Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Evidence relating cigarettes, cigars and pipes to cardiovascular disease and stroke: Meta-analysis of recent data from three regions

BACKGROUND

More recent data are required relating to disease risk for use of various smoked products and of other products containing nicotine. Earlier we published meta-analyses of recent results for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer on the relative risk (RR) of current compared to never product use for cigarettes, cigars and pipes based on evidence from North America, Europe and Japan. We now report corresponding up-to-date evidence for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke.

AIM

To estimate, using recent data, AMI, IHD and stroke RRs by region for current smoking of cigarettes, cigars and pipes.

METHODS

Publications in English from 2015 to 2020 were considered that, based on epidemiological studies in the three regions, estimated the current smoking RR of AMI, IHD or stroke for one or more of the three products. The studies should involve at least 100 cases of stroke or cardiovascular disease (CVD), not be restricted to populations with specific medical conditions, and should be of cohort or nested case-control study design or randomized controlled trials. A literature search was conducted on MEDLINE, examining titles and abstracts initially, and then full texts. Additional papers were sought from reference lists of selected papers, reviews and meta-analyses. For each study identified, we entered the most recent available data on current smoking of each product, as well as the characteristics of the study and the RR estimates. Combined RR estimates were derived using random-effects meta-analysis for stroke and, in the case of CVD, separately for IHD and AMI. For cigarette smoking, where far more data were available, heterogeneity was studied by a wide range of factors. For cigar and pipe smoking, a more limited heterogeneity analysis was carried out. A more limited assessment of variation in risk by daily number of cigarettes smoked was also conducted. Results were compared with those from previous meta-analyses published since 2000.

RESULTS

Current cigarette smoking: Ten studies gave a random-effects RR for AMI of 2.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.40-3.08], derived from 13 estimates between 1.47 and 4.72. Twenty-three studies gave an IHD RR of 2.01 (95%CI: 1.84-2.21), using 28 estimates between 0.81 and 4.30. Thirty-one studies gave a stroke RR of 1.62 (95%CI: 1.48-1.77), using 37 estimates from 0.66 to 2.91. Though heterogeneous, only two of the overall 78 RRs were below 1.0, 71 significantly (P < 0.05) exceeding 1.0. The heterogeneity was only partly explicable by the factors studied. Estimates were generally higher for females and for later-starting studies. They were significantly higher for North America than Europe for AMI, but not the other diseases. For stroke, the only endpoint with multiple Japanese studies, RRs were lower there than for Western studies. Adjustment for multiple factors tended to increase RRs. Our RR estimates and the variations by sex and region are consistent with earlier meta-analyses. RRs generally increased with amount smoked. Current cigar and pipe smoking: No AMI data were available. One North American study reported reduced IHD risk for non-exclusive cigar or pipe smoking, but considered few cases. Two North American studies found no increased stroke risk with exclusive cigar smoking, one reporting reduced risk for exclusive pipe smoking (RR 0.24, 95%CI: 0.06-0.91). The cigar results agree with an earlier review showing no clear risk increase for IHD or stroke.

CONCLUSION

Current cigarette smoking increases risk of AMI, IHD and stroke, RRs being 2.72, 2.01 and 1.62. The stroke risk is lower in Japan, no increase was seen for cigars/pipes.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation.

DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION

Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence.

CONCLUSIONS

A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.

Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

BACKGROUND

For smokers not intending to quit, switching to a reduced-risk nicotine product should be healthier than continuing smoking. We estimate the health impact, over the period 2000-2050, had the nicotine pouch ZYN hypothetically been introduced into the US in 2000. ZYN's toxicant profile and method of use is like that for Swedish snus, a product with known health effects much less than smoking.

METHODS

Our modelling approach is similar to others developed for estimating potential effects of new tobacco products. It starts with a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals in the year 2000 subdivided by age, sex, and smoking status (including years since quitting). They are followed annually accounting for births, net immigrations, deaths and product use changes, with follow-up carried out in the Base Case (ZYN not introduced) and Modified Case (ZYN introduced). Using informed assumptions about initiation, quitting and switching rates, distributions of the population over time are then constructed for each Case, and used to estimate product mortality based on assumptions about the relative risk according to product use.

RESULTS

Whereas in both Base and Modified Cases, the prevalence of any current product use is predicted to decline from about 22% to 10% during follow-up, in the Modified Case about 25% of current users use ZYN by 2050, about a quarter being dual users and the rest ZYN-only users. Over the 50 years, deaths at ages 35-84 from product use among the 100,000 are estimated as 249 less in the Modified than the Base Case, equivalent to about 700,000 less in the whole US. Sensitivity analyses varying individual parameter values confirm the benefits of switching to ZYN, which increase as either the switching rate to ZYN increases or the initiation rate of ZYN relative to smoking increases. Even assuming the reduction in excess mortality risk using ZYN use is 20% of that from smoking rather than the 3.5% assumed in the main analyses, the reduction in product-related deaths would still be 213, or about 600,000 in the US.

CONCLUSIONS

Although such model-based estimates involve uncertainties, the results suggest that introducing ZYN could substantially reduce product-related deaths.

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

Organic Collaborative Research Partnership Building: Researchers, Needle and Syringe Program Providers, and People Who Inject Drugs

(1) Background: People who inject drugs (PWID) and needle and syringe program (NSP) providers increasingly partner with researchers to explore harm reduction best practice. However, a paucity of research exists regarding how best to engage PWID and community NSP providers to generate the evidence for sustainable harm reduction services. (2) Aim: This study reports on our use of an organic community research partnership-building approach between researchers, NSP providers, and PWID in Canberra ACT, Australia. (3) Method: Survey participants included both PWID (n = 70) and NSP providers (n = 26) across primary (n = 2), secondary (n = 7), and outreach (n = 1) services in Canberra ACT. Applying an organic partnership-building strategy, we engaged with partners and adapted approaches according to information gained in the process of implementation. (4) Results: We found engaging in relationship building around partner priority activities created mutual understanding and trust premised in authenticity of the evolving partnership. Our organic approach, which included a partner audit of the research tools for relevance, resulted in high acceptance and enrolment into the research by NSP providers and PWID. Finally, we observed strong social capital building utilizing an organic approach for the sustainability of the partnership. (5) Conclusions: The results of this study provide evidence for the benefits of organic collaborative research partnership building with NSP providers and PWID for authentic service program implementation. Our approach to research partnership building resulted in strong relationships built on shared goals and objectives, mutual gains, and complementary expertise. We propose the wider use of organic approaches to developing collaborative research partnerships with NSP providers and PWID to enhance consumer responsiveness towards service provision.

Estimating the Population Health Impact of Recently Introduced Modified Risk Tobacco Products: A Comparison of Different Approaches

Introduction

Various approaches have been used to estimate the population health impact of introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP).

Aims and Methods

We aimed to compare and contrast aspects of models considering effects on mortality that were known to experts attending a meeting on models in 2018.

Results

Thirteen models are described, some focussing on e-cigarettes, others more general. Most models are cohort-based, comparing results with or without MRTP introduction. They typically start with a population with known smoking habits and then use transition probabilities either to update smoking habits in the “null scenario” or joint smoking and MRTP habits in an “alternative scenario”. The models vary in the tobacco groups and transition probabilities considered. Based on aspects of the tobacco history developed, the models compare mortality risks, and sometimes life-years lost and health costs, between scenarios. Estimating effects on population health depends on frequency of use of the MRTP and smoking, and the extent to which the products expose users to harmful constituents. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches are summarized.

Conclusions

Despite methodological differences, most modellers have assumed the increase in risk of mortality from MRTP use, relative to that from cigarette smoking, to be very low and have concluded that MRTP introduction is likely to have a beneficial impact. Further model development, supplemented by preliminary results from well-designed epidemiological studies, should enable more precise prediction of the anticipated effects of MRTP introduction.

Implications

There is a need to estimate the population health impact of introducing modified risk nicotine-containing products for smokers unwilling or unable to quit. This paper reviews a variety of modeling methodologies proposed to do this, and discusses the implications of the different approaches. It should assist modelers in refining and improving their models, and help toward providing authorities with more reliable estimates.

Comparing the preclinical risk profile of inhalable candidate and potential candidate modified risk tobacco products: A bridging use case

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Heated tobacco products tested for reduced exposure and reduced risk properties.

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Bridging opportunities for nonclinical results from two heated tobacco products.

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Similarly reduced impact on apical and molecular endpoints relative to cigarettes.

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Evidence evaluated along a “causal chain of events leading to disease” (CELSD).

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Representative assays along CELSD could support nonclinical substantial equivalence.

Cigarette smoking causes major preventable diseases, morbidity, and mortality worldwide. Smoking cessation and prevention of smoking initiation are the preferred means for reducing these risks. Less harmful tobacco products, termed modified-risk tobacco products (MRTP), are being developed as a potential alternative for current adult smokers who would otherwise continue smoking. According to a regulatory framework issued by the US Food and Drug Administration, a manufacturer must provide comprehensive scientific evidence that the product significantly reduces harm and the risk of tobacco-related diseases, in order to obtain marketing authorization for a new MRTP. For new tobacco products similar to an already approved predicate product, the FDA has foreseen a simplified procedure for assessing “substantial equivalence”. In this article, we present a use case that bridges the nonclinical evidence from previous studies demonstrating the relatively reduced harm potential of two heat-not-burn products based on different tobacco heating principles. The nonclinical evidence was collected along a “causal chain of events leading to disease” (CELSD) to systematically follow the consequences of reduced exposure to toxicants (relative to cigarette smoke) through increasing levels of biological complexity up to disease manifestation in animal models of human disease. This approach leverages the principles of systems biology and toxicology as a basis for further extrapolation to human studies. The experimental results demonstrate a similarly reduced impact of both products on apical and molecular endpoints, no novel effects not seen with cigarette smoke exposure, and an effect of switching from cigarettes to either MRTP that is comparable to that of complete smoking cessation. Ideally, a subset of representative assays from the presented sequence along the CELSD could be sufficient for predicting similarity or substantial equivalence in the nonclinical impact of novel products; this would require further validation, for which the present use case could serve as a starting point.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Population models have been developed to evaluate the impact of new tobacco products on the overall population. Reliable input parameters such as longitudinal tobacco use transitions are needed to quantify the net population health impact including the number of premature deaths prevented, additional life years, and changes in cigarette smoking prevalence.

METHODS

This secondary analysis assessed transition patterns from PATH wave 1 (2013-14) to wave 2 (2014-15) among adult exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and dual users. Transition probabilities were calculated by taking into account factors including cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. Multinomial logistic regression models were constructed to further evaluate factors associated with transition patterns.

RESULTS

Differential transition probabilities emerged among study subgroups when taking into account cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use histories and experimental or established use behaviors. For example, overall 45% of exclusive e-cigarette users in wave 1 continued using e-cigarettes exclusively in wave 2. However, we observed approximately 11 to 14% of wave 1 exclusive experimental e-cigarette users continued to use e-cigarette exclusively in wave 2, compared to about 62% of exclusive established e-cigarette users. The history of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use is another important factor associated with transition patterns. Among experimental e-cigarette users, 7.5% of individuals without a history of cigarette smoking transitioned to exclusive cigarette smoking, compared to 30% of individuals with a history of cigarette smoking. Additionally, 1.3% of exclusive cigarette smokers in wave 1 transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, with the highest transition probability (3.7%) observed in the established cigarette smoker with a history of e-cigarette use subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Product use histories and current use behaviors are important factors influencing transitions between product use states. Given that experimental users' transition behaviors may be more variable and more influenced by tobacco use history, long-term predictions made by population models could be improved by the use of transition probabilities from established users. As transition patterns might be changing over time, long-term transition patterns can be examined through analysis of future waves of PATH data.

Accelerating an end to smoking: a call to action on the eve of the FCTC’s COP9

Purpose

The World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) is the first treaty negotiated under the auspices of the WHO. This study aims to describe progress toward the framework’s goals, setbacks and strategies to update its articles to optimize outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach

A review of relevant literature, including papers in this special issue, forms the basis for identifying steps necessary to amplify the impact of the FCTC.

Findings

The WHO suggests that there are 1.3 billion users of tobacco globally. The expected deaths associated with tobacco use could be dramatically reduced by hundreds of millions between now and 2060 through measures that improve cessation and harm reduction support among adults. Additional steps needed to achieve the goals of the FCTC include developing new initiatives to address areas of profound neglect (for example, women); investing in global research and innovation; addressing the needs of vulnerable populations; and establishing a mechanism to fund priority actions required by low- and middle-income countries, including support for alternative livelihoods for smallholder farmers.

Practical implications

In November 2020, the WHO FCTC Parties will host their next Conference of the Parties (COP9) in the Netherlands. This paper aims to contribute to the needed policy decisions related to this meeting. Since acceptance of this article, the WHO FCTC team announced that doe to the COVID-19 pandemic COP9 has been rescheduled till November 2021.

Originality/value

There exists a need to prioritize the goals of tobacco control and offer clear strategies for its execution. This paper fills this niche via a thorough and up-to-date analysis of how to amend and enforce the FCTC.

Using data on snus use in Sweden to compare different modelling approaches to estimate the population health impact of introducing a smoke-free tobacco product

BACKGROUND

We have developed an approach for modelling the health impact of introducing new smoke-free tobacco products. We wished to compare its estimates with those of alternative approaches, when applied to snus, used in Sweden for many years.

METHODS

Modelling was restricted to men aged 30-79 years for 1980-2009 and to four smoking-related diseases. Mortality data were extracted for Sweden and other European countries. Published data provided Swedish prevalence estimates for combinations of never/former/current smoking and snus use, and smoking prevalence estimates for other European countries. Approach 1 compares mortality in Sweden and in other countries with a smoking prevalence similar to Sweden's prevalence of combined smoking/snus use. Approaches 2 and 3 compare mortality in Sweden with hypothetical mortality had snus users smoked. Approach 3 uses our health impact model, individuals starting with the tobacco prevalence of Sweden in 1980. Tobacco histories during 30-year follow-up were then estimated using transition probabilities, with risk derived using a negative exponential model. Approach 2 uses annual tobacco prevalence estimates coupled with estimates of relative risk of current and former smokers regardless of history. The main applications of Approaches 2 and 3 assume that only smoking affects mortality, though sensitivity analyses using Approach 3 allow for risk to vary in snus users and dual users.

RESULTS

Using Approach 2, estimated mortality increases in Sweden in 1980-2009 had snus not been introduced were: lung cancer 8786; COPD 1781; IHD 10,409; stroke 1720. The main Approach 3 estimates were similar (7931, 1969; 12,501; 1901). They decreased as risk in snus users and dual users increased. Approach 1 estimates differed wildly (77,762, 32,538; 77,438; 76,946), remaining very different following correction for differences between Sweden and the comparison countries in non-smoking-related disease mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Approach 1 is unreliable, accounting inadequately for non-tobacco factors affecting mortality. Approaches 2 and 3 provide reasonably similar approximate estimates of the mortality increase had snus not been available, but have differing advantages and disadvantages. Only Approach 3 considers tobacco history, but develops histories using tobacco transition probabilities, which is possibly less reliable than using estimated tobacco prevalences at each follow-up year.

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

Background: This was a pre-market, observational, actual use study with the Tobacco Heating System (THS), a candidate modified risk tobacco product. The main goal of the study was to describe THS adoption within current adult daily smokers by replicating the usage of THS in real-world conditions with participants being able to consume cigarettes, THS, and any other nicotine-containing products (e.g., e-cigarettes, cigars, etc.) ad libitum. Methods: This study assessed self-reported stick-by-stick consumption of THS compared with the use of commercial cigarettes over six weeks. The aim of the analysis was to identify potential predictors for adoption of THS using stepwise logistic regression analysis. Results: By the end of the observational period (in Week 6), 14.6% of participants (n=965) had adopted THS meaning that THS formed 70% or more of their total tobacco consumption. The main predictors of adoption were the liking of the smell, taste, aftertaste, and ease of use of THS. The proportion of adoption was higher in participants aged 44 years and older and in Hispanic or Latino adult smokers. Additionally, adoption of THS was more likely in participants who had never attempted to quit smoking and in participants who smoked up to 10 cigarettes per day. Finally, the adoption of THS was higher in participants who consumed both regular and menthol THS compared with those who consumed only one THS variant. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the introduction of THS in the U.S. has the potential to result in adoption by current adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke cigarettes, and that the adoption of THS is unlikely to result in an increase of tobacco consumption. Post-marketing studies will provide further insights on THS adoption and THS use patterns to allow assessment of the impact of the THS at the individual and the overall population level.

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

Background: This was a pre-market actual use study with the Tobacco Heating System (THS), a candidate modified risk tobacco product, conducted with adult smokers in eight cities in the United States. The main goal of the study was to describe THS adoption in a real-world setting. The aim of this analysis was to identify potential predictors for adoption of THS using stepwise logistic regression method. Methods: This actual use study was an observational study assessing self-reported stick-by-stick consumption of the THS product compared with the use of commercial cigarettes over six weeks. The study aimed at replicating the usage of THS in real-world conditions with participants being able to consume cigarettes, THS, and any other nicotine-containing products (e.g., e-cigarettes, cigars, etc.) ad libitum. Results: 14.6% of participants adopted THS, which comprised 70% or more of their total tobacco consumption by the end of the observational period (in Week 6). The main predictors of adoption were the liking of the smell, taste, aftertaste, and ease of use of THS. The proportion of adoption was higher in participants aged 44 years and older and in Hispanic or Latino adult smokers. Additionally, adoption of THS was more likely in participants who had never attempted to quit smoking and in participants who smoked up to 10 cigarettes per day. Finally, the adoption of THS was higher in participants who consumed both regular and menthol THS compared with those who consumed only one THS variant. Conclusions: The main predictors of THS adoption were positive sensory assessment and the ease of use. Socio-demographic characteristics and smoking habits appeared much less important. Post-marketing studies will provide further insights on the impact of the THS at the individual and the overall population level.