracy with the single trait was statistically similar (p ≥ 0.05) to the multi-trait accuracy, possibly due to the low correlation of severity between the diseases.

Haplotype-tagged SNPs improve genomic prediction accuracy for Fusarium head blight resistance and yield-related traits in wheat

Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based haplotyping with subsequent SNP tagging improved the genomic prediction accuracy up to 0.07 and 0.092 for Fusarium head blight resistance and spike width, respectively, across six different models. Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to enhance genetic gain in plant breeding. However, the method is accompanied by various complications leading to low prediction accuracy. One of the major challenges arises from the complex dimensionality of marker data. To overcome this issue, we applied two pre-selection methods for SNP markers viz. LD-based haplotype-tagging and GWAS-based trait-linked marker identification. Six different models were tested with preselected SNPs to predict the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of four traits measured in 419 winter wheat genotypes. Ten different sets of haplotype-tagged SNPs were selected by adjusting the level of LD thresholds. In addition, various sets of trait-linked SNPs were identified with different scenarios from the training-test combined and only from the training populations. The BRR and RR-BLUP models developed from haplotype-tagged SNPs had a higher prediction accuracy for FHB and SPW by 0.07 and 0.092, respectively, compared to the corresponding models developed without marker pre-selection. The highest prediction accuracy for SPW and FHB was achieved with tagged SNPs pruned at weak LD thresholds (r² < 0.5), while stringent LD was required for spike length (SPL) and flag leaf area (FLA). Trait-linked SNPs identified only from training populations failed to improve the prediction accuracy of the four studied traits. Pre-selection of SNPs via LD-based haplotype-tagging could play a vital role in optimizing genomic selection and reducing genotyping costs. Furthermore, the method could pave the way for developing low-cost genotyping methods through customized genotyping platforms targeting key SNP markers tagged to essential haplotype blocks.

Toward combining qualitative race-specific and quantitative race-nonspecific disease resistance by genomic selection

A novel genomic selection strategy offers the unique opportunity to develop qualitative race-specific resistant varieties that possess high levels of the more durable quantitative race-nonspecific resistance in their genetic background. Race-specific qualitative resistance genes (R-genes) are conferring complete resistance in many pathosystems, but are frequently overcome by new virulent pathogen races. Once the deployed R-genes are overcome, a wide variation of quantitative disease resistance (QDR) can be observed in a set of previously race-specific, i.e., completely resistant genotypes-a phenomenon known as "vertifolia effect." This race-nonspecific QDR is considered to be more durable in the long term, but provides merely a partial protection against pathogens. This simulation study aimed to detangle race-specific R-gene-mediated resistance of pending selection candidates and the QDR in their genetic background by employing different genomic selection strategies. True breeding values that reflected performance data for rust resistance in wheat were simulated, and used in a recurrent genomic selection based on several prediction models and training population designs. Using training populations that were devoid of race-specific R-genes was thereby pivotal for an efficient improvement of QDR in the long term. Marker-assisted preselection for the presence of R-genes followed by a genomic prediction for accumulating the many small to medium effect loci underlying QDR in the genetic background of race-specific resistant genotypes appeared furthermore to be a promising approach to select simultaneously for both types of resistance. The practical application of such a knowledge-driven genomic breeding strategy offers the opportunity to develop varieties with multiple layers of resistance, which have the potential to prevent intolerable crop losses under epidemic situations by displaying a high level of QDR even when race-specific R-genes have been overcome by evolving pathogen populations.

Identification of Disease Resistance Parents and Genome-Wide Association Mapping of Resistance in Spring Wheat

The likelihood of success in developing modern cultivars depend on multiple factors, including the identification of suitable parents to initiate new crosses, and characterizations of genomic regions associated with target traits. The objectives of the present study were to (a) determine the best economic weights of four major wheat diseases (leaf spot, common bunt, leaf rust, and stripe rust) and grain yield for multi-trait restrictive linear phenotypic selection index (RLPSI), (b) select the top 10% cultivars and lines (hereafter referred as genotypes) with better resistance to combinations of the four diseases and acceptable grain yield as potential parents, and (c) map genomic regions associated with resistance to each disease using genome-wide association study (GWAS). A diversity panel of 196 spring wheat genotypes was evaluated for their reaction to stripe rust at eight environments, leaf rust at four environments, leaf spot at three environments, common bunt at two environments, and grain yield at five environments. The panel was genotyped with the Wheat 90K SNP array and a few KASP SNPs of which we used 23,342 markers for statistical analyses. The RLPSI analysis performed by restricting the expected genetic gain for yield displayed significant (p < 0.05) differences among the 3125 economic weights. Using the best four economic weights, a subset of 22 of the 196 genotypes were selected as potential parents with resistance to the four diseases and acceptable grain yield. GWAS identified 37 genomic regions, which included 12 for common bunt, 13 for leaf rust, 5 for stripe rust, and 7 for leaf spot. Each genomic region explained from 6.6 to 16.9% and together accounted for 39.4% of the stripe rust, 49.1% of the leaf spot, 94.0% of the leaf rust, and 97.9% of the common bunt phenotypic variance combined across all environments. Results from this study provide valuable information for wheat breeders selecting parental combinations for new crosses to develop improved germplasm with enhanced resistance to the four diseases as well as the physical positions of genomic regions that confer resistance, which facilitates direct comparisons for independent mapping studies in the future.

Comparison of single-trait and multi-trait genomic predictions on agronomic and disease resistance traits in spring wheat

This study performed comprehensive analyses on the predictive abilities of single-trait and two multi-trait models in three populations. Our results demonstrated the superiority of multi-traits over single-trait models across seven agronomic and four to seven disease resistance traits of different genetic architecture. The predictive ability of multi-trait and single-trait prediction models has not been investigated on diverse traits evaluated under organic and conventional management systems. Here, we compared the predictive abilities of 25% of a testing set that has not been evaluated for a single trait (ST), not evaluated for multi-traits (MT1), and evaluated for some traits but not others (MT2) in three spring wheat populations genotyped either with the wheat 90K single nucleotide polymorphisms array or DArTseq. Analyses were performed on seven agronomic traits evaluated under conventional and organic management systems, four to seven disease resistance traits, and all agronomic and disease resistance traits simultaneously. The average prediction accuracies of the ST, MT1, and MT2 models varied from 0.03 to 0.78 (mean 0.41), from 0.05 to 0.82 (mean 0.47), and from 0.05 to 0.92 (mean 0.67), respectively. The predictive ability of the MT2 model was significantly greater than the ST model in all traits and populations except common bunt with the MT1 model being intermediate between them. The MT2 model increased prediction accuracies over the ST and MT1 models in all traits by 9.0-82.4% (mean 37.3%) and 2.9-82.5% (mean 25.7%), respectively, except common bunt that showed up to 7.7% smaller accuracies in two populations. A joint analysis of all agronomic and disease resistance traits further improved accuracies within the MT1 and MT2 models on average by 21.4% and 17.4%, respectively, as compared to either the agronomic or disease resistance traits, demonstrating the high potential of the multi-traits models in improving prediction accuracies.

Identification of Spring Wheat with Superior Agronomic Performance under Contrasting Nitrogen Managements Using Linear Phenotypic Selection Indices

Both the Linear Phenotypic Selection Index (LPSI) and the Restrictive Linear Phenotypic Selection Index (RLPSI) have been widely used to select parents and progenies, but the effect of economic weights on the selection parameters (the expected genetic gain, response to selection, and the correlation between the indices and genetic merits) have not been investigated in detail. Here, we (i) assessed combinations of 2304 economic weights using four traits (maturity, plant height, grain yield and grain protein content) recorded under four organically (low nitrogen) and five conventionally (high nitrogen) managed environments, (ii) compared single-trait and multi-trait selection indices (LPSI vs. RLPSI by imposing restrictions to the expected genetic gain of either yield or grain protein content), and (iii) selected a subset of about 10% spring wheat cultivars that performed very well under organic and/or conventional management systems. The multi-trait selection indices, with and without imposing restrictions, were superior to single trait selection. However, the selection parameters differed quite a lot depending on the economic weights, which suggests the need for optimizing the weights. Twenty-two of the 196 cultivars that showed superior performance under organic and/or conventional management systems were consistently selected using all five of the selected economic weights, and at least two of the selection scenarios. The selected cultivars belonged to the Canada Western Red Spring (16 cultivars), the Canada Northern Hard Red (3), and the Canada Prairie Spring Red (3), and required 83–93 days to maturity, were 72–100 cm tall, and produced from 4.0 to 6.2 t ha⁻¹ grain yield with 14.6–17.7% GPC. The selected cultivars would be highly useful, not only as potential trait donors for breeding under an organic management system, but also for other studies, including nitrogen use efficiency.

Genomic Prediction Accuracy of Stripe Rust in Six Spring Wheat Populations by Modeling Genotype by Environment Interaction

Some previous studies have assessed the predictive ability of genome-wide selection on stripe (yellow) rust resistance in wheat, but the effect of genotype by environment interaction (GEI) in prediction accuracies has not been well studied in diverse genetic backgrounds. Here, we compared the predictive ability of a model based on phenotypic data only (M1), the main effect of phenotype and molecular markers (M2), and a model that incorporated GEI (M3) using three cross-validations (CV1, CV2, and CV0) scenarios of interest to breeders in six spring wheat populations. Each population was evaluated at three to eight field nurseries and genotyped with either the DArTseq technology or the wheat 90K single nucleotide polymorphism arrays, of which a subset of 1,058- 23,795 polymorphic markers were used for the analyses. In the CV1 scenario, the mean prediction accuracies of the M1, M2, and M3 models across the six populations varied from −0.11 to −0.07, from 0.22 to 0.49, and from 0.19 to 0.48, respectively. Mean accuracies obtained using the M3 model in the CV1 scenario were significantly greater than the M2 model in two populations, the same in three populations, and smaller in one population. In both the CV2 and CV0 scenarios, the mean prediction accuracies of the three models varied from 0.53 to 0.84 and were not significantly different in all populations, except the Attila/CDC Go in the CV2, where the M3 model gave greater accuracy than both the M1 and M2 models. Overall, the M3 model increased prediction accuracies in some populations by up to 12.4% and decreased accuracy in others by up to 17.4%, demonstrating inconsistent results among genetic backgrounds that require considering each population separately. This is the first comprehensive genome-wide prediction study that investigated details of the effect of GEI on stripe rust resistance across diverse spring wheat populations.