Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980-1986 and 2003-2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.

Linking climate and infectious disease trends in the Northern/Arctic Region

Recognition of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating health threats from climate change. Recent studies have reasoned about potential climate sensitivity of diseases in the Northern/Arctic Region, where climate change is particularly pronounced. By linking disease and climate data for this region, we here comprehensively quantify empirical climate-disease relationships. Results show significant relationships of borreliosis, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), Puumala virus infection, cryptosporidiosis, and Q fever with climate variables related to temperature and freshwater conditions. These data-driven results are consistent with previous reasoning-based propositions of climate-sensitive infections as increasing threats for humans, with notable exceptions for TBE and leptospirosis. For the latter, the data imply decrease with increasing temperature and precipitation experienced in, and projected for, the Northern/Arctic Region. This study provides significant data-based underpinning for simplified empirical assessments of the risks of several infectious diseases under future climate change.

A Francisella tularensis Chitinase Contributes to Bacterial Persistence and Replication in Two Major U.S. Tick Vectors

Nearly 100 years after the first report of tick-borne tularemia, questions remain about the tick vector(s) that pose the greatest risk for transmitting Francisella tularensis (Ft), the causative agent of tularemia. Additionally, few studies have identified genes/proteins required for Ft to infect, persist, and replicate in ticks. To answer questions about vector competence and Ft transmission by ticks, we infected Dermacentor variabilis (Dv),Amblyomma americanum (Aa), and Haemaphysalis longicornis (Hl; invasive species from Asia) ticks with Ft, finding that although Aa ticks initially become infected with 1 order of magnitude higher Ft, Ft replicated more robustly in Dv ticks, and did not persist in Hl ticks. In transmission studies, both Dv and Aa ticks efficiently transmitted Ft to naïve mice, causing disease in 57% and 46% of mice, respectively. Of four putative Ft chitinases, FTL1793 is the most conserved among Francisella sp. We generated a ΔFTL1793 mutant and found that ΔFTL1793 was deficient for infection, persistence, and replication in ticks. Recombinant FTL1793 exhibited chitinase activity in vitro, suggesting that FTL1793 may provide an alternative energy source for Ft in ticks. Taken together, Dv ticks appear to pose a greater risk for harboring and transmitting tularemia and FTL1793 plays a major role in promoting tick infections by Ft.

Mechanisms Affecting the Acquisition, Persistence and Transmission of Francisella tularensis in Ticks

Over 600,000 vector-borne disease cases were reported in the United States (U.S.) in the past 13 years, of which more than three-quarters were tick-borne diseases. Although Lyme disease accounts for the majority of tick-borne disease cases in the U.S., tularemia cases have been increasing over the past decade, with >220 cases reported yearly. However, when comparing Borrelia burgdorferi (causative agent of Lyme disease) and Francisella tularensis (causative agent of tularemia), the low infectious dose (<10 bacteria), high morbidity and mortality rates, and potential transmission of tularemia by multiple tick vectors have raised national concerns about future tularemia outbreaks. Despite these concerns, little is known about how F. tularensis is acquired by, persists in, or is transmitted by ticks. Moreover, the role of one or more tick vectors in transmitting F. tularensis to humans remains a major question. Finally, virtually no studies have examined how F. tularensis adapts to life in the tick (vs. the mammalian host), how tick endosymbionts affect F. tularensis infections, or whether other factors (e.g., tick immunity) impact the ability of F. tularensis to infect ticks. This review will assess our current understanding of each of these issues and will offer a framework for future studies, which could help us better understand tularemia and other tick-borne diseases.

Francisella tularensis Subspecies holarctica and Tularemia in Germany

Tularemia is a zoonotic disease caused by Francisella tularensis a small, pleomorphic, facultative intracellular bacterium. In Europe, infections in animals and humans are caused mainly by Francisella tularensis subspecies holarctica. Humans can be exposed to the pathogen directly and indirectly through contact with sick animals, carcasses, mosquitoes and ticks, environmental sources such as contaminated water or soil, and food. So far, F. tularensis subsp. holarctica is the only Francisella species known to cause tularemia in Germany. On the basis of surveillance data, outbreak investigations, and literature, we review herein the epidemiological situation-noteworthy clinical cases next to genetic diversity of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica strains isolated from patients. In the last 15 years, the yearly number of notified cases of tularemia has increased steadily in Germany, suggesting that the disease is re-emerging. By sequencing F. tularensis subsp. holarctica genomes, knowledge has been added to recent findings, completing the picture of genotypic diversity and geographical segregation of Francisella clades in Germany. Here, we also shortly summarize the current knowledge about a new Francisella species (Francisella sp. strain W12-1067) that has been recently identified in Germany. This species is the second Francisella species discovered in Germany.

Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden

Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm⁻²), medium (4.5 Wm⁻²), and high (8.5 Wm⁻²) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively.