The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China

Modification effects of long-term air pollution levels on the relationship between short-term exposure to meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease: A distributed lag non-linear model-based study in Shandong Province, China

The occurrence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is closely related to meteorological factors. However, location-specific characteristics, such as persistent air pollution, may increase the complexity of the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD, and studies across different areas and populations are largely lacking. In this study, a two-stage multisite time-series analysis was conducted using data from 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2019. In the first stage, we obtained the cumulative exposure-response curves of meteorological factors and the number of HFMD cases for each city. In the second stage, we merged the estimations from the first stage and included city-specific air pollution variables to identify significant effect modifiers and how they modified the short-term relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors. High concentrations of air pollutants may reduce the risk effects of high average temperature on HFMD and lead to a distinct peak in the cumulative exposure-response curve, while lower concentrations may increase the risk effects of high relative humidity. Furthermore, the effects of average wind speed on HFMD were different at different levels of air pollution. The differences in modification effects between subgroups were mainly manifested in the diversity and quantity of significant modifiers. The modification effects of long-term air pollution levels on the relationship between sunshine hours and HFMD may vary significantly depending on geographical location. The people in age＜3 and male groups were more susceptible to long-term air pollution. These findings contribute to a deepening understanding of the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD and provide evidence for relevant public health decision-making.

The threaten of typhoons to the health of residents in inland areas: a study on the vulnerability of residents to death risk during typhoon "Lekima" : In Jinan, China

BACKGROUND

Studies had suggested increased risk of death of residents was associated with typhoons, particularly coastal regions. However, these findings ignored the impact of inland typhoons on the health of residents, especially the indirect death risk caused by typhoons. This study aimed to investigate the acute death risk of residents during inland typhoon Lekima in Jinan, further identify vulnerable populations and areas.

METHODS

We selected the daily death from 11 to 27th August 2019 in Jinan as case period, and conducted a time-stratified case-crossover design to match the contemporaneous data from 2016 to 2018 as control period. We used the generalized linear Poisson models to estimate the related effects of death risk during typhoon Lekima and lag days.

RESULTS

During the Lekima typhoon month, there were 3,366 deaths occurred in Jinan. Compared to unexposed periods, the acute death risk of non-accidental diseases (especially circulatory diseases), female and the older adults increased significantly in the second week after the typhoon. The maximum significant effect of circulatory disease deaths, female and older adult deaths were appeared on lag9, lag9, and lag13 respectively. And the typhoon-associated RR were 1.19 (95%CI:1.05,1.34), 1.28 (95%CI:1.08,1.52), and 1.22 (95%CI:1.06,1.42) respectively. The acute death risk of residents living in TQ and CQ increased significantly on Lag2 and Lag6 after the typhoon, respectively, while those living in LX, LC, HY, JY, and SH occurred from Lag 8 to Lag 13 after the typhoon. LC lasted the longest days.

CONCLUSIONS

Typhoons would increase the vulnerability of residents living in Jinan which mainly occurred from the seventh day after the typhoon. Residents suffering from non-accidental diseases (circulatory diseases), female and the older adults were more vulnerable. The vulnerability of TQ and CQ occurred on Lag2 and Lag6 after typhoon Lekima, respectively, and the other areas except ZQ and PY occurred from Lag 8 to Lag 13. LC lasted the longest duration. Our findings emphasized the importance of the emergency response, which would help policymakers to identify vulnerable regions and populations accurately during typhoons and formulate the emergency response plan.

Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China

BACKGROUND

There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden.

METHODS

Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status.

RESULTS

A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.

Non-linear association between daily mean temperature and children's hand foot and mouth disease in Chongqing, China

Chongqing was seriously affected by hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), but the relationships between daily mean temperature and the incidence of HFMD remain unclear. This study used distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the effect of daily mean temperature on the incidence of HFMD in children aged < 5 years in Chongqing. Daily HFMD data from 2012 to 2019 in Chongqing were retrieved from the notifiable infectious disease surveillance system. A total of 413,476 HFMD cases aged < 5 years were reported in Chongqing from 2012 to 2019. The exposure-response curve of daily mean temperature and daily HFMD cases was wavy-shaped. The relative risks (RRs) increased as daily mean temperature below 5.66 °C or above 9.43 °C, with two peaks at 16.10 °C and 26.68 °C. The RRs reached the highest when the daily mean temperature at 26.68 °C on the current day (RR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32), followed by the daily mean temperature at 16.10 °C at lag 5 days (RR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.08). The RRs for girls and daycare children were much higher than those for boys and scattered children, respectively. Taken together, daily mean temperature has strong effect on HFMD in children aged < 5 years old in Chongqing, particularly for girls and daycare children.

The effect of ambient temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease in Qingdao, China, 2014-2018

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a kind of infection gastrointestinal disease. The present study aims to explore the association between ambient temperature and HFMD in Qingdao. A distributed lag nonlinear model with Poisson distribution was adopted to explore the effects of daily mean temperature on HFMD incidence. Our results found that the high temperature had acute and short-term effects and then declined rapidly along the lag days, with the maximum risk occurring 0 day of exposure. Compared with low temperature, higher effects were observed for high-temperature exposure. Overall, we found that the association between temperature and HFMD incidence was non-linear, exhibiting an approximate "J" shape, with peak value occurring at 30.5℃ (RR = 2.208, 95% CI: 1.995-2.444). Our findings suggest that ambient temperature is significantly associated with the incidence of HFMD in Qingdao. Monitoring ambient temperature changes is an appropriate recommendation to prevent HFMD.

Dynamic modeling and data fitting of climatic and environmental factors and people's behavior factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanghai, China

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing.

Methods

Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD. Climatic and environmental factors impact on transmission rate β ( t ) is modeled through DLNM and then substituted into this relationship to establish the dynamic model with reported case data to test for validity.

Results

Relative risk (RR) of HFMD infection increases with increasing temperature. The RR of infection first increases and then decreases with the increase of relative humidity. For the model fitting HFMD dynamic, time average basic reproduction number [ R 0 ] of Stage I (without vaccine) and Stage II (with EV71 vaccine) are 1.9362 and 1.5478, respectively. Temperature has the highest explanatory power, followed by school opening and closing, and relative humidity.

Conclusion

We obtain three conclusions about the prevention and control of HFMD. 1) According to the temperature, relative humidity and school start time, the outbreak peak of HFMD should be warned and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken. 2) Reduce high indoor temperature when more than 31.5 oC, and increase low relative humidity when less than 77.5% by opening the window for ventilation, adding houseplants, using air conditioners and humidifiers, reducing the incidence of HFMD and the number of infections. 3) The risk of HFMD transmission during winter vacations is higher than during summer vacations. It is necessary to strengthen the publicity of HFMD prevention knowledge before winter vacations and strengthen the disinfection control measures during winter vacations in children's hospitals, school classrooms, and other places where children gather to reduce the frequency of staff turnover during winter vacations.

Association between traffic-related air pollution and osteoporotic fracture hospitalizations in inland and coastal areas: evidences from the central areas of two cities in Shandong Province, China

Our result showed that short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs) might increase the risk of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures. It was suggested that government should formulate emission reduction policies to protect the health of citizens.

INTRODUCTION

As the main source of urban air pollution in China, exhaust emissions of motor vehicles have been linked to adverse health outcomes, but evidence of the relationship between short-term exposure to TRAPs and osteoporotic fractures is still relatively rare.

METHODS

In this study, a total of 5044 inpatients from an inland city (Jinan) and a coastal city (Qingdao), two cities with developed transportation in Shandong Province, were included. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to investigate the association between TRAPs and hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures. The stratified analyses were performed by gender and age.

RESULTS

Positive associations between TRAPs and osteoporotic fracture hospitalizations were observed. We found that short-term exposure to TRAPs was associated with increased numbers of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures. PM2.5 and PM10 were statistically significant associated with hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures at both single-day and multiday lag structures only in Qingdao, with the strongest associations at lag06 and lag07 [RR=1.0446(95%CI: 1.0018,1.0891) for PM2.5, RR=1.0328(95%CI: 1.0084,1.0578) for PM10]. For NO2 and CO, we found significant associations at lag4 in the single lag structure in Jinan [RR=1.0354 (95%CI: 1.0071, 1.0646) for NO2, RR=1.0014 (95%CI: 1.0002, 1.0025) for CO], while only CO at lag4 was significantly associated with hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures in Qingdao [1.0038 (1.0012, 1.0063)]. Stratified analyses indicated that the associations were stronger in females and older individuals (65 + years).

CONCLUSION

This study implied that short-term exposure to TRAPs pollution was associated with an increased risk of hospitalizations for osteoporotic fractures. Female patients and patients aged 65 + years appeared to be more vulnerable to TRAPs, suggesting that poor air quality is a modifiable risk factor for osteoporotic fractures.

City-level meteorological conditions modify the relationships between exposure to multiple air pollutants and the risk of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Sichuan Basin, China

Background

Several studies have examined the effects of city-level meteorological conditions on the associations between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) risk. However, evidence that city-level meteorological conditions modify air pollutant-HFMD associations is lacking.

Methods

For each of the 17 cities in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained estimates of the relationship between exposures to multiple air pollutants and childhood HFMD risk by using a unified distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Multivariate meta-regression models were used to identify the effects of city-level meteorological conditions as effect modifiers. Finally, we conducted subgroup analyses of age and sex to explore whether the modification effects varied in different subgroups.

Results

The associations between PM2.5/CO/O3 and HFMD risk showed moderate or substantial heterogeneity among cities (I 2 statistics: 48.5%, 53.1%, and 61.1%). Temperature conditions significantly modified the PM2.5-HFMD association, while relative humidity and rainfall modified the O3-HFMD association. Low temperatures enhanced the protective effect of PM2.5 exposure against HFMD risk [PM2.5 <32.7  μg/m3 or PM2.5 >100  μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: relative risk (RR) = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.03-0.60]. Low relative humidity increased the adverse effect of O3 exposure on HFMD risk (O3 >128.7 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: RR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.48-4.50). However, high rainfall decreased the risk of HFMD due to O3 exposure (O3: 14.1-41.4  μg/m3). In addition, the modification effects of temperature and relative humidity differed in the female and 3-5  years-old subgroups.

Conclusion

Our findings revealed moderate or substantial heterogeneity in multiple air pollutant-HFMD relationships. Temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall modified the relationships between PM2.5 or O3 exposure and HFMD risk.

Influence of social and meteorological factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sichuan Province

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by a variety of enteroviruses remains a major public health problem in China. Previous studies have found that social factors may contribute to the inconsistency of the relationship patterns between meteorological factors and HFMD, but the conclusions are inconsistent. The influence of social factors on the association between meteorology and HFMD is still less well understood. We aimed to analyze whether social factors affected the effect of meteorological factors on HFMD in Sichuan Province.

METHOD

We collected daily data on HFMD, meteorological factors and social factors in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2017. First, we used a Bayesian spatiotemporal model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the exposure-lag-response association between meteorological factors and HFMD. Second, by constructing the interaction of meteorological factors and social factors in the above model, the changes in the relative risk (RR) under different levels of social factors were evaluated.

RESULTS

The cumulative exposure curves for average temperature, relative humidity, and HFMD were shaped like an inverted "V" and a "U" shape. As the average temperature increased, the RR increased and peaked at 19 °C (RR 1.020 [95% confidence interval CI 1.004-1.050]). The urbanization rate, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population density, birth rate, number of beds in health care centers and number of kindergartens interacted with relative humidity. With the increase in social factors, the correlation curve between relative humidity and HFMD changed from an "S" shape to a "U" shape.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative humidity and average temperature increased the risk of HFMD within a certain range, and social factors enhanced the impact of high relative humidity. These results could provide insights into the combined role of environmental factors in HFMD and useful information for regional interventions.

Modified effects of air pollutants on the relationship between temperature variability and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zibo City, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a great disease burden in China. However, there are few studies on the relationship between temperature variability (TV) and HFMD. Moreover, whether air pollutions have modified effects on this relationship is still unknown. Therefore, this study aims to explore the modified effects of air pollutants on TV-HFMD association in Zibo City, China. Daily data of HFMD cases, meteorological factors, and air pollutants from 2015 to 2019 were collected for Zibo City. TV was estimated by calculating standard deviation of minimum and maximum temperatures over the exposure days. We used generalized additive model to estimate the association between TV and HFMD. The modified effects of air pollutants were assessed by comparing the estimated TV-HFMD associations between different air stratums. We found that TV increased the risk of HFMD. The effect was strongest at TV03 (4 days of exposure), when the incidence of HFMD increased by 3.6% [95% CI: 1.3-5.9%] for every 1℃ increases in TV. Males, children aged 0-4 years, were more sensitive to TV. We found that sulfur dioxide (SO₂) enhanced TV's effects on all considered exposure days, while ozone (O₃) reduced TV's effects on some exposure days in whole concerned population. However, we did not detect significant effect modification by particulate matter less than 10 microns in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀). These findings are of significance in developing policies and public health practices to reduce the risks of HFMD by integrating changes in temperatures and air pollutants.

The effect of daily mean temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease and the source of regional heterogeneity in Chongqing, China, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious infectious disease which has become a public health problem. A multi-regional study was conducted in this study to explore the relationship between temperature and HFMD in different regions and the source of heterogeneity, and further detect the effect modifiers such as socio-economic factors, medical and health factors and meteorological factors.

METHODS

The data on daily reported HFMD cases and meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 in Chongqing were collected. Thirty-eight districts and counties of Chongqing were divided into 6 regions. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the effect of daily mean temperature on HFMD at region level with the pooled effect estimates from multivariate meta-regression model analysis. Stratified analyses by gender, age and children's type were also conducted. Potential modifiers were considered in meta regression to explore the source of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

There were nonlinear relationships with an inverted V-shape between temperature and HFMD. A maximum cumulative relative risk (CRR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.34) peaked at 23.8 °C, and the risk appeared immediately and lasted for the whole 14 days. Compared with other groups, warm temperature had a stronger effect on children aged 0-1 and scattered children, while cold temperature had a stronger effect on female, children aged 3-6 and childcare children with an M-shape. We found that socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors were significantly associated with heterogeneity. Density of medical technical personnel, urbanization rate and density of health care institutions were the main modifiers for explaining heterogeneity of 26.10%, 24.90% and 24.86% respectively which were revealed by meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant nonlinear correlation between temperature and HFMD. Compared with other groups, children aged 0-1 and scattered children were more susceptible to warm temperature, while female, children aged 3-6 and childcare children were more susceptible to cold temperature. Socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors may be the source of the heterogeneity. Therefore, local governments should consider different temperature-HFMD relationships between different regions and populations when formulating appropriate preventive measures.

Comparison of different predictive models on HFMD based on weather factors in Zibo city, Shandong Province, China

The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.

Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting the Incidence of HFMD Combined and Uncombined with Exogenous Meteorological Variables in Ningbo, China

Background: This study intends to identify the best model for predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Ningbo by comparing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables. Methods: The data of daily HFMD incidence in Ningbo from January 2014 to November 2017 were set as the training set, and the data of December 2017 were set as the test set. ARIMA and LSTM models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables were adopted to fit the daily incidence of HFMD by using the data of the training set. The forecasting performances of the four fitted models were verified by using the data of the test set. Root mean square error (RMSE) was selected as the main measure to evaluate the performance of the models. Results: The RMSE for multivariate LSTM, univariate LSTM, ARIMA and ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Input Variables) was 10.78, 11.20, 12.43 and 14.73, respectively. The LSTM model with exogenous meteorological variables has the best performance among the four models and meteorological variables can increase the prediction accuracy of LSTM model. For the ARIMA model, exogenous meteorological variables did not increase the prediction accuracy but became the interference factor of the model. Conclusions: Multivariate LSTM is the best among the four models to fit the daily incidence of HFMD in Ningbo. It can provide a scientific method to build the HFMD early warning system and the methodology can also be applied to other communicable diseases.

Association of Short-Term Exposure to Meteorological Factors and Risk of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Background: Inconsistencies were observed in studies on the relationship between short-term exposure to meteorological factors and the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). This systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed to assess the overall effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD to help clarify these inconsistencies and serve as a piece of evidence for policy makers to determine relevant risk factors. (2) Methods: Articles published as of 24 October 2020, were searched in the four databases, namely, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and MEDLINE. We applied a meta-analysis to assess the impact of ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, and sunshine duration on the incidence of HFMD. We conducted subgroup analyses by exposure metrics, exposure time resolution, regional climate, national income level, gender, and age as a way to seek the source of heterogeneity. (3) Results: Screening by the given inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 28 studies were included in the analysis. We observed that the incidence of HFMD based on the single-day lag model is significantly associated with ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed. In the cumulative lag model, ambient temperature and relative humidity significantly increased the incidence of HFMD as well. Subgroup analysis showed that extremely high temperature and relative humidity significantly increased the risk of HFMD. Temperate regions, high-income countries, and children under five years old are major risk factors for HFMD. (4) Conclusions: Our results suggest that various meteorological factors can increase the incidence of HFMD. Therefore, the general public, especially susceptible populations, should pay close attention to weather changes and take protective measures in advance.

Short-term effects of meteorological factors, air pollution, and sunspot on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Tianjin, China: a new time series regression, 2014-2018

This study is aimed at defining the relationship between a set of environmental factors and childhood HFMD and then at estimating the related effect. The 16 environmental factors included meteorological, air pollution, and sunspot. A traditional TSR modified by using susceptible-infectious-recovery models and distribution lag nonlinear model was applied to estimate the short-term effects of daily environmental factors on children HFMD occurrence in 2014-2018 with adjustment of potential confounding factors. A total of 70,027 children aged 0-15 years with HFMD were enrolled. No significant effect was observed for daily sunspot numbers and average visibility. We found positive effects of the ambient average temperature, with an approximately m-shaped curve of the overall cumulative relationship, peaking at 25.6 °C with a relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95% confidence intervals 1.21-1.73). The largest RR value of hot effect was achieved on the current day and then decreased by 2 days (total group, male group, and scatter group) or 1 day (female group and nursery group), and the effect lasted about 6 to 8 days from the lag 4 or lag 6 day. A greater association of temperature with HFMD for the female group and the scattered group was observed. This study suggests that ambient average temperature might be a risk factor for children HFMD in Tianjin. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Quantifying the risk of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) attributable to meteorological factors in East China: A time series modelling study

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread infectious disease in China. Associated meteorological factors have been widely studied, but their attributable risks have not been well quantified.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to quantify the HFMD burden attributable to temperature and other meteorological factors.

METHODS

The daily counts of HFMD and meteorological factors in all 574 counties of East China were obtained for the period from 2009 to 2015. The exposure-lag-response relationships between meteorological factors and HFMD were quantified by using a distributed lag non-linear model for each county and the estimates from all the counties were then pooled using a multivariate mete-regression model. Attributable risks were estimated for meteorological variables according to the exposure-lag-response relationships obtained before.

RESULTS

The study included 4,058,702 HFMD cases. Non-optimal values of meteorological factors were attributable to approximately one third of all HFMD cases, and the attributable numbers of non-optimal ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hours were 815,942 (95% CI: 796,361-835,888), 291,759 (95% CI: 226,183-358,494), 92,060 (95% CI: 59,655-124,738) and 62,948 (95% CI: 20,621-105,773), respectively. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and HFMD was non-linear with an approximate "M" shape. High temperature had a greater influence on HFMD than low temperature did. There was a geographical heterogeneity related to water body, and more cases occurred in days with moderate high and low temperatures than in days with extreme temperature. The effects of meteorological factors on HFMD were generally consistent across subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-optimal temperature is the leading risk factor of HFMD in East China, and moderate hot and moderate cold days had the highest risk. Developing subgroup-targeted and region-specific programs may minimize the adverse consequences of non-optimum weather on HFMD risk.

The modification effect of the diurnal temperature range on the exposure-response relationship between temperature and pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence suggests that the diurnal temperature range (DTR) could modify the temperature-disease relationship for those environmentally-related infectious diseases. However, there is a lack of evidence on the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). In this study, we thoroughly examined this hypothesis via a nationwide study.

METHOD

We collected the daily time series of HFMD cases and meteorological factors of 143 cities in mainland China from 2009 to 2014. For each city, we calculated the arithmetic average of the meteorological factors as a proxy for the climatic differences. We then performed two-stage time series analyses for four different climatic regions. Specifically, a distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to estimate the temperature-HFMD relationship for each city, and then a multivariate meta-regression was implemented to examine whether the DTR could explain the potential heterogeneity as an effect modifier. In addition, we compared the modification effect of the DTR with those of other climatic factors.

RESULT

We found a significant modification effect of DTR on the temperature-HFMD relationship in the moderate-temperature region. Besides, the modification effect was only observed at hot temperatures. Comparing the maximum temperature (32.2 °C) to the median temperature (11.9 °C), the risk ratio was 1.60 (1.33, 1.92) when DTR was in the 10th percentile (6.8 °C) and 0.81 (0.69, 0.96) when the DTR was in the 90th percentile (11.8 °C). By comparing DTR with other climatic variables, we found that the DTR had the best performance in improving the model fit (ΔQAIC= 10.1) and reducing the heterogeneity (ΔI² = 3.1%) in the multivariate meta-regression.

CONCLUSION

Our findings verified that DTR can modify the temperature-HFMD relationship. Besides, our findings also implied that DTR could be used as a proxy variable to comprehensively reflect the modification effects of multiple climatic factors.

Temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease in California: An exploratory analysis of emergency department visits by season, 2005-2013

BACKGROUND

For the past decade, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), caused by entero and coxsackie viruses, has been spreading in Asia, particularly among children, overloading healthcare settings and creating economic hardships for parents. Recent studies have found meteorological factors, such as temperature, are associated with HFMD in Asia. However, few studies have explored the relationship in the United States, although HFMD cases have steadily increased recently. As concerns of climate change grow, we explored the association between temperature and HFMD admissions to the Emergency Department (ED) in California.

METHODS

Weekly counts of HFMD for 16 California climate zones were collected from 2005 to 2013. We calculated weekly temperature for each climate zone using an inverse distance-weighting method. For each climate zone stratified by season, we conducted a time-series using Poisson regression models. We adjusted models for weekly averaged relative humidity, average number of HFMD cases in previous weeks and long-term temporal trends. Climate zone estimates were combined to obtain an overall seasonal estimate. We attempted stratified analyses by region, race/ethnicity, and sex to identify sensitive subpopulations.

RESULTS

Risk of ED visits for HFMD per 1 °F increase in mean temperature during the same week increased 2.00% (95% confidence intervals 1.15, 2.86%) and 2.35% (1.38, 3.33%) during the warm and cold seasons, respectively. The coastal region showed a higher, though not statistically different, association during the cold season [3.18% (1.99, 4.39)] than the warm season [1.64% (0.47, 2.82)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated an association between temperature and ED visits for HFMD, with variation by season and region. Thus, the causative pathogen's ability to persist in the atmosphere may vary by season. Furthermore, the mild and wet winter in the coastal region of California may contribute to different results than studies in Asia. With the onset of climate change, HFMD cases will likely grow in California, warranting further investigation on this relationship, including new populations at-risk.

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily incidence of pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, 2014-2016: a distributed lag nonlinear model

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has high prevalence around the world, with serious consequences for children. Due to the long survival period of HFMD virus in ambient air, air pollutants may play a critical role in HFMD epidemics. We collected data on daily cases of HFMD among children aged 0–14 years in Ningbo City between 2014 and 2016. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the effects of particulate matter (PM_2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) on the daily incidence of HFMD among children, with analyses stratified by gender and age. Compared with moderate levels of air pollution, high SO₂ levels had a relative risk (RR) of 2.32 (95% CI 1.42–3.79) and high NO₂ levels had a RR of 2.01 (95% CI 1.22–3.31). The RR of O₃ was 2.12 (95% CI 1.47–3.05) and that of PM_2.5 was 0.77 (95% CI 0.64–0.92) at moderate levels of air pollution. Specifically, high levels of SO₂ and NO₂ had RRs of 2.39 (95% CI 1.44–3.96) and 2.02 (95% CI 1.21–3.39), respectively, among 0–4-year-old children, while high O₃ had an RR of 2.31 (95% CI 1.09–4.89) among 5–14-year-old children. Our findings suggest significant associations of high SO₂ and NO₂ levels and moderate O₃ levels in HFMD epidemics, and also indicate that air pollution causes lagged effects on HFMD epidemics. Our study provides practical and useful data for targeted prevention and control of HMFD based on environmental evidence.

Temporal relationships between climate variables and hand-foot-mouth disease: a multi-province study in the Mekong Delta Region, Vietnam

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an emerging infectious disease that affects thousands of children every year in Vietnam, especially in the Mekong Delta Region (MDR). This study aims to analyse both provincial and regional level effects of climate factors on HFMD in multiple provinces of this high-risk region. Generalized linear models were used to analyse the daily effects of average temperature, humidity and rainfall on HFMD incidence in each province (provincial-level effects), and random-effect meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled effect size of these climate-HFMD associations (regional-level effects). Daily effects of the climate factors on HFMD were found at both provincial level and regional level. At provincial level, temperature and humidity had statistically significant positive associations with HFMD while rainfall had both positive and negative associations with HFMD at different lag days. At regional level, temperature and humidity were positively associated with HFMD at lag 0 days (1.7%; 95%CI 0.1%-3.3%) and at lag 3 days (0.3%; 95%CI 0.1%-0.5%), respectively. In contrast, rainfall was found to be negatively associated with HFMD at lag 5 days (- 0.3%; 95%CI - 0.4% to - 0.1%). Heterogeneities of the effects of rainfall on HFMD were found to be higher than those of temperature or humidity. This is the first study to address the climate-HFMD associations in multiple provinces of the MDR. These associations draw attention to climate-related health issues and will help in developing an environment-based early warning system for HFMD prevention and control.

Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) raises an urgent public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China. The associations between weather factors and HFMD have been widely studied but with inconsistent results. Moreover, previous studies utilizing ecological design could not rule out the bias of exposure misclassification and unobserved confounders.

METHODS

We used case-crossover analysis to assess the associations of weather factors on HFMD. Individual HFMD cases from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong were collected and cases located within 10 km of the meteorological monitoring sites were included. Lag effects were examined through the previous 7 days. In addition, we explored the variability by changing the distance within 20 km and 30 km.

RESULTS

We observed associations between HFMD and weather factors, including temperature and relative humidity. An approximately U-shaped relationship was observed for the associations of temperature on HFMD across the same day and the previous 7 days, while an approximately exponential-shaped was seen for relative humidity. Statistically significant increases in rates of HFMD were associated with each 10-unit increases in temperature [Excess rate (ER): 7.7%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.9, 11.7%] and relative humidity (ER: 1.9%; 95% CI: 0.7, 3.0%) on lag days 0-6, when assessing within 10 km of the monitoring sites. Potential thresholds for temperature (30.0 °C) and relative humidity (70.3%) detected showed associations with HFMD. The associations remained robust for 20 km and 30 km.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that temperature and relative humidity are significantly associated with the increased rates of HFMD. Thresholds and lag effects were observed between weather factors and HFMD. Our findings are useful for planning on targeted prevention and control of HFMD.

Spatial-temporal variation and risk factor analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children under 5 years old in Guangxi, China

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence is a critical challenge to disease control and prevention in parts of China, particularly Guangxi. However, the association between socioeconomic factors and meteorological factors on HFMD is still unclear.

METHODS

This study applied global and local Moran's I to examine the spatial pattern of HFMD and series analysis to explore the temporal pattern. The effects of meteorological factors and socioeconomic factors on HFMD incidence in Guangxi, China were analyzed using GeoDetector Model.

RESULTS

This study collected 45,522 cases from 87 counties in Guangxi during 2015, among which 43,711 cases were children aged 0-4 years. Temporally, there were two HFMD risk peaks in 2015. One peak was in September with 7890 cases. The other appeared in May with 4687 cases of HFMD. A high-risk cluster was located in the valley areas. The tertiary industry, precipitation and second industry had more influence than other risk factors on HFMD incidence with explanatory powers of 0.24, 0.23 and 0.21, respectively. The interactive effect of any two risk factors would enhance the risk of HFMD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that precipitation and tertiary industry factors might have stronger effects on the HFMD incidence in Guangxi, China, compared with other factors. High-risk of HFMD was identified in the valley areas characterized by high temperature and humidity. Local government should pay more attention and strengthen public health services level in this area.

Impact of PM10 and meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in female children in Ningbo, China: a spatiotemporal and time-series study

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a viral illness that is considered a critical public health challenge worldwide. Previous studies have demonstrated that meteorological parameters are significantly related to the incidence of HFMD in children; however, few studies have focused only on female children. This study quantified the associations of HFMD incidence with meteorological parameters and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm) among female children. Data were collected on daily HFMD cases, meteorological variables, and PM₁₀ levels in Ningbo, China, from January 2012 to December 2016. Data were assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution. A total of 59,809 female children aged 0-15 years with HFMD were enrolled. The results showed that highest relative risk (RR) of HFMD for temperature was 3 °C and the lag effect was 3 days. The highest RR for PM₁₀ was 80 mg/m³ and the lag effect was 5 days. Spatial analysis showed that female HFMD incidence was mainly concentrated in the suburban of Ningbo city indicating that female children in this area should be more paid attention on avoiding this disease outbreak. Our findings suggest that HFMD prevention strategies should focus more attention on local meteorological parameters.

Interactions between climate factors and air pollution on daily HFMD cases: A time series study in Guangdong, China

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have shown that climate factors and air pollution are associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics. However, the interaction between air pollution and climate factors remains unknown.

METHODS

Daily HFMD counts from 2009 through 2012 in Guangdong were collected. We used distributed lag non-linear models to assess the associations of climate factors and air pollution on HFMD cases. The effects of climate factors were stratified by air pollution stratum to examine the interaction effect of air quality index (AQI) and temperature, as well as relative humidity. In addition, we explored the variability across gender groups.

RESULTS

We observed associations between HFMD cases and environmental factors, including temperature, relative humidity, and AQI. The highest relative risks (RR) were observed at the middle level of temperature and AQI, and high level of relative humidity. The effects for the interaction between AQI and climate factors on HFMD cases were also statistically observed. Compared with low level temperatures (≤23.5 °C), high level temperatures (>23.5 °C) had a RR of 1.486 (95%CI: 1.469,1.503) on days with "good" air quality (AQI ≤ 46), and RR of 1.013 (95%CI: 1.003,1.023) on days with "moderate" air quality (AQI > 46). For relative humidity, the high level (>77%) had a RR of 1.082 (95%CI: 1.076,1.089) on days with "good" air quality, and RR of 1.039 (95%CI: 1.033,1.046) on days with "moderate" air quality. The associations and the interactions remained robust for males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that climate factors and air pollution imposed lagged and non-linear effects on HFMD epidemics. The effects of climate factors on health potentially vary by AQI. Our study is practical and useful for targeted prevention and control, and provides environmental-based evidence.

Analysis of the effect of PM10 on hand, foot and mouth disease in a basin terrain city

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection that causes a substantial disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region. Various climate variables, such as humidity and temperature, have been associated with HFMD. However, few studies have assessed the impact of PM₁₀ on childhood HFMD. This study investigated the association between PM₁₀ and HFMD. We fitted a standard distributed lag non-linear model to investigate the temporal lagged relationship between PM₁₀ and HFMD, and then further assessed whether this relationship varied by gender and pathogen. Between 2011 and 2015, a total of 122,564 HFMD cases under 15 years of age were reported in Chengdu. The PM₁₀-HFMD associations were shown to be non-linear in all subgroups, with the peak at 101–218 μg/m³. Male children were more sensitive to PM₁₀ effects. For pathogen-specific relative risks, we found that the risk estimates were generally higher in cases of CVA16 infection. Our study provides evidence that PM₁₀ increases the risk of HFMD. Authorities and parents should be fully aware of the impact of PM₁₀ on childhood HFMD. Furthermore, appropriate protective measures should be taken to reduce risks.

Exploring spatiotemporal nonstationary effects of climate factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease using Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model in Sichuan, China

BACKGROUND

Pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has generally been found to be associated with climate. However, knowledge about how this association varies spatiotemporally is very limited, especially when considering the influence of local socioeconomic conditions. This study aims to identify multi-sourced HFMD environmental factors and further quantify the spatiotemporal nonstationary effects of various climate factors on HFMD occurrence.

METHODS

We propose an innovative method, named spatiotemporally varying coefficients (STVC) model, under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework, for exploring both spatial and temporal nonstationary effects in climate covariates, after controlling for socioeconomic effects. We use data of monthly county-level HFMD occurrence and data of related climate and socioeconomic variables in Sichuan, China from 2009 to 2011 for our experiments.

RESULTS

Cross-validation experiments showed that the STVC model achieved the best average prediction accuracy (81.98%), compared with ordinary (68.27%), temporal (72.34%), spatial (75.99%) and spatiotemporal (77.60%) ecological models. The STVC model also outperformed these models in the Bayesian model evaluation. In this study, the STVC model was able to spatialize the risk indicator odds ratio (OR) into local ORs to represent spatial and temporal varying disease-climate relationships. We detected local temporal nonlinear seasonal trends and spatial hot spots for both disease occurrence and disease-climate associations over 36 months in Sichuan, China. Among the six representative climate variables, temperature (OR = 2.59), relative humidity (OR = 1.35), and wind speed (OR = 0.65) were not only overall related to the increase of HFMD occurrence, but also demonstrated spatiotemporal variations in their local associations with HFMD.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that county-level HFMD interventions may need to consider varying local-scale spatial and temporal disease-climate relationships. Our proposed Bayesian STVC model can capture spatiotemporal nonstationary exposure-response relationships for detailed exposure assessments and advanced risk mapping, and offers new insights to broader environmental science and spatial statistics.

Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-mediated condition that predominantly affects children under 5 years of age. The tendency for outbreaks to peak in warmer summer months suggests a relationship between HFMD and weather patterns. We reviewed the English-language literature for articles describing a relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. Seventy-two studies meeting criteria were identified. A positive, statistically significant relationship was identified between HFMD cases and both temperature (61 of 67 studies, or 91.0%, reported a positive relationship) [CI 81.8-95.8%, P = 0.0001] and relative humidity (41 of 54 studies, or 75.9%) [CI 63.1-85.4%, P = 0.0001]. No significant relationship was identified between HFMD and precipitation, wind speed, and/or sunshine. Most countries reported a single peak of disease each year (most commonly early Summer), but subtropical and tropical climate zones were significantly more likely to experience a bimodal distribution of cases throughout the year (two peaks a year; most commonly late spring/early summer, with a smaller peak in autumn). The rising global incidence of HFMD, particularly in Pacific Asia, may be related to climate change. Weather forecasting might be used effectively in the future to indicate the risk of HFMD outbreaks and the need for targeted public health interventions.

Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China’s HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD’s spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model performed best. Both climate and socioeconomic variables were identified as significant risk factors for increasing HFMD incidence. The relative risk (RR) of HFMD at the local scale showed nonlinear temporal trends and was considerably spatially clustered in Mainland China. The first complete county-level spatiotemporal relative risk maps of HFMD were generated by this study. The new findings provide great potential for national county-level HFMD prevention and control, and the improved spatiotemporal zero-inflated model offers new insights for epidemic data with the zero-inflated problem in environmental epidemiology and public health.

Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.

METHODS

Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.

RESULTS

During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.

CONCLUSION

Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.

The association between diurnal temperature range and childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

In recent years, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been increasingly recognized as a critical challenge to disease control and prevention in China. Previous studies have found that meteorological factors such as mean temperature and relative humidity were associated with HFMD. However, little is known about whether the diurnal temperature range (DTR) has any impact on HFMD. This study aimed to quantify the impact of DTR on childhood HFMD in 18 cities in Sichuan Province. A distributed lag non-linear model was adopted to explore the temporal lagged association of daily temperature with age-, gender- and pathogen-specific HFMD. A total of 290 123 HFMD cases aged 0–14 years were reported in the 18 cities in Sichuan Province. The DTR–HFMD relationships were non-linear in all subgroups. Children aged 6–14 years and male children were more vulnerable to the temperature changes. Large DTR had the higher risk estimates of HFMD incidence in cases of EV71 infection, while small DTR had the higher risk estimates of HFMD incidence in cases of CV-A16 infection. Our study suggested that DTR played an important role in the transmission of HFMD with non-linear and delayed effects.

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Effects of ambient temperature on daily hospital admissions for mental disorders in Shanghai, China: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence for extreme ambient temperature effects on the risk of mental disorders (MDs) is limited. In this study, we evaluated the short-term effects of daily mean temperature on hospital admissions of MDs in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

We obtained daily hospital admission data for MDs, daily meteorological and ambient pollution data in Shanghai from January 2008 to December 2015. Adjusted for time trend, air pollution, relative humidity and other confounders, a quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to analyze the lag-exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature and hospital admissions for MDs.

RESULTS

Total daily hospital admissions for MDs during the study period were 93,971. With a reference of median temperature (18.3°C), there was a significant positive association between the temperature above threshold (24.6°C) and MD hospital admission visits at a lag of 0-1days. The relative risks of extreme hot temperatures (33.1°C, 99% percentile) over the lag 0-1days compared to median temperature were 1.266 (95% confidence intervals: 1.074-1.493). No effect of cold weather on the hospital admissions for MDs was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that extreme hot temperature poses significant risks on MD; health counseling and cooling measures should be considered for the susceptible population.

Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: A study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam

This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5days (95% CI 0.3-10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3days and 6days (95% CI 0.7-2.7 and 95% CI 0.8-2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6days (95% CI 0.2-0.9 and 95% CI 0.1-0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.

The exposure-response relationship between temperature and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region. Numerous studies have tried to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD but with inconsistent results, in particular for temperature. We aimed to characterize the relationship between temperature and HFMD in various locations and to investigate the potential heterogeneity.

METHODS

We retrieved the daily series of childhood HFMD counts (aged 0-12 years) and meteorological variables for each of 143 cities in mainland China in the period 2009-2014. We fitted a common distributed lag nonlinear model allowing for over dispersion to each of the cities to obtain the city-specific estimates of temperature-HFMD relationship. Then we pooled the city-specific estimates through multivariate meta-regression with city-level characteristics as potential effect modifiers.

RESULTS

We found that the overall pooled temperature-HFMD relationship was shown as an approximately inverted V shape curve, peaking at the 91th percentile of temperature with a risk ratio of 1.30 (95% CI: 1.23-1.37) compared to its 50th percentile. We found that 68.5% of the variations of city-specific estimates was attributable to heterogeneity. We identified rainfall and altitude as the two main effect modifiers.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a nonlinear relationship between temperature and HFMD. The temperature-HFMD relationship varies depending on geographic and climatic conditions. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of weather-HFMD relationship and provide evidences for related public health decisions.

Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China

Background

Over recent decades, hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a serious public health threat in the Asia-Pacific region because of its high rates of severe complications. Understanding the differences and similarities between mild and severe cases can be helpful in the control of HFMD. In this study, we compared the two types of HFMD cases in their temporal trends.

Methods

We retrieved the daily series of disease counts of mild and severe HFMD cases reported in mainland China in the period of 2009–2014. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to decompose each series into the long-term linear trend, periodic variations, and short-term fluctuations, and then we compared each component between two series separately.

Results

A total of 11,101,860 clinical HFMD cases together with 115,596 severe cases were included into this analysis. We found a biennial increase of 24.46 % (95 % CI: 22.80–26.14 %) for the baseline of disease incidence of mild cases, whereas a biennial decrease of 8.80 % (95 % CI: 7.26–10.31 %) was seen for that of severe cases. The periodic variations of both two series could be characterized by a mixture of biennial, annual, semi-annual and eight-monthly cycles. However, compared to the mild cases, we found the severe cases vary more widely for the biennial and annual cycle, and started its annual epidemic earlier. We also found the short-term fluctuations between two series were still significantly correlated at the current day with a correlation coefficient of 0.46 (95 % CI: 0.43–0.49).

Conclusions

We found some noticeable differences and also similarities between the daily series of mild and severe HFMD cases at different time scales. Our findings can help us to deepen the understanding of the transmission of different types of HFMD cases, and also provide evidences for the planning of the associated disease control strategies.

The Association between Ambient Temperature and Childhood Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Chengdu, China: A Distributed Lag Non-linear Analysis

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has recently been recognized as a critical challenge to disease control and public health response in China. This study aimed to quantify the association between temperature and HFMD in Chengdu. Daily HFMD cases and meteorological variables in Chengdu between January 2010 and December 2013 were obtained to construct the time series. A distributed lag non-linear model was performed to investigate the temporal lagged association of daily temperature with age- and gender-specific HFMD. A total of 76,403 HFMD cases aged 0–14 years were reported in Chengdu during the study period, and a bimodal seasonal pattern was observed. The temperature-HFMD relationships were non-linear in all age and gender groups, with the first peak at 14.0–14.1 °C and the second peak at 23.1–23.2 °C. The high temperatures had acute and short-term effects and declined quickly over time, while the effects in low temperature ranges were persistent over longer lag periods. Males and children aged <1 year were more vulnerable to temperature variations. Temperature played an important role in HFMD incidence with non-linear and delayed effects. The success of HFMD intervention strategies could benefit from giving more consideration to local climatic conditions.

Effects of Meteorological Parameters and PM10 on the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children in China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a globally-prevalent infectious disease. However, few data are available on prevention measures for HFMD. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the impacts of temperature, humidity, and air pollution, particularly levels of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter 10 micrometers (PM10), on the incidence of HFMD in a city in Eastern China. Daily morbidity, meteorological, and air pollution data for Ningbo City were collected for the period from January 2012 to December 2014. A total of 86,695 HFMD cases were enrolled in this study. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution to analyze the nonlinear lag effects of daily mean temperature, daily humidity, and found significant relationships with the incidence of HFMD; in contrast, PM10 level showed no relationship to the incidence of HFMD. Our findings will facilitate the development of effective preventive measures and early forecasting of HFMD outbreaks.