Prediction and Potential Spatially Explicit Spread of COVID-19 in Mexico's Megacity North Periphery

Spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico at the municipality level

In recent history, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks affecting humanity. The World Health Organization has defined the outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic, and the massive growth of the number of infected cases in a short time has caused enormous pressure on medical systems. Mexico surpassed 3.7 million confirmed infections and 285,000 deaths on October 23, 2021. We analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico using the georeferenced confirmed cases aggregated at the municipality level. We computed weekly Moran’s I index to assess spatial autocorrelation over time and identify clusters of the disease using the “flexibly shaped spatial scan” approach. Finally, we compared Euclidean, cost, resistance distances and gravitational model to select the best-suited approach to predict inter-municipality contagion. We found that COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico is characterised by clusters evolving in space and time as parallel epidemics. The gravitational distance was the best model to predict newly infected municipalities though the predictive power was relatively low and varied over time. This study helps us understand the spread of the epidemic over the Mexican territory and gives insights to model and predict the epidemic behaviour.